Group 1 - The article discusses the current state of Target (NYSE: TGT) following a disappointing Q2 report, suggesting that despite the challenges, there remains a basic bullish scenario for the company [1] - The author, Howard Jay Klein, has extensive experience in the casino and gaming sector, having worked with major operations such as Ballys, Trump Taj Mahal, Mohegan Sun, and Caesars Palace [1] - Klein emphasizes the importance of management quality in informing investment ideas, positioning himself as a value investor [1] Group 2 - The article promotes a subscription service called The House Edge, which provides in-depth research on the casino and gaming sector [1] - It mentions a forthcoming book titled "The Smartest ever Guide to Gaming Stocks," which will be available for free to existing members and new subscribers [1]

Group 1 - Japan's July import and export data, along with June's core machinery orders, are scheduled for release [1] - China's August one-year and five-year loan market quoted rates will be announced [1] - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference regarding the preparations for the military parade [1] Group 2 - New Zealand's central bank will announce its official cash rate and hold a monetary policy press conference [1] - The UK will release its July Consumer Price Index (CPI) [1] - The Eurozone's final July CPI will be published [1] Group 3 - Major companies including Baidu, iQIYI, and Kingsoft Cloud are set to release their earnings reports after the Hong Kong stock market closes [1] - U.S. companies such as Lowe's, Target, and Estée Lauder will report their earnings before the market opens [1] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its weekly crude oil inventory report [1] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve will publish the minutes from the July FOMC monetary policy meeting [1] - The President of the Atlanta Federal Reserve will discuss economic outlook [1] - Google will hold a press conference to launch new Pixel brand hardware [1]

Core Insights - The 2025 Q2 earnings season is concluding with strong earnings growth and many companies exceeding expectations, while Q3 expectations have also increased [1] Retail Performance - Walmart (WMT) has significantly outperformed Target (TGT) in recent years, benefiting from a more stable product mix and strong digital sales [2][4] - Walmart's global eCommerce sales grew 22% year-over-year, and comparable store sales in the US increased by 4.5%, with expectations for Q3 at 4.2% [5][6] - Target has struggled with a decline in comparable store sales by 3.8% year-over-year and overall sales down 2.8%, with expectations for a further decline of 2.9% [10][18] Digital Efforts - Target's digital comparable sales grew 4.7% year-over-year, and same-day delivery through Target Circle 360 increased by 36%, indicating some success in its digital strategy despite overall sales challenges [12][16] Market Position - The disparity in performance is attributed to Target's higher share of discretionary merchandise, which has been a disadvantage in the post-COVID environment, while Walmart's focus on staple products has provided consistent demand [18]

At Home Depot, it's up 3% today despite a slight miss on the top and bottom lines. It second straight quarter of missing estimates. Investors were encouraged by the company standing by its fullear guidance, expecting comparable sales to rise about 1%.CFO Richard McFale also told CNBC that comp sales in July were up 3.3% from the same quarter in 2024. It's the best monthly comp of the year. So, sticking with retail, Target is set to report earnings tomorrow before the bell.The stock is tracking for its third ...

Core Insights - Target Corporation is set to release its second-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings on August 20, with projected revenues of $24.91 billion, reflecting a 2.1% decline year-over-year, and earnings expected at $2.09 per share, indicating an 18.7% drop from the previous year [1][7]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter revenues is $24.91 billion, down 2.1% from the same period last year [1][7]. - Earnings per share are projected at $2.09, a decrease of 18.7% compared to the year-ago quarter [1][7]. - The company has a trailing four-quarter average negative earnings surprise of 3.2%, with the last quarter's earnings missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 19.8% [2]. Earnings Estimates - Current quarter earnings estimate stands at $2.09, with a year-over-year growth estimate of -18.68% [3]. - The number of estimates for the current quarter is 13, with a high estimate of $2.48 and a low estimate of $1.90 [3]. - Comparable sales are expected to decrease by 3.3%, with average transaction amounts and the number of transactions anticipated to drop by 1.3% and 2%, respectively [11]. Strategic Initiatives - Target's synergistic approach, including a strong brand presence and expanding e-commerce capabilities, is expected to support second-quarter performance [8]. - Investments in AI-driven innovation and operational efficiencies through supply-chain improvements are anticipated to bolster results [8]. - Ongoing digitization efforts, such as same-day delivery and curbside pickup, are likely to enhance customer engagement and digital penetration [9]. Challenges - Target faces challenges with weakening store traffic and declining comparable sales, indicating softer consumer engagement in physical retail [10]. - Margin pressures from markdown activities, rising digital fulfillment expenses, and tariff exposure are likely to impact profitability [10].

Core Insights - Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) aims to secure 1 gigawatt (GW) of capacity by 2026, targeting "mid-single digit billions of dollars in revenues" in the mid-term [1][4] - The company plans to achieve 220 megawatts (MW) of connected power by 2025, including 100 MW of active power, with new data centers in the UK, Israel, New Jersey, and capacity expansion in Finland [2][11] - Nebius has raised its 2025 annualized run rate (ARR) guidance to $900 million to $1.1 billion, up from $750 million to $1 billion, citing accelerating AI demand [4][11] Capacity Expansion - The 1 GW capacity target positions Nebius to benefit from increasing demand for AI compute, with an annualized run rate (ARR) increasing from $249 million in March to $430 million in June [3] - The company is focusing on greenfield development due to lower total cost of ownership, which is nearly 20% below the market average [2] Competitive Landscape - Intense competition exists in the AI infrastructure space, with other players also expanding capacity to capture demand [5] - CoreWeave (CRWV) is ramping up capacity aggressively, targeting over 900 MW of active power by year-end and raising its 2025 revenue guidance to $5.15-$5.35 billion [6][7] Market Positioning - Microsoft (MSFT) is a dominant player in the tech space, rapidly expanding its Azure platform for AI workloads, having added over 2 GW of new datacenter capacity in the past year [8][9] - Nebius shares have gained 161.9% year to date, outperforming the Internet – Software and Services industry's growth of 26.2% [10]

Retail Performance & Trends - Target has been lagging behind its peers, particularly Walmart, despite different business mixes [1][2] - None of the major big box retailers, including Walmart, Costco, and Best Buy, have confirmed new highs in the S&P 500 [4][6] - Potential opportunity exists if retailers have beats and raises across the board, but this is considered unlikely [7] External Factors & Challenges - Retailers face headwinds related to the potential for a protracted trade war [5] - Investors are concerned about retailers without a "milk and eggs component" (essential goods), suggesting merchandise mix is crucial [14] - Tariffs' impact may only be significantly felt for half the quarter, and the market has already priced some of it in [13] - High credit card bills could negatively impact demand after the back-to-school season [15] Home Improvement Sector - Home Depot is considered an important stock, with details about the housing market being closely monitored [8][9] - High interest rates are seen as potentially beneficial for Home Depot, as homeowners are more likely to improve existing homes rather than move [10][12] - Home Depot expects its "pro business" to return to growth in 2025 [11] Resilient Retailers - Walmart and Home Depot are considered resilient in the face of tariff concerns [16]

Core Insights - Target (TGT) and Walmart (WMT) are both major retail stocks trading near $100, but they are experiencing different market dynamics, with Walmart at a 52-week high and Target over 35% below its peak [1][2] Q2 Expectations - Target's Q2 sales are projected to decline by 2% to $24.91 billion compared to $25.45 billion a year ago, with earnings expected to fall approximately 20% to $2.06 per share from $2.57 in the prior year [3] - Walmart's Q2 sales are anticipated to increase by more than 3% to $175.51 billion from $169.34 billion in the previous period, with EPS expected to rise by 9% to $0.73 from $0.67 [4] Stock Performance Overview - Walmart's core business, particularly in grocery and essential items, is thriving, contributing nearly 60% of its sales, while Target is more exposed to discretionary categories that are struggling [5][6] - Walmart's stock has gained 11% this year, outperforming the broader market and Amazon, while Target's shares have declined by 22% [7] Valuation Comparison - Target's stock is trading at 13.7X forward earnings, significantly lower than Walmart's 38.4X and the S&P 500's 24.6X, indicating a more appealing valuation despite Walmart's competitive advantage [9] - Target's valuation is also below its decade-long high of 30.4X forward earnings and its median of 15.7X, while Walmart is near its decade peaks [10] Dividend Comparison - Both companies are recognized as Dividend Kings, but Target offers a more attractive annual dividend yield of 4.43%, compared to Walmart's 0.94% and the S&P 500's average of 1.15% [12] Conclusion & Final Thoughts - Long-term investors may find Target's stock appealing due to its valuation, while Walmart's near-term outlook justifies a premium for its stock [14] - The investment decision hinges on whether investors prefer Target's long-term value or Walmart's growth and defensive safety in the current market [15]

Market Overview - Stocks opened cautiously higher but ended mixed, indicating potential volatility throughout the week as Wall Street anticipates clues on rate cuts from the upcoming Fed minutes and Jerome Powell's speech [1][6] - The July jobs report was significantly lower than expected, which has increased expectations for a quarter-point rate cut at the next Fed meeting in September, with some speculating a half-point reduction [2][5] Retail Earnings - Major retailers are set to report earnings this week, providing insights into consumer spending amidst higher tariffs and persistent inflation [7] - Walmart is expected to show strong underlying momentum in its fiscal second-quarter results, with a justified valuation of 38.5 times forward earnings due to significant margin expansion opportunities [8][9] - Target is anticipated to report year-over-year declines in both revenue and earnings, leading to a downgrade by BofA Securities to Underperform, with a lowered price target of $93, indicating over 11% downside potential [10][12] Competitive Landscape - Target faces increasing long-term sales and margin risks due to slowing digital sales growth, competitive threats from Walmart and Amazon, and various pricing pressures [11] - The consensus recommendation for Target among analysts is a Hold, with a mix of ratings reflecting cautious sentiment [12] Pharmaceutical Developments - Novo Nordisk's shares rose 3.7% following the accelerated FDA approval of its obesity drug, Wegovy, for treating a serious liver disease, which may help shift momentum for the company after a challenging start to the year [13][14]

Earnings Season Overview - The second quarter earnings season has been successful with more beats and raises than misses, particularly led by the Mag 7 stocks [1] - Nvidia's upcoming report is highly anticipated [1] Retail Sector Focus - This week's focus is on major retailers to assess price increases, inflation, tariff impacts, and consumer behavior [2][3] - Key retailers to watch include Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT), along with home improvement retailers like Home Depot (HD) and Lowe's (LOW) [3] Home Improvement Retailers (Home Depot & Lowe's) - Home Depot (HD) has a strong earnings surprise track record with only one miss in the last five years [4] - Home Depot's earnings have declined in the last couple of years due to housing market conditions and tariffs, with a projected earnings decline of 1.4% to 4%, but a rebound is expected next year [5][6] - Lowe's (LOW) also has a great earnings surprise track record with earnings expected to decline but then recover, projecting a 2.4% to 4% gain this year and another in 2027 [7][8] - Both Home Depot and Lowe's shares haven't significantly declined as a turnaround is expected and priced in [9] General Retailers (Walmart & Target) - Walmart (WMT) has been performing strongly, with shares attempting to break out, and earnings looking better than Home Depot and Lowe's [9][10] - Walmart's valuation is at 38 times earnings, with a strong earnings surprise track record [10] - Target (TGT) is struggling with declining earnings, trading near 5-year lows, and a 15.6% decline expected for this year [12][13] - Both Walmart and Target are being watched for pricing strategies and consumer buying behavior, considering factors like back-to-school shopping and groceries [11][12][14] Specialty Retailer (Estee Lauder) - Estee Lauder (EL) has a strong earnings track record with mostly beats, but earnings have declined, especially due to the struggling Chinese consumer [15] - Estee Lauder's earnings are expected to improve in the next couple of years, but a 42% decline is expected this year [16] - Estee Lauder's forward PE is not cheap at 42 times, even with the share price decline [16] - Tariffs are impacting beauty products, with E.L.F beauty raising prices, and Estee Lauder's response is being monitored [18]