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摩根大通:汽车估值对比表
摩根· 2025-04-27 03:56
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" (OW) rating to General Motors (GM) and Ford, while Tesla and Rivian are rated "Underweight" (UW) [6][7]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing varied performance metrics across different companies, with GM and Ford showing potential upside in their stock prices, while Tesla and Rivian face significant downside risks [6][7]. - The report highlights the importance of valuation metrics such as EV/EBITDA, P/E ratios, and sales growth projections for assessing investment opportunities within the automotive sector [6][22]. Global Auto OEMs Investment Comparables - General Motors (GM) has a current price of $44.57 with a market cap of $43.067 billion and a target price of $53.00, indicating a 19% upside potential [6]. - Ford (F) is priced at $9.63 with a market cap of $38.294 billion and a target price of $11.00, representing a 14% upside [6]. - Ferrari (RACE) is valued at $439.97 with a target price of $460.00, showing a 5% upside [6]. - Tesla (TSLA) is currently priced at $241.37 with a target price of $120.00, indicating a -50% downside [6]. - Rivian (RIVN) has a price of $11.60 with a target price of $11.00, reflecting a -5% downside [6]. Global Auto Parts Suppliers Valuation Metrics - The average EV/EBITDA for US auto parts suppliers is projected at 1.8x for 2024, with a corresponding EBITDA margin of 12% [22]. - Aptiv (APTV) is rated "Overweight" with a current price of $51.71 and a target price of $102, indicating a 97% upside [22]. - Borg Warner (BWA) is rated "Overweight" with a price of $26.45 and a target price of $46, representing a 74% upside [22]. - Lear Corp (LEA) is rated "Overweight" with a price of $79.42 and a target price of $140, indicating a 76% upside [22]. Performance Metrics - The report indicates that the average revenue CAGR for US auto parts suppliers is projected to be 2% from 2023 to 2025 [74]. - The EBITDA margin for US auto parts suppliers is expected to be around 12% in 2025, with some companies showing higher margins [74][83]. - The report also highlights the financial returns of various suppliers, with some companies achieving significant returns on invested capital (ROIC) [54][56].
Gentherm(THRM) - 2025 Q1 - Quarterly Report
2025-04-24 20:02
[Part I. Financial Information](index=3&type=section&id=Part%20I.%20Financial%20Information) [Financial Statements (Unaudited)](index=3&type=section&id=Item%201.%20Financial%20Statements%20(Unaudited)) For Q1 2025, Gentherm reported a net loss of $0.1 million, a significant decline from $14.8 million net income in Q1 2024, driven by revenue decrease, lower margins, and foreign currency loss, while total assets increased to $1.34 billion and liabilities rose from increased debt [Consolidated Condensed Balance Sheets](index=3&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Condensed%20Balance%20Sheets) As of March 31, 2025, total assets increased to $1.34 billion from $1.25 billion at year-end 2024, driven by higher cash, receivables, and inventory, while total liabilities rose to $697.7 million due to increased long-term debt, and shareholders' equity also increased to $646.5 million Balance Sheet Highlights (in thousands) | Account | March 31, 2025 | December 31, 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Assets** | | | | Cash and cash equivalents | $163,142 | $134,134 | | Accounts receivable, net | $284,241 | $258,112 | | Inventory, net | $235,988 | $227,356 | | Total current assets | $764,044 | $684,015 | | Total assets | $1,344,246 | $1,247,556 | | **Liabilities & Equity** | | | | Accounts payable | $243,224 | $226,815 | | Long-term debt, less current maturities | $262,034 | $220,064 | | Total liabilities | $697,718 | $630,609 | | Total shareholders' equity | $646,528 | $616,947 | [Consolidated Condensed Statements of (Loss) Income](index=4&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Condensed%20Statements%20of%20(Loss)%20Income) For Q1 2025, the company reported a net loss of $0.1 million, a significant decline from $14.8 million net income in Q1 2024, primarily due to a $10.3 million foreign currency loss and a $2.2 million loss on asset sale, despite only a slight decrease in product revenues to $353.9 million Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024 Income Statement (in thousands, except per share data) | Metric | Q1 2025 | Q1 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Product revenues | $353,854 | $356,015 | | Gross margin | $86,465 | $88,753 | | Operating income | $17,061 | $18,049 | | Foreign currency (loss) gain | $(10,298) | $2,549 | | Net (loss) income | $(128) | $14,785 | | Diluted (loss) earnings per share | $(0.00) | $0.47 | [Consolidated Condensed Statements of Cash Flows](index=6&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Condensed%20Statements%20of%20Cash%20Flows) In Q1 2025, net cash used in operating activities increased to $13.3 million, investing activities used $10.5 million, while financing activities provided $40.7 million from debt borrowings, resulting in an ending cash balance of $163.1 million Cash Flow Summary (in thousands) | Activity | Q1 2025 | Q1 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net cash used in operating activities | $(13,344) | $(10,322) | | Net cash used in investing activities | $(10,534) | $(8,831) | | Net cash provided by (used in) financing activities | $40,739 | $(1,534) | | Net increase (decrease) in cash | $29,008 | $(24,566) | | Cash and cash equivalents at end of period | $163,142 | $125,107 | [Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Condensed Financial Statements](index=8&type=section&id=Notes%20to%20Unaudited%20Consolidated%20Condensed%20Financial%20Statements) The notes detail significant accounting policies and events, including two new restructuring plans in Europe and Asia, a $2.3 million loss on the former headquarters sale, potential material costs from Volkswagen/Porsche recalls, and segment performance showing slight automotive revenue decline and medical revenue increase - In February 2025, the company initiated the '2025 EMEA Plan' to close its facility in Plzeň, Czech Republic, expecting cash costs of **$6-9 million**, and the '2025 Asia Plan' to relocate manufacturing in China, expecting cash costs of **$3-4 million**. In Q1 2025, restructuring expenses of **$4.5 million** were recognized[34](index=34&type=chunk)[37](index=37&type=chunk)[42](index=42&type=chunk) - The company is involved in two recent recalls. One by Volkswagen for a fuel pump component from the acquired Alfmeier business, and another by VW and Porsche for a passenger occupant detection system related to a Gentherm seat heating mat. The company cannot reasonably estimate the potential costs but notes they could be **material**[58](index=58&type=chunk)[59](index=59&type=chunk) - In January 2025, the company sold its former headquarters in Northville, Michigan, for **$3.74 million** in cash, resulting in a loss on sale of **$2.31 million**[29](index=29&type=chunk) Segment Product Revenues (in thousands) | Segment | Q1 2025 | Q1 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Automotive | $341,874 | $344,638 | | Medical | $11,980 | $11,377 | | **Total** | **$353,854** | **$356,015** | [Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations](index=25&type=section&id=Item%202.%20Management's%20Discussion%20and%20Analysis%20of%20Financial%20Condition%20and%20Results%20of%20Operations) Management discusses a 0.6% decrease in Q1 2025 product revenues to $353.9 million, leading to a net loss of $0.1 million due to foreign currency losses and restructuring costs, while highlighting $400 million in new automotive business awards and strong liquidity with $163.1 million in cash and $235.2 million credit facility availability Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024 Consolidated Results (in thousands) | Metric | 2025 | 2024 | Favorable / (Unfavorable) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Product revenues | $353,854 | $356,015 | $(2,161) | | Gross margin | $86,465 | $88,753 | $(2,288) | | Operating income | $17,061 | $18,049 | $(988) | | Net (loss) income | $(128) | $14,785 | $(14,913) | - The **0.6% decrease** in product revenue was driven by unfavorable foreign currency impacts of **$5.4 million** and unfavorable pricing/other of **$1.9 million**, partially offset by a **$5.2 million** increase from automotive volume[122](index=122&type=chunk) - The company secured **$400 million** in automotive new business awards during the first quarter of 2025, which are an indicator of future revenue[116](index=116&type=chunk) - As of March 31, 2025, the company had **$163.1 million** in cash and cash equivalents and **$235.2 million** of availability under its revolving credit facility[137](index=137&type=chunk) [Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk](index=37&type=section&id=Item%203.%20Quantitative%20and%20Qualitative%20Disclosures%20About%20Market%20Risk) The company faces market risks from foreign currency and interest rate fluctuations on its variable-rate debt, which it manages with derivative contracts, noting a hypothetical 100 basis point interest rate change would impact annual interest expense by $2.6 million and providing sensitivity analysis for foreign currency derivatives - The company's primary market risks are foreign currency exchange rates and interest rates on its debt under the Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement[155](index=155&type=chunk) - A hypothetical **100 basis point** change in interest rates would impact annual interest expense by **$2.6 million**. The company has a **$100 million** interest rate swap to hedge a portion of this exposure[160](index=160&type=chunk) Foreign Currency Derivative Sensitivity (10% Rate Change) | Exchange Agreement | Potential Loss (in thousands) | Potential Gain (in thousands) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Receive MXN / Pay USD | $4,512 | $6,931 | | Receive HUF / Pay EUR | $741 | $905 | [Controls and Procedures](index=38&type=section&id=Item%204.%20Controls%20and%20Procedures) Management, including the CEO and CFO, concluded that disclosure controls and procedures were effective as of March 31, 2025, with no material changes to internal control over financial reporting during Q1 2025 - The CEO and CFO concluded that the Company's disclosure controls and procedures were **effective** as of March 31, 2025[165](index=165&type=chunk) - No changes in internal control over financial reporting occurred in Q1 2025 that **materially affected**, or are reasonably likely to materially affect, the company's internal controls[166](index=166&type=chunk) [Part II. Other Information](index=39&type=section&id=Part%20II.%20Other%20Information) [Legal Proceedings](index=39&type=section&id=Item%201.%20Legal%20Proceedings) The company reports that it is subject to litigation from time to time in the ordinary course of business, but there was no material pending litigation as of the end of the first quarter of 2025 - There was **no material pending litigation** to which the company is a party, and no material legal proceedings were resolved during the three months ended March 31, 2025[168](index=168&type=chunk) [Risk Factors](index=39&type=section&id=Item%201A.%20Risk%20Factors) The company's risk factors remain largely unchanged from its 2024 10-K, with an emphasized risk from evolving economic and trade policies, including potential tariffs and restrictions that could increase costs, reduce sales, and disrupt the supply chain - The company's risk factors have **not materially changed** from the 2024 Annual Report on Form 10-K, except for an update on trade policy risks[169](index=169&type=chunk) - The company highlights the risk that changes in trade policy, such as the additional tariffs announced in April 2025, could have a **material adverse effect** on business, including increased costs, decreased margins, and supply chain disruptions[170](index=170&type=chunk) [Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities and Use of Proceeds](index=40&type=section&id=Item%202.%20Unregistered%20Sales%20of%20Equity%20Securities%20and%20Use%20of%20Proceeds) The company did not repurchase any equity securities in Q1 2025, with approximately $120.1 million remaining available for future repurchases under the existing program - **No shares were repurchased** during the first quarter of 2025[172](index=172&type=chunk) - As of March 31, 2025, **$120,117,332** remained available for repurchase under the existing plan[172](index=172&type=chunk) [Other Information](index=40&type=section&id=Item%205.%20Other%20Information) During the first quarter of 2025, none of the company's directors or Section 16 officers adopted or terminated any Rule 10b5-1 trading plans or other non-Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangements - **No directors or Section 16 officers adopted or terminated** any Rule 10b5-1 trading plans or other trading arrangements during Q1 2025[173](index=173&type=chunk) [Exhibits](index=41&type=section&id=Item%206.%20Exhibits) This section lists the exhibits filed with the Form 10-Q, including certifications by the CEO and CFO and XBRL data files [Signatures](index=42&type=section&id=Signatures) The report is duly signed by William Presley, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Jonathan Douyard, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer, on April 24, 2025
Gentherm(THRM) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Presentation
2025-04-24 14:57
Financial Performance - First quarter revenue was $354 million, a 1% increase excluding foreign exchange impacts[29] - Adjusted EBITDA was $39.3 million with a margin of 11.1%, compared to $43.5 million and 12.2% in the first quarter of the previous year[29,40] - The company maintains a strong balance sheet with liquidity of approximately $400 million and net leverage around 0.5x[21,29] Automotive Sector - The company secured $400 million in new automotive business awards, driven by conquest awards from Volvo and a Japanese OEM[20,24] - Automotive climate and comfort solutions experienced growth exceeding the market by over 300 basis points[20] - There were 17 new program launches across 11 OEMs, including Lincoln Navigator, Audi Q5, and BYD Xia[20,24,25] Medical Sector - The medical sector sustained momentum with a 6% growth excluding foreign exchange impacts[30] - The company is leveraging core technology platforms to expand the medical addressable market, with two completed proof-of-concept projects[12,13] Guidance and Outlook - Revenue guidance for 2025 remains unchanged at $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion, while the Adjusted EBITDA margin range has been revised to 11.5% - 13%[32] - The company anticipates a 2% decline in total relevant markets, with a 7% decrease in North America, based on S&P Global Mobility's Light Vehicle Production Forecast[6,32]
Gentherm(THRM) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-04-24 13:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - First quarter revenues decreased by 0.6% year-over-year but grew approximately 1% when adjusted for foreign exchange [28] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $39.3 million, representing 11.1% of sales, down from 12.2% in the same quarter last year [28] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share decreased to $0.51 from $0.62 year-over-year [29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Automotive Climate and Comfort Solutions revenue increased by 3.8% year-over-year or 5.3% when excluding foreign exchange effects, driven by strong growth in lumbar and massage comfort solutions [28] - Medical segment revenues increased by 6% year-over-year when adjusted for foreign exchange, primarily due to growth in Europe [28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The outlook for 2025 annual volumes has declined by 2% compared to previous reports, with a notable 10% decline expected in North America, which constitutes about 40% of the company's business [9][33] - The company is closely monitoring dealer inventory levels and customer demand schedules to adapt to market changes [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding revenue while increasing margins and cash flow, with a strategic emphasis on scaling four core technology platforms: thermal management, air moving devices, pneumatic solutions, and valve systems [12][36] - The company is actively pursuing opportunities in adjacent markets, particularly in the medical sector, leveraging existing technologies without significant incremental investments [15][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged increased economic uncertainty due to tariffs but expressed confidence in the company's ability to mitigate impacts and maintain a strong balance sheet [6][10] - The company is committed to driving profitable growth and operational excellence, with plans to optimize production across regions [18][20] Other Important Information - The company received $400 million in new automotive business awards during the quarter, including significant wins with Japanese OEMs and Volvo [24][25] - The company was recognized as General Motors Supplier of the Year for the third time, highlighting strong relationships and innovative technology [27] Q&A Session Summary Question: How much pass-through revenue is incorporated in the guidance? - Management indicated that the impact of tariffs is relatively limited, with only a small portion of the overall business affected, primarily in Mexico and North America [42] Question: Why is the approach to adjacent markets different this time? - Management clarified that the focus is on scaling existing technologies into adjacent markets rather than developing new products, emphasizing the use of current capital equipment [45] Question: What are the booking dynamics in Q1? - Management stated that the first quarter's new program awards were in line with expectations, despite appearing lower than previous quarters [50] Question: How is the company maintaining its sales guidance despite weaker industry forecasts? - Management explained that while North American volumes are under pressure, favorable foreign exchange impacts and tariff pass-throughs are helping to maintain guidance [51]
Gentherm (THRM) Q1 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates
ZACKS· 2025-04-24 12:10
Company Performance - Gentherm reported quarterly earnings of $0.51 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.48 per share, but down from $0.62 per share a year ago, indicating a 17.74% year-over-year decline [1] - The company posted revenues of $353.85 million for the quarter, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.93%, but down from $356.02 million year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Gentherm has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times, but has only topped revenue estimates once [2] Stock Performance - Gentherm shares have declined approximately 37.8% since the beginning of the year, compared to a decline of 8.6% for the S&P 500 [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.62 on revenues of $376.1 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $2.50 on revenues of $1.46 billion [7] Industry Outlook - The Automotive - Original Equipment industry, to which Gentherm belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 36% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a challenging environment [8] - The performance of Gentherm's stock may be influenced by the overall outlook for the industry, as research indicates that the top 50% of Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by more than 2 to 1 [8]
Gentherm Reports 2025 First Quarter Results
Globenewswire· 2025-04-24 10:00
Delivered Revenue of $354 million, up +1% ex-FX, led by Strong Lumbar and Massage Comfort Solutions Growth Secured $400 million of Automotive New Business Awards including Key Conquest Wins Commenced Shipment of Customer Approved Production Components from New Morocco Facility 2025 Full Year Revenue Guidance Remains Unchanged, Adjusted EBITDA Margin Range Expanded NOVI, Mich., April 24, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Gentherm (NASDAQ:THRM), a global market leader of innovative thermal management and pneumatic com ...
Gentherm Announces Date for 2025 First Quarter News Release and Conference Call
Globenewswire· 2025-04-15 13:56
Core Viewpoint - Gentherm, a leader in thermal management and comfort technologies, is set to report its Q1 2025 financial results on April 24, 2025, followed by a conference call at 8 am ET to discuss these results [1]. Financial Results Announcement - The financial results for the first quarter of 2025 will be reported on April 24, 2025 [1]. - A conference call to discuss the results will take place at 8 am ET on the same day [1]. Conference Call Details - Toll-free dial-in number for the conference call is 1-877-407-4018, and the international dial-in number is 1-201-689-8471 [2]. - The conference ID number for the call is 13753379 [2]. - A live webcast and a one-year archived replay of the call will be available on Gentherm's Investor Relations website [2]. Telephonic Replay Information - A telephonic replay will be available approximately two hours after the call by dialing 1-844-512-2921 for domestic callers and 1-412-317-6671 for international callers [3]. - The passcode for both the live call and the replay is 13753379 [3]. - The replay will be accessible until 11:59 p.m. ET on May 8, 2025 [3]. Company Overview - Gentherm is a global market leader in thermal management and pneumatic comfort technologies, with a diverse range of automotive and medical products [4]. - Automotive products include Climate Control Seats, heated interior systems, battery performance solutions, and various electronic devices [4]. - The company employs over 14,000 individuals across multiple countries, including the United States, Germany, China, and others [4].
Gentherm Recognized as 2024 Supplier of the Year by General Motors
Newsfilter· 2025-04-08 20:30
NOVI, Mich., April 08, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Today, General Motors presented Gentherm with a 2024 Supplier of the Year Award at GM's 33rd annual Supplier of the Year event in Phoenix, Arizona. This is the third time Gentherm has received the award. "We are incredibly honored to be recognized as a General Motors Supplier of the Year," said Jaymi Wilson, Senior Vice President and General Manager, North America Automotive and Global Sales and Marketing at Gentherm. "This award reflects the long-standing rel ...
Gentherm Releases 2024 Sustainability Report
Newsfilter· 2025-03-25 12:00
NOVI, Mich., March 25, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Gentherm (NASDAQ:THRM), a global market leader of innovative thermal management and pneumatic comfort technologies, today published its 2024 Sustainability Report. The report highlights Gentherm's key areas of focus: People, Planet and Products, and provides updates on previously established environmental performance metrics. "Gentherm's success is built on innovation, dedication and the pursuit of excellence. Over the past year, we made significant progress i ...
Gentherm Releases 2024 Sustainability Report
GlobeNewswire News Room· 2025-03-25 12:00
NOVI, Mich., March 25, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Gentherm (NASDAQ:THRM), a global market leader of innovative thermal management and pneumatic comfort technologies, today published its 2024 Sustainability Report. The report highlights Gentherm’s key areas of focus: People, Planet and Products, and provides updates on previously established environmental performance metrics. “Gentherm’s success is built on innovation, dedication and the pursuit of excellence. Over the past year, we made significant progress i ...