Group 1 - Riley Exploration Permian (REPX) plans to increase capital expenditures (capex) towards upstream development in 2026 after divesting its midstream capex obligations by selling its Dovetail Midstream subsidiary [2] Group 2 - The investing group Distressed Value Investing focuses on value opportunities and distressed plays, particularly in the energy sector, and is led by an analyst with over 15 years of experience [3]

Core Insights - Riley Exploration Permian (REPX) is focused on oil and gas exploration in the Permian Basin, having been formed from a reverse merger in 2020 [1] Company Overview - REPX specializes in the oil and gas sector, particularly in the Permian Basin, which is a significant area for energy production [1] Analyst Background - The author has a background in finance with a bachelor's degree and an MBA, emphasizing the importance of experience and interest in the field [1]

Core Viewpoint - Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. (NYSEAM:REPX) is highlighted as a promising oil stock with significant upside potential [1]. Financial Performance - For fiscal Q4 2025, the company reported an average total equivalent production of 35.5 MBoe/d, which includes oil production of 20.1 MBbls/d. The operating cash flow was $65 million, net income was $85 million, Adjusted EBITDAX was $66 million, Total Free Cash Flow was $1 million, and Upstream Free Cash Flow was $17 million [2]. - For the full year 2025, the company averaged 29.2 MBoe/d in total equivalent production, with oil production at 17.3 MBbls/d. The operating cash flow for the year was $213 million, and net income reached $161 million [3]. Future Guidance - The company provided guidance for full-year 2026, projecting total production between 35.0 - 37.0 MBoe/d, with oil production expected to be between 21.0 - 22.0 MBbls/d. Additionally, the activity-based capital expenditures before acquisitions are estimated to be between $190 - 210 million [3]. Company Overview - Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. is an independent oil and natural gas company focused on the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids primarily in Texas and New Mexico [4].

Core Insights - The article highlights the investment strategies of Paul Franke, a seasoned investor with 39 years of trading experience, emphasizing his contrarian stock selection style and algorithmic analysis of market data [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - Paul Franke has developed a system called "Victory Formation," which focuses on identifying supply/demand imbalances through specific stock price and volume movements [1] - The strategy recommends investors maintain a diversified portfolio of at least 50 well-positioned stocks and utilize stop-loss levels of 10% or 20% on individual investments to enhance market outperformance [1] Group 2: Focus Areas - The "Bottom Fishing Club" articles target deep value stocks or those showing significant positive technical momentum reversals [1] - The "Volume Breakout Report" articles analyze positive trend changes supported by strong price and volume trading activity [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the 11 oil stocks with the highest upside potential, highlighting their recent performance and future outlook in the context of market trends and investor sentiment [1][4]. Group 1: Market Trends and Investor Sentiment - Tom Lee from Fundstrat suggests that while the market is facing scary headlines, it is responding better than expected, indicating a potential market bottom [2]. - Signs of a market bottom include spikes in the VIX, retracing, and stocks turning positive despite negative news, suggesting a washout of bad sentiment [3]. Group 2: Methodology for Stock Selection - The list of oil stocks was compiled based on a consensus among analysts and popularity among elite hedge funds as of Q3 2025, focusing on companies with recent noteworthy developments [6]. - The strategy of imitating top hedge fund stock picks has historically outperformed the market, with a reported return of 427.7% since May 2014, surpassing benchmarks by 264 percentage points [6]. Group 3: Company Highlights - **Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. (NYSE:REPX)**: Reported Q4 and full-year 2025 results with an average production of 35.5 MBoe/d in Q4 and 29.2 MBoe/d for the full year, generating $213 million in operating cash flow and $161 million in net income [7][9]. - **Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. (NYSE:VIST)**: Goldman Sachs raised its price target to $66.90, with Q4 production reaching 135,000 BOEs per day, a 59% year-over-year increase. Total revenues for the quarter were $689 million, reflecting a 46% increase compared to the same quarter last year [11][12].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, net income increased by $69 million quarter-over-quarter, benefiting from a $72 million gain from the midstream sale and $20 million of higher hedging gains [19][22] - Adjusted EBITDAX increased by 3% quarter-over-quarter to $66 million, with margins rising from 59% to 63% [20] - Debt decreased by $120 million quarter-over-quarter, resulting in a balance of $255 million as of December 31, 2025 [22][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Oil production increased by more than 1,700 barrels per day or 9% quarter-over-quarter, with a 26% increase compared to Q4 2024 [8][9] - Full year oil production increased by 15% year-over-year, while total equivalent production increased by 29% [9] - Development activity counts were down 28% year-over-year, with 18 net wells drilled in 2025 [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - New Mexico oil production grew by 74% year-over-year, representing 34% of total company oil production in 2025, up from 23% in 2024 [11] - The company experienced pipeline maintenance constraints that pressured Waha pricing during Q4 2025 [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans for over 20% year-over-year oil volume growth in 2026, with a focus on significant increases in activity and spending [6][14] - A stock repurchase program of up to $100 million was authorized, with approximately 152,000 shares repurchased at a weighted average price of $26.54 [5] - The company aims to replace 100% of its drilled locations annually through strategic land acquisitions [92] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about 2026, highlighting a strong financial position and asset base [7] - The company remains flexible to moderate activity and spending if the oil price environment deteriorates [6] - Management noted that the Silverback acquisition continues to exceed expectations, producing at a 65% higher oil rate than anticipated [12] Other Important Information - The company achieved a total recordable incident rate of zero in 2025, reflecting a strong safety performance [9] - Core cash operating costs decreased by 13% quarter-over-quarter, with significant contributions from workover expenses [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you help us shape production cadence for 2026 and 2027? - Management indicated a forecasted dip in Q1 2026 due to downtime and deferred production, with expectations for a ramp-up in subsequent quarters [31] Question: How flexible is the capital allocation plan given current oil prices? - Management stated that while they have a solid plan for 2026, they have the flexibility to adjust rig operations based on market conditions [44] Question: Can you elaborate on completion optimization efforts? - Management discussed various strategies for completion optimization, including reduced sand usage and improved well performance [35][39] Question: Are there still opportunities for production optimization in New Mexico? - Management confirmed ongoing opportunities for optimization, including wellbore cleanouts and switching artificial lift methods [61] Question: How does the agreement with WaterBridge impact costs and efficiencies? - Management noted that while costs may increase, the agreement allows for full-scale development of the field [94]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, net income increased by $69 million quarter-over-quarter, benefiting from a $72 million gain from the midstream sale and $20 million of higher hedging gains [19][22] - Adjusted EBITDAX increased by 3% quarter-over-quarter to $66 million, with margins rising from 59% to 63% [20] - Debt decreased by $120 million quarter-over-quarter, resulting in a balance of $255 million as of December 31 [22][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Oil production increased by more than 1,700 barrels per day or 9% quarter-over-quarter, and by 26% year-over-year in Q4 2025 [8][9] - Full year oil production increased by 15% year-over-year, while total equivalent production increased by 29% [9] - In New Mexico, oil production grew by 74% year-over-year, representing 34% of total company oil production in 2025, up from 23% in 2024 [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Pipeline maintenance constrained Permian gas egress and pressured Waha pricing during Q4 2025 [17] - The company has a material amount of Waha basis hedged next year at -$1 to Henry Hub, which could translate to positive revenue starting in 2027 [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans for over 20% year-over-year oil volume growth in 2026, with a focus on flexibility to moderate activity based on oil price conditions [6][10] - A stock repurchase program of up to $100 million was authorized, with approximately 152,000 shares repurchased at a weighted average price of $26.54 [5] - The company aims to replace 100% of its drilling inventory annually, focusing on adding acreage in and around its existing footprint [93] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about 2026, citing a strong financial position and asset base, while acknowledging the need for flexibility in response to market conditions [7][10] - The company is focused on optimizing completion methods and reducing costs, with significant improvements noted in drilling efficiency and well performance [12][36] Other Important Information - The company achieved a total recordable incident rate of 0 in 2025, with 95% safe days [9] - The Silverback acquisition exceeded expectations, producing at a 65% higher oil rate than anticipated [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you help us shape production cadence for 2026 and 2027? - Management indicated that production is expected to increase each quarter in 2026, with a dip in Q1 due to downtime and deferred production [32][34] Question: How flexible is the capital allocation plan given current oil prices? - Management stated that while they have a solid plan for 2026, they have the flexibility to adjust rig operations based on market conditions [45] Question: Can you elaborate on completion optimization efforts? - Management discussed various strategies for completion optimization, including changes in sand usage and well performance improvements [36][40] Question: Are there still opportunities for production optimization in New Mexico? - Management confirmed ongoing opportunities for optimization in New Mexico, with successful integration of the Silverback acquisition [61][62] Question: How does the share repurchase program fit into overall capital allocation? - Management described the share repurchase program as a tool for opportunistic capital allocation, balancing between buybacks and development spending [88][90]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, oil production increased by over 1,700 barrels per day or 9% quarter-over-quarter, and by 26% compared to Q4 2024 [8][9] - Full year 2025 oil production increased by 15% year-over-year, while total equivalent production increased by 29% [9] - Adjusted EBITDAX increased by 3% quarter-over-quarter to $66 million, with margins rising from 59% to 63% [20] - Net income increased by $69 million quarter-over-quarter, benefiting from non-recurring items such as a $72 million gain from the midstream sale [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Development activity in 2025 was modest, with 18 net wells drilled, 28% fewer than in 2024, and 16.3 net wells turned to sales, 23% fewer than in 2024 [10] - New Mexico oil production grew by 74% year-over-year, representing 34% of total company oil production in 2025, up from 23% in 2024 [11][12] - The Silverback acquisition exceeded expectations, producing at a 65% higher oil rate than anticipated [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Pipeline maintenance constrained Permian gas egress, impacting Waha pricing during the quarter [17] - The company has a material amount of Waha basis hedged for the next year, which could translate to positive revenue starting in 2027 [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company authorized a stock repurchase program of up to $100 million and began repurchasing shares in January 2026 [5] - For 2026, the company forecasts over 20% year-over-year oil volume growth, with plans for significant increases in activity and spending [5][13] - The company aims to replace 100% of its drilling inventory annually through strategic land acquisitions [90] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about 2026, citing a strong financial position and asset base [6] - The company plans to remain flexible and moderate activity if oil prices deteriorate [5] - Management highlighted the importance of the new pipeline infrastructure expected to be operational in Q3 2026, which will support increased production [33] Other Important Information - The company reduced its debt by $120 million during Q4 2025, enhancing financial flexibility [4][21] - Capital expenditures for Q4 2025 were $50 million, reflecting a return to normalized upstream activity [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you help us shape production cadence for 2026 and expectations for capital efficiency in 2027? - Management indicated production is expected to increase each quarter in 2026, with a dip in Q1 due to downtime and deferred production [30][31] Question: How flexible is the company's plan given the current oil price environment? - Management stated they have a solid plan for 2026 and can adjust rig activity based on market conditions, emphasizing flexibility [42] Question: Can you elaborate on completion optimization and its impact on well performance? - Management discussed various strategies for completion optimization, including reduced sand usage and improved drilling techniques, leading to cost savings and better well performance [34][37] Question: Will the agreement with WaterBridge lower costs or improve efficiencies? - Management clarified that while costs may increase, the agreement allows for full-scale development of the field, enhancing overall efficiency [91] Question: How is the company approaching hedging in a volatile market? - Management emphasized a proactive approach to hedging, with a significant portion of forecasted oil volumes hedged at favorable prices [95]

Q4'25 Earnings Presentation March 2026 None of the information contained in this presentation has been audited by any independent auditor. This presentation is prepared as a convenience for securities analysts and investors and may be useful as a reference tool. Riley Permian may elect to modify the format or discontinue publication at any time, without notice to securities analysts or investors. Forward-Looking Statements Use of non-GAAP Financial Information This presentation contains projections and othe ...

分组1 - Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. (REPX) reported quarterly earnings of $1.35 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.83 per share, and showing an increase from $0.96 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of +63.64% [1] - The company posted revenues of $97.28 million for the quarter ended December 2025, which was 11.73% below the Zacks Consensus Estimate and a decrease from $102.69 million year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times and topped consensus revenue estimates two times [2] 分组2 - The stock has increased approximately 11.6% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has declined by 0.4% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.76 on revenues of $109 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $3.56 on revenues of $461.2 million [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank for Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States is currently in the bottom 14% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges for the sector [8]