Core Viewpoint - Wall Street is concerned about a potential recession impacting markets in 2025, with the Nasdaq Composite down 16% year-to-date. However, there are growth opportunities in companies like Reddit and Netflix that could yield significant returns in the coming years [1]. Group 1: Reddit - Reddit is positioned for growth in the $700 billion digital advertising market, benefiting from a large user base that includes high-intent shoppers [3]. - Reddit's advertising revenue grew 50% year-over-year in 2024, reaching $1.2 billion, with a notable acceleration of 60% growth in Q4 compared to the previous year [4]. - Approximately 50% of discussions on Reddit are product-related, increasing the platform's value to advertisers. Average revenue per unique user increased by 23% year-over-year in Q4, alongside a 39% growth in daily active unique users [5]. - The stock has decreased by 59% from recent highs, making it more attractive for investment despite potential short-term slowdowns in the digital ad market. Analysts project Reddit's total revenue to reach $3.5 billion by 2028, up from $1.3 billion last year [6]. - Reddit's stock trades at 32 times this year's earnings estimate, presenting a bargain for a company that could potentially double its revenue in a few years [7]. Group 2: Netflix - Netflix has shown strong performance since the market sell-off in 2022, with shares trading around $1,000 and continued momentum in new member sign-ups and margin expansion [8]. - The company reported a 12% year-over-year revenue increase, surpassing 300 million paid memberships, and earnings per share grew by 25% year-over-year [9]. - With over 5 billion people having internet access globally and 1.6 billion with broadband in 2024, Netflix is well-positioned to capture a significant share of this market due to its extensive content library and global presence [10]. - Netflix has invested billions in content production, resulting in a diverse catalog that appeals to various audiences, while also delivering growth in both revenue and earnings [11]. - Analysts expect Netflix's earnings to reach $37 by 2027, representing a 75% increase from trailing-12-month earnings, suggesting potential for similar returns on investment if the stock maintains its valuation [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - Reddit's stock has seen a significant rebound, primarily driven by broader market recovery and positive sentiment from Alphabet's earnings report, despite no specific news from the company [1][5]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Reddit shares increased by 26% for the week, reflecting a recovery from previous declines due to economic weakness [2]. - The stock jumped 20% over a three-day period from Tuesday to Thursday, followed by an additional 5.3% increase on Friday after Alphabet's strong earnings report [5]. Group 2: Economic Sensitivity - Reddit is considered economically sensitive, with most of its revenue generated from advertising, which tends to decline during economic downturns [4]. - The company is also focusing on artificial intelligence as part of its long-term strategy for monetizing content [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Reddit is set to report earnings next week, with analysts projecting a 52% revenue increase to $370 million and an expected per-share profit of $0.02 [6]. - The potential for stock growth exists if Reddit can maintain steady growth despite economic challenges [6].

Reddit could eclipse the AI server-maker's valuation by 2027.Super Micro Computer (SMCI 8.85%), more commonly known as Supermicro, lost more than two-thirds of its market value over the past 12 months. The server company's booming artificial intelligence (AI) business once made it a red-hot growth stock, but the bulls retreated as it struggled with accounting issues, a delayed 10-K filing, delisting threats, and regulatory subpoenas.Yet Supermicro dodged a delisting by turning in its long-overdue 10-K filin ...

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Market Overview - The stock market is experiencing pressure in 2025, with the S&P 500 index down approximately 9% and the Nasdaq Composite index down about 13.5% due to various catalysts including China's DeepSeek R-1 model and trade war concerns [1][2] Reddit Analysis - Reddit's stock has decreased by 52% from its high this year, primarily due to weaker-than-expected user engagement metrics reported in its fourth-quarter results [3] - Despite the decline, Reddit achieved a 71% year-over-year revenue growth, reaching $427.7 million in the fourth quarter, and daily average unique users increased by 39% year-over-year to 101.7 million [4] - Reddit is positioning itself as a significant player in the AI market, licensing data for APIs and AI model training, with the AI market projected to grow at a 20% compound annual growth rate, reaching $1 trillion by 2027 [6] - The company is leveraging AI to enhance content relevance and safety, aiming to expand its international reach [7] Hexcel Analysis - Hexcel's stock is down 30% from its high in 2025, largely due to supply chain disruptions affecting its major customers, Boeing and Airbus [8] - The company has lowered its full-year sales, earnings, and free cash flow guidance due to production rate increases for commercial aircraft not meeting expectations, particularly impacting the Airbus A350 program [9] - Despite near-term challenges, Hexcel has multiyear backlogs from Boeing and Airbus, and it can support higher production rates, indicating potential for significant cash flow growth when sales improve [10] - The revised guidance for 2025 indicates adjusted diluted earnings of $1.85 to $2.05 and free cash flow of $190 million, suggesting the stock is trading at a favorable valuation with long-term growth prospects [11]

Popular social network and forum site Reddit reported significant outages on Monday morning. The connection errors started at around 11:20 a.m. ET, according to the website Downdetector, which collects anecdotal reports from impacted users globally. At its peak, more than 90,000 users logged an outage report with the downtime tracking website.  At 11:52 a.m. ET, Reddit Status, the company’s website tracking its own outages, confirmed it was investigating “elevated errors” across the website and app. A few ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Attractive" industry view for North America [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights a framework of "visibility to free cash flow (FCF) vs valuation" to analyze potential durable outperformance in the current macroeconomic environment, with META, GOOGL, and UBER identified as top performers [1][10]. - The macroeconomic outlook includes muted GDP growth expectations of 0.6% and 0.5% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, alongside firming inflation and a steady Federal Reserve [2]. - The report emphasizes the interconnectedness of e-commerce and digital advertising, noting that e-commerce drives online advertising and vice versa, with META positioned as the most resilient in the face of tariff impacts [4][5]. Summary by Sections Macro Factors - The focus is on three macro factors: business confidence, hiring trends, and consumer spending health, which are critical for driving investment and hiring decisions [2]. Tariff Exposure - The report details the estimated exposure of U.S. imports from China across various e-commerce companies, with AMZN and RVLV having around 18% exposure, while PTON and FIGS have less than 2% [3][19]. - It discusses the potential ripple effects of China tariffs on digital advertising, particularly affecting smaller businesses and 1P/3P sellers [4]. Visibility vs Valuation Framework - The report employs a quadrant analysis to assess visibility and valuation support, indicating that companies with higher visibility on earnings and cash flow are likely to receive more investor capital first [10][11]. - META and GOOGL are highlighted for their high margin and reasonable valuations, with META favored due to its audience engagement factors and innovations [13]. Company-Specific Insights - CHWY is noted for its high resilience and FCF visibility due to its autoship model, while UBER is recognized for its smaller standard deviation of FCF in 2026 [14][15]. - Companies like BKNG and DASH are also mentioned for their visibility and execution capabilities, while FIGS and PTON face more risks due to their discretionary nature and tariff impacts [16][17]. Price Target Changes - The report outlines price target adjustments for several companies, including a reduction for GOOGL from $210 to $185 and for META from $660 to $615, reflecting lowered revenue estimates due to macroeconomic pressures [39][40].

Company Performance - Reddit Inc. closed at $96.46, reflecting a -1.83% change from the previous day, which is less than the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.17% [1] - Over the past month, Reddit's shares have decreased by 21.74%, underperforming the Computer and Technology sector's loss of 6.26% and the S&P 500's loss of 3.94% [1] Upcoming Earnings - The company's earnings report is scheduled for May 1, 2025, with an expected EPS of $0.03, indicating an 89.66% decline from the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is forecasted to be $373.57 million, representing a 53.76% increase compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous year [2] Full Year Projections - For the full year, earnings are projected at $1.12 per share and revenue at $1.8 billion, reflecting increases of +133.63% and +38.15% respectively from the prior year [3] Analyst Forecast Revisions - Recent revisions to analyst forecasts for Reddit Inc. are important as they reflect short-term business trends, with positive changes indicating analyst optimism about the company's profitability [4] Stock Performance and Zacks Rank - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), currently ranks Reddit Inc. at 3 (Hold), with the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate having decreased by 4.09% in the past month [6] - Historically, 1 ranked stocks have generated an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [6] Valuation Metrics - Reddit Inc. has a Forward P/E ratio of 87.98, which is significantly higher than the industry average Forward P/E of 25.15 [7] - The company also has a PEG ratio of 2.71, compared to the average PEG ratio of 1.91 for Internet-Software stocks [8] Industry Context - The Internet-Software industry is part of the Computer and Technology sector, currently holding a Zacks Industry Rank of 68, placing it in the top 28% of over 250 industries [9]

I recently joined The REIT Forum and if you are looking for more investment ideas like this one, get them exclusively at The REIT Forum with access to our subscriber only portfolios.When I last wrote about Reddit (NYSE: RDDT ), I had reiterated my “buy” rating with a price target of $275. Although I warned of growing risks of execution error amid heightened investor optimism as well as the possibility ofAmrita runs a boutique family office fund in beautiful Vancouver, where she leads the investment strategy ...

It is time to upgrade the stock of Reddit (NYSE: RDDT ). The stock has been hammered amidst the tariff war, as the company may be affected by a pullback in online advertising spending in the event of a recession. While tariffs appearJulian is the leader of the investing group Best Of Breed Growth Stocks where he only shares positions in stocks which have a large probability of delivering large alpha relative to the S&P 500. He also combines growth-oriented principles with strict valuation hurdles to add an ...