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Super Micro Computer: Anatomy Of A Stock Collapse (Technical Analysis)
Seeking Alpha· 2024-11-08 19:11
Core Insights - Super Micro Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ: SMCI) has experienced significant trend reversals in its financial market performance over the past year, marking it as one of the most notable stories in 2024 [1]. Group 1 - The company has seen extreme fluctuations in investor sentiment, leading to substantial changes in stock performance [1].
What's Going on With Super Micro Stock?
The Motley Fool· 2024-11-08 16:14
Core Insights - The financial statements of the artificial intelligence business are delayed, leading to increased volatility in stock prices [1] - Super Micro Computer (SMCI) stock has significantly declined from its earlier highs in 2024, raising concerns among investors [1]
SMCI: Buy opportunity or a signal for caution amid auditor exit
Finbold· 2024-11-08 13:07
Core Viewpoint - Super Micro Computer (SMCI) faces significant challenges, including potential delisting from Nasdaq, following accounting allegations and the resignation of its auditor, Ernst & Young, leading to a drastic decline in market capitalization from $70 billion to $12.6 billion, with stock trading 77% below its all-time high [1] Group 1: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest a potential rebound for SMCI, as it recently touched its 200-week moving average, a level historically associated with buying opportunities [2] - The one-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered oversold territory, indicating potential exhaustion in selling pressure, which may signal a market bottom [3] - SMCI's price aligns with significant Fibonacci retracement levels, suggesting it is near a long-term buying range, making it an attractive entry point for long-term investors [3] Group 2: Accounting and Governance Issues - SMCI is under scrutiny due to accounting irregularities alleged by Hindenburg Research, coinciding with a Department of Justice investigation, raising concerns about financial transparency [4] - Ernst & Young's resignation as SMCI's auditor, citing unwillingness to be associated with the company's financial statements, led to a nearly 33% drop in stock price in one day [5] Group 3: Market Position and Product Strengths - Despite governance issues, SMCI holds a strong position in the AI hardware market, offering innovative direct liquid cooling systems that are energy-efficient and cost-effective [6] - The company reported over 100,000 GPU shipments and more than 2,000 liquid-cooled racks delivered since June 2024, indicating robust operational performance [6] - Strategic partnerships with major chipmakers like Nvidia enhance SMCI's competitive position, although there are indications that Nvidia may shift orders to other suppliers due to SMCI's recent challenges [6] Group 4: Financial Performance and Valuation - SMCI's revenue increased from $3.3 billion in fiscal 2020 to $14.9 billion in 2024, demonstrating solid year-over-year growth [7] - However, unaudited Q1 fiscal 2025 results showed $6 billion in revenue and adjusted earnings of $0.73 per share, missing analyst expectations and raising concerns about financial stability [7] - The company is likely to miss the November 16 deadline for its delayed annual report, which could lead to a shift to over-the-counter markets and significant losses [8] - Trading at a forward earnings multiple of 8.9x, SMCI appears attractively priced, but this valuation reflects ongoing uncertainties surrounding the company [8]
Super Micro Computer: Delisting Fears Played Out As Investors Bail
Seeking Alpha· 2024-11-07 13:30
JR Research is an opportunistic investor. He was recognized by TipRanks as a Top Analyst. He was also recognized by Seeking Alpha as a "Top Analyst To Follow" for Technology, Software, and Internet, as well as for Growth and GARP. He identifies attractive risk/reward opportunities supported by robust price action to potentially generate alpha well above the S&P 500. He has also demonstrated outperformance with his picks. He focuses on identifying growth investing opportunities that present the most attracti ...
Super Micro Computer Stock Tumbles Again. Is the Worst Over Yet?
The Motley Fool· 2024-11-06 17:58
A disappointing preliminary earnings report weighed on the struggling stock.Things have gone from bad to worse for Super Micro Computer (SMCI -23.01%) over the last two months as a short-seller attack snowballed into a delay in its 10-K filing, an investigation by the Department of Justice, and, just last week, the resignation of Ernst & Young as its auditor.Last night, the company added weak preliminary fiscal first-quarter earnings to the list of reasons the stock is spiraling. Management also fanned conc ...
Super Micro shares plummet 22% after financial update heightens investor concerns
CNBC· 2024-11-06 17:21
Charles Liang, chief executive officer of Super Micro Computer Inc., during the Computex conference in Taipei, Taiwan, on Wednesday, June 5, 2024. The trade show runs through June 7.Super Micro shares plunged 22% on Wednesday to their lowest level since May of last year after the embattled server maker issued disappointing unaudited financials and failed to provide specifics plans to keep its Nasdaq listing. The stock dropped to $21.55 as of early afternoon and is now down 82% from its high in March, a sell ...
Super Micro Computer Stock Crashes Again After Earnings. What Happens Next?
The Motley Fool· 2024-11-06 17:16
Uncertainty is what the stock market hates most.In today's video, I will talk about Super Micro Computer's (SMCI -22.82%) preliminary first-quarter earnings report. Watch the short video to learn more, consider subscribing, and click the special offer link below.*Stock prices used were from the trading day of Nov. 5, 2024. The video was published on Nov. 5, 2024. ...
Super Micro Computer Stock Slammed With Dismal Updates
Schaeffers Investment Research· 2024-11-06 16:25
Super Micro Computer Inc (NASDAQ:SMCI) stock is plummeting today, down 23.8% at $21.10 at last glance, after the company's current-quarter earnings and sales forecasts missed Wall Street's estimates. The computer hardware name also posted disappointing fiscal first-quarter results, while also disclosing that it had still not filed a 10-K annual report -- which was previously pushed back in late August --with uncertainty about its filing. This isn't SMCI's first rough day in the last week. The stock fell 32. ...
Supermicro stock crashes — Is Nvidia safe from the fallout?
Finbold· 2024-11-06 12:12
The downfall of Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI) continues to stir market uncertainties. After a series of serious allegations, investors have abandoned ship in droves — but that is not the primary concern on the minds of investors.As a key player in the semiconductor space, and thus, an important player in the burgeoning AI market, SMCI’s goings-on could stand to have an impact on market favorite Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA).Supermicro is a significant customer for the chipmaker — and seeing as how it could be ...
Super Micro Computer(SMCI) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2024-11-06 01:37
Financial Data and Key Metrics - Preliminary fiscal Q1 net revenue was in the range of $5.9 to $6 billion, up 181% year-on-year, driven by strong AI demand [3] - Preliminary non-GAAP gross margin was approximately 13.3%, and non-GAAP operating margin was approximately 9.9%, both higher than the previous quarter [3] - Q1 GAAP net income estimated at $433 to $443 million, and non-GAAP net income at $483 to $493 million [6] - Q1 operating cash flow was approximately $407 million, an improvement of $1 billion quarter-over-quarter [7] - Q1 closing inventory was approximately $5 billion, with CapEx for Q1 at $42 million and positive free cash flow of $365 million [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics - AI contributed over 70% of revenues across enterprise and cloud service provider markets [6] - The company deployed the world's largest DLC AI super cluster with 100,000 NVIDIA GPUs, reflecting strong engineering and logistics capabilities [3] - The DLC liquid cooling market share is expected to be at least 10 times more than last year due to product maturity and rapid AI growth [4] Market Data and Key Metrics - The company expects 15% to 30% of new data centers to adopt liquid-cooled infrastructure in the next 12 months [4] - The company is expanding its production facilities in Silicon Valley, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Europe, with plans to scale up further [5] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The company is leveraging its data center building block solution (DCBPS) to reduce time-to-delivery and time-to-online for customers, significantly improving efficiency [4] - The company is focusing on liquid-cooled data centers, with its new SuperCloud Composer (SCC) providing end-to-end management from chip level to data center cooling towers [4] - The company is expanding its global manufacturing capacity, including a new Malaysia campus, to support future growth [5] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management remains confident in the company's ability to service customers and partners despite recent challenges, with strong growth driven by the AI revolution [3] - The company is optimistic about future growth, particularly with the upcoming availability of new GPU chips like Blackwell, which are expected to drive market share and revenue growth [9] - Management highlighted the importance of the company's liquid cooling solutions, which are gaining traction due to their energy efficiency and performance benefits [5] Other Important Information - The company is working diligently to select a new independent auditor and complete its fiscal year 2024 audit [8] - The special committee has completed its investigation and found no evidence of fraud or misconduct, recommending remedial measures to strengthen internal governance [2] Q&A Session Summary Question: Revenue came in at the lower end of guidance. Is this due to market share losses or delayed financial filings? - Answer: The lower revenue was primarily due to customers waiting for the new Blackwell chip, with the company's liquid cooling solutions fully ready for deployment once the chips are available [9] Question: Gross margins were robust but are expected to decline. Is the target of 14-17% gross margin still achievable? - Answer: The company expects gross margins to improve as new GPU chips become available and with the help of its data center building block solution and SuperCloud Composer [10] Question: What is the expected revenue contribution from Blackwell in Q1 and Q2? - Answer: The company did not provide specific revenue guidance for Blackwell but expects strong growth once the chips are available [19] Question: Are there any risks to supply or allocations from NVIDIA due to the auditor and filing issues? - Answer: The company maintains a strong relationship with NVIDIA and does not expect any negative impact on allocations [19] Question: How is the company managing its working capital and access to capital? - Answer: The company has raised $4 billion in working capital through equity and convertible debt, leaving it in a strong position to meet its needs [14] Question: What is the status of the company's liquid cooling production capacity and supply chain efficiency? - Answer: The company has shipped over 2,000 liquid-cooled racks and is focused on further improving efficiency and capacity, with plans to expand production facilities globally [20] Question: What is the company's relationship with NVIDIA, and are there any changes to allocations? - Answer: The company has a deep, long-standing relationship with NVIDIA and has confirmed that there are no changes to allocations [23]