Ahead of today’s biggest market news item — the Fed rate cut, expected at 1pm ET today — we see an economic segment directly affected by interest rates, Housing. As we’ll see, the homebuilding side of the housing market continues to cool down — clearly a result of still-high interest rates, which translate to high mortgage rates.August Housing Starts & Building Permits LowerWe had expected Housing Starts to cool month over month, from a +5% pop in July to something a bit lower. But today’s headline 1.307 mi ...

Core Insights - The U.S. housing market is experiencing a balance between affordability challenges and pent-up demand, with optimism emerging due to easing mortgage rates and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][8] Builder Sentiment - Builder confidence in newly built single-family homes remained at 32 in September, unchanged from August, with future sales expectations rising to 45, the highest since March [2][8] - 39% of builders reported price reductions in September, the highest since the post-COVID period began, with an average reduction of 5% [3][8] Economic Factors - Inflation remains a concern, with the consumer price index rising 2.9% year-over-year in August, indicating ongoing price pressures [4] - The labor market showed weakness, adding only 22,000 jobs in August, with the unemployment rate increasing to 4.3% [5] - Mortgage rates have decreased to 6.35%, the lowest since mid-October 2024, potentially reopening opportunities for sidelined buyers [6][8] Industry Performance - The Zacks Building Products – Home Builders industry gained 29.5% over the past three months, outperforming the broader Zacks Construction sector and the S&P 500, both of which increased by 12.1% [10] - D.R. Horton (DHI) has seen a 41.6% increase in stock price over the past three months, with an upward revision of fiscal 2025 earnings estimates [14] - Toll Brothers (TOL) gained 34% in the same period, benefiting from potential confidence revival among high-income households [15] - Home Depot (HD), Lowe's (LOW), and Masco (MAS) have also posted significant gains, with respective increases of 21.4%, 28.3%, and 20.4% [16][17]

Economic Overview - The housing market is cooling down due to high interest rates, which lead to elevated mortgage rates [1] - Housing Starts for August were reported at 1.307 million seasonally adjusted annualized units, marking a decrease from 1.429 million in July, the lowest since May [2] - Single-family homebuilding decreased by 7% month over month and 12% year over year, while multi-family units fell by 11% month over month but increased by 15% year over year [3] Mortgage Rates and Homebuilder Sentiment - As of mid-last month, 30-year fixed mortgage rates were around 6.5%, currently down to approximately 6.13%, which may lead to a rebound in housing starts [4] - Building Permits also declined to 1.312 million, indicating a softening in future housing starts [5] - Homebuilder sentiment dropped by 2 points, with affordability being a significant concern; Toll Brothers remains the only major homebuilder with a strong outlook [6] Federal Reserve Expectations - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in 2025, with a potential 25 basis-point cut anticipated [7][8] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference will be crucial for insights on future rate cuts and the Fed's strategy moving forward [9] - There may be discussions regarding the Fed's asset runoff, particularly concerning mortgage-based securities, to support the housing market [10]

Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL) is one of the Best Housing Stocks to Buy According to Hedge Funds. On September 11, the company announced that its newest community, Coldwater Ridge of Northville, is now open in Northville, Michigan. It features luxury condos possessing modern home designs providing first- and second-floor primary bedrooms. Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL) stated that homes are being priced from the low $500,000s. Toll Brothers (TOL) Announces That Coldwater Ridge of Northville Is Now Open in ...

Core Insights - Toll Brothers, Inc. has opened a new luxury home community named Toll Brothers at August Park in Spring Hill, Tennessee, which is served by the highly sought-after Williamson County Schools [1][4] Group 1: Community Features - The community features 31 new single-family homes with spacious designs and personalization options, with floor plans ranging from 2,882 to over 4,121 square feet, including 4 to 6 bedrooms and 3.5 to 5.5 baths [3] - Pricing for the homes starts in the upper $800,000s, indicating a premium market positioning [3] Group 2: Location and Accessibility - The community is strategically located near the new June Lake, Interstate 65 Interchange, and Interstate 840, providing easy access to shopping, dining, and entertainment in nearby Franklin and Nashville [4] - Residents will have access to amenities such as a community pool and pool house, enhancing the living experience [4] Group 3: Customer Experience - Toll Brothers offers a one-stop shopping experience at the Toll Brothers Design Studio, allowing customers to personalize their homes with a wide array of selections and professional assistance [6] Group 4: Company Background - Toll Brothers, Inc. is a Fortune 500 Company and the leading builder of luxury homes in the United States, operating in over 60 markets across 24 states [8] - The company has received multiple accolades, including being named one of Fortune magazine's World's Most Admired Companies for over 10 years and having its CEO recognized as one of the Top 25 CEOs by Barron's magazine [9]

Core Insights - Toll Brothers, Inc. operates in a challenging housing market characterized by affordability constraints, changing buyer preferences, and fluctuating mortgage rates, focusing on price discipline and operational efficiency to maintain profitability [1] - The company faces softened demand, raising concerns about achieving its fiscal 2025 earnings target of $13.75 per share, a decrease from $13.82 reported in fiscal 2024 [1][10] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 of fiscal 2025, home deliveries increased by 5% year-over-year, and revenues grew by 6%, driven by higher average selling prices, with delivered homes averaging $974,000 [2] - However, net signed contracts decreased by 4% year-over-year in units, and backlog units fell by 19%, with potential revenues declining by 10% [2] - Despite lower volumes, the average backlog price rose to $1.161 million from $1.044 million a year earlier, indicating resilience among affluent buyers [2] Group 2: Profitability Metrics - Gross margin contracted by 130 basis points year-over-year to 27.5%, attributed to higher incentives and product mix, while SG&A expenses improved by 20 basis points to 8.8% of revenues due to tighter cost control [3] - The company benefits from a high-value backlog and efficiency gains, providing flexibility to defend profitability despite declining volumes [4] Group 3: Industry Context - The broader homebuilding industry is experiencing slower sales volumes, with competitors like Lennar Corporation and D.R. Horton, Inc. also facing growth challenges due to ongoing affordability issues [5] - Lennar's gross margins fell to 18% from 22.5% year-over-year, while D.R. Horton reported that 81% of buyers utilized incentive programs, impacting profitability [6][7] Group 4: Stock Performance and Valuation - Toll Brothers' shares have increased by 32.2% over the past three months, outperforming the Zacks Building Products - Home Builders industry and the S&P 500 [8] - The stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 10.24, lower than the industry average of 12.91 [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Toll Brothers' 2025 earnings per share has decreased to $13.82 from $13.95 over the past 30 days, indicating a 7.9% decline from the previous year's profit level [15]

Market Overview - The S&P 500 Index closed down -0.05%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index down -0.59%, while the Nasdaq 100 Index closed up +0.42% [1] - Stock indexes settled mixed as higher bond yields led to long liquidation in equities, with the 10-year T-note yield rising +5 basis points to 4.06% [2] - The University of Michigan US September consumer sentiment index fell -2.8 to a 4-month low of 55.4, which weighed on stock prices [5] Economic Indicators - The US consumer sentiment report for September was weaker than expected, contributing to a Fed-friendly outlook for interest rate cuts [3][9] - Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, with an overall expectation of -70 basis points by year-end [6][9] Company Movements - Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) surged over +16% following reports of a potential acquisition bid from Paramount Skydance [13] - Tesla (TSLA) rose more than +7% after receiving approval for testing autonomous vehicles in Nevada [13] - Micron Technology (MU) increased over +4% on speculation of accelerated growth due to strong demand for AI chips [14] - Oracle (ORCL) fell more than -5% amid reports of insider backing for a competing acquisition bid [17] Sector Performance - Covid vaccine makers, including Moderna (MRNA) and BioNTech SE (BNTX), retreated over -7% following reports linking child deaths to Covid shots [16] - Home builders and suppliers faced declines due to rising T-note yields, with Builders FirstSource (BLDR) and Toll Brothers (TOL) down more than -2% [16]

Market Overview - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have reached new all-time highs, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [2][4] - The Dow Jones Industrials Index has decreased by -0.31% [1] - Higher bond yields are limiting stock market gains, with the 10-year T-note yield rising to 4.06% [3][8] Economic Indicators - The University of Michigan's September consumer sentiment index fell to a 4-month low of 55.4, below expectations of 58.0 [5] - Inflation expectations for the next 5-10 years increased to +3.9% from +3.5% in August, contrary to expectations of a decline [5][8] - Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting [6][9] Company Movements - Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) surged over +11% following reports of a potential acquisition bid from Paramount Skydance [13] - Tesla (TSLA) rose more than +5% after receiving approval for testing autonomous vehicles in Nevada [13] - Micron Technology (MU) increased by over +3% due to strong demand for AI chips, contributing to a +13% rally this week [14] - Super Micro Computer (SMCI) gained more than +2% after announcing high-volume deliveries of Nvidia systems [14] - Microsoft (MSFT) rose over +1% after reaching a preliminary agreement with OpenAI regarding their partnership [15] Declines in Stock Prices - Lululemon Athletica (LULU) fell more than -3% after a price target cut by Bank of America [16] - Oracle (ORCL) decreased over -3% amid reports of insider backing for a competing acquisition bid [17] - MGM Resorts International (MGM) declined more than -1% due to insider selling activity [18]

Core Insights - Toll Brothers, Inc. has launched a new luxury condo community named Coldwater Ridge of Northville in Michigan, featuring modern home designs and a model home grand opening event scheduled for September 13, 2025 [1][4]. Company Overview - Toll Brothers, Inc. is recognized as the nation's leading builder of luxury homes, founded in 1967 and publicly traded since 1986 [6]. - The company operates in over 60 markets across 24 states and the District of Columbia, offering a variety of housing options for different buyer segments [7]. Community Features - Coldwater Ridge of Northville offers luxury two-story condos with four distinct floor plans ranging from 1,904 to 2,206 square feet, featuring 3 bedrooms and 2.5 to 3.5 bathrooms [2]. - Homes are priced starting from the low $500,000s, with options for first- or second-floor primary bedroom suites and additional versatile living spaces [2]. Location and Amenities - The community is strategically located near downtown Northville and Plymouth, providing residents with access to shops, dining, entertainment, parks, and golf courses [4]. - Amenities include scenic walking trails and an exclusive community pickleball court, along with proximity to top-rated Northville Public Schools [4]. Construction and Design - Coldwater Ridge offers move-in ready and quick move-in homes that are currently under construction, featuring Designer Appointed Features curated by professional Design Consultants [5].

Core Insights - Toll Brothers, Inc. announces the final opportunity to purchase new homes at Borello Ranch Estates, an exclusive gated community in Morgan Hill, California [1][2] - The community features two professionally decorated model homes available for sale, with a special event scheduled for September 13 to celebrate their release [1][2] Company Overview - Toll Brothers is the nation's leading builder of luxury homes, founded in 1967 and publicly traded since 1986 [11] - The company operates in over 60 markets across 24 states and the District of Columbia, offering a variety of home types for different buyer segments [11] Product Offering - Borello Ranch Estates features single- and two-story estate-sized homes with 4 to 5 bedrooms and 4.5 to 5.5 bathrooms, on home sites exceeding 24,000 square feet [5] - Homes range from 3,500 to over 6,000 square feet, with pricing starting at approximately $2.9 million [5] Community Amenities - The community includes a resort-style recreation center with various amenities such as a junior Olympic-sized pool, spa, barbecue areas, and sports courts [8] - It is located in a serene environment surrounded by rolling hills, while being conveniently close to major employers and local shopping [9] Customer Experience - Toll Brothers offers a state-of-the-art Design Studio for home shoppers to personalize their homes with professional design consultants [7] - Quick move-in homes with designer features are also available for sale with delivery dates later this fall [4]