Core Viewpoint - Trex (TREX) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings despite an increase in revenues for the quarter ending June 2025, with the actual results being a significant factor influencing its near-term stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The consensus estimate for Trex's quarterly earnings is $0.71 per share, reflecting an 11.3% decrease year-over-year. Revenues are projected to be $377.91 million, which is a 0.4% increase from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.95% higher, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts regarding the company's earnings outlook [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that Trex's Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -2.07%, suggesting a bearish sentiment among analysts [12]. Historical Performance - Trex has a history of beating consensus EPS estimates, having done so in the last four quarters. In the most recent quarter, it reported earnings of $0.60 per share against an expectation of $0.58, achieving a surprise of +3.45% [13][14]. Investment Considerations - While Trex does not appear to be a strong candidate for an earnings beat, investors are advised to consider other factors that may influence stock performance ahead of the earnings release [17].

Industry Overview - The Zacks Building Products – Wood industry is currently facing challenges such as rising construction costs, potential housing project delays, and affordability concerns for consumers [1] - Spending on home repair and remodeling has decreased from pandemic highs due to elevated mortgage rates impacting consumer budgets [1][2] - There is a strong need for investments in critical replacements and modernization of aging housing stock, alongside increased funding for infrastructure and carbon/ESG-related projects [2][6] Trends Impacting the Industry - The U.S. housing market is constrained by high interest rates and low consumer confidence, affecting demand for lumber and remodeling [4] - The reimplementation of tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber could lead to supply shortages and increased material costs, as Canada supplies about 30% of U.S. softwood lumber [4] - Volatility in lumber prices remains a significant concern, impacting inventory costs and profit margins [5] Company Strategies - Companies are focusing on acquisitions, product innovation, and efficient cost-reduction strategies to navigate current challenges [7][8] - Operational excellence is being emphasized, including improvements in merchandising, harvest, and transportation efficiencies [8] Industry Performance - The Zacks Building Products – Wood industry has outperformed the broader Zacks Construction sector and the S&P 500 over the past year, gaining 21.6% compared to the sector's 8.8% and the S&P 500's 12.3% [13] - The industry currently has a Zacks Industry Rank of 155, placing it in the bottom 37% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating dull near-term prospects [9][10] Earnings Outlook - Analysts have shown decreasing confidence in the industry's earnings growth potential, with aggregate earnings estimates for 2025 declining from $2.22 to $2.11 per share [11] - Despite the bleak near-term outlook, some companies are highlighted for their potential to capitalize on fundamental strengths [12] Notable Companies - **Worthington Enterprises, Inc. (WOR)**: Gained 48.4% over the past year, with an upward estimate revision for fiscal 2026 earnings to $3.65 from $3.14 per share [22] - **PotlatchDeltic Corporation (PCH)**: Gained 5% over the past year, with an upward estimate revision for 2025 earnings to 88 cents from 83 cents per share [26] - **Trex Company, Inc. (TREX)**: Experienced a loss of 20.9% over the past year, but has seen an upward estimate revision for 2025 earnings to $2.21 from $2.16 per share [30]

Company Overview - Trex's market capitalization is valued at $5.3 billion as of March 31, 2023, supported by brand strength, distribution network, low-cost leadership, and product breadth[15, 16, 17] - The company has recycled over 5 billion pounds of plastic film since its inception, utilizing 95% reclaimed and recycled materials in its durable decking[18, 19] - Trex has reduced its greenhouse gas emissions intensity by 33% between 2020 and 2021[19] Market Position and Growth - 82% of people say their outdoor space is more important to them than ever[32] - Trex residential growth from 2015 to 2022 was 140%, outpacing the outdoor living category's growth of 102% and the repair & remodeling sector's growth of 71%[38] - Trex holds a 12% market share of the $8 billion U S decking & railing category[39] Product Innovation and Value - Trex is launching a new luxury line with realistic wood grain and colors inspired by nature, with 2 colors available in Q1 2023 in select markets, backed by a new 50-year warranty[75] - Trex web traffic commands more than 60% of the category, generating high-quality Trex leads[99] Financial Performance and Capital Allocation - Trex has capital expenditures of $656 million since 2016[128] - The company has $745 million in share repurchases over the past 10 years, including $395 million in 2022 repurchases[129] - The company anticipates capital expenditures of $130-140 million, SG&A at 15-16% of sales, depreciation & amortization of $45-47 million, a tax rate of 25-26%, and an EBITDA margin of 26-27%[141]

SEEING MORE INVESTOR PRESENTATION | AS O F Q2 2023 NYSE:TREX AT TREX, EVEN OUR PRESENTATION DECKS SAVE TREES. Scan for our paperless investor presentation. SAFE HARBOR / NON-GAAP MEASURES This presentation contains "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause the Company's actual operating results to differ materially from those cont ...

Company Overview - Trex is the 1 brand in trust, consumer awareness, search, traffic, social media, sales, and market share[13] - Trex decking is made of 95% reclaimed and recycled materials, and the company has recycled over 5 billion pounds of plastic film since inception[14] - The company has a market cap supported by brand, distribution, low-cost leadership, and product breadth[15] Market Opportunity and Growth - Trex Residential experienced 140% growth from 2015 to 2022, outpacing the outdoor living category's 102% growth and the repair & remodeling category's 71% growth[32] - Trex has a 12% market share of the $8 billion U S decking & railing category[33] - Homeowners are increasingly allocating budgets to outdoor living spaces, with 25% of overall budgets going to upgrades[37] - The company estimates $400 million in expenditures for the Arkansas site through 2026[42] Sustainability and Impact - 95% of Trex decking is upcycled from diverted wastes[116] - The company reclaims approximately 13,000 pounds of scrap Trex boards and cut-off ends through a pilot circulatory program[116] - Trex recycles ~99% of water annually with closed-loop cooling systems at its Virginia and Nevada manufacturing facilities[117] Financial Performance and Guidance - Trex Residential adjusted sales for TTM 2024 were $1.23 billion[130] - Trex Residential adjusted EBITDA for TTM 2024 was $388 million, representing 32% of net sales[132] - The company projects full-year revenue growth of 11-13%[135]

Company Overview - Trex has recycled over 5 billion pounds of plastic film since its inception, positioning itself as one of the largest polyethylene film recyclers in North America[14] - The company's market capitalization is supported by its brand, distribution network, low-cost leadership, and product breadth, valued at $6.5 billion[15] - Trex holds a 13% market share in the $8 billion U S decking and railing category[36] Market Trends and Opportunities - There's a growing demand for multi-functional outdoor living spaces, with a 50% increase since 2020[39] - Sustainability is gaining industry influence, with 77% of designers prioritizing products made with responsibly sourced materials[41] - The railing market presents a $3.3 billion opportunity, where Trex aims to double its market share over the next five years[44,48] Financial Performance and Capital Allocation - Trex has allocated $699 million in capital expenditures since 2016, including $200 million for capacity expansion completed in FY2021[44] - The company's capital allocation strategy prioritizes high-return CapEx spending, high-impact acquisitions, and share buybacks[158] - Trex's adjusted sales for 2024 reached $1.151 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA of $360 million, representing a 31% margin[174] Sustainability and Environmental Impact - Trex upcycles 95% of materials in its decking from diverted wastes[150] - The company reclaims 13000 pounds of scrap Trex boards and cut-off ends through a pilot circularity program[150] - Trex recycles approximately 99% of process water annually with closed-loop cooling systems at its Virginia and Nevada manufacturing facilities[151]

SEEING MORE INVESTOR PRESENTATION | AS O F Q3 2023 NYSE:TREX AT TREX, EVEN OUR PRESENTATION DECKS SAVE TREES. Scan for our paperless investor presentation. SAFE HARBOR / NON-GAAP MEASURES This presentation contains "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause the Company's actual operating results to differ materially from those cont ...

Company Performance - Trex reported quarterly earnings of $0.60 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.58 per share, but down from $0.82 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 3.45% [1] - The company posted revenues of $339.99 million for the quarter ended March 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.28%, but down from $373.64 million year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Trex has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times and topped consensus revenue estimates three times [2] Stock Performance - Trex shares have declined approximately 18.1% since the beginning of the year, compared to a decline of 4.3% for the S&P 500 [3] - The current Zacks Rank for Trex is 3 (Hold), indicating that shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future [6] Future Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.78 on revenues of $379.47 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $2.16 on revenues of $1.22 billion [7] - The outlook for the Building Products - Wood industry, to which Trex belongs, is currently in the bottom 16% of over 250 Zacks industries, which may impact Trex's stock performance [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, net sales were $340 million, a decrease of 9% compared to $374 million in Q1 2024, primarily due to a $40 million benefit from channel inventory build in the previous year that did not repeat [23][25] - Gross profit was $138 million with a gross margin of 40.5%, down from $170 million and 45.4% year-over-year, attributed to railing conversion costs and lower production levels [24][25] - Net income decreased by 32% to $60 million or $0.56 per diluted share, compared to $89 million or $0.82 per diluted share in the prior year [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - New products launched in the last 36 months accounted for approximately 22% of trailing twelve-month sales, more than double the level from the previous year [9][18] - The company is seeing strong demand for premium products across all channels, with a notable increase in dealer conversions to the Trex brand [9][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The repair and remodel market is projected to rebound, with spending expected to increase from a low of $1 per square foot in 2024 back to the long-term average of $1.26 by 2027 [16][17] - The company anticipates outperforming the repair and remodel market in 2025, driven by new product introductions and market share gains [17][26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on enhancing its product offerings through innovation, with a commitment to serving consumers across all price points [18][19] - Trex is expanding its distribution partnerships and enhancing brand alignment with contractors to drive sales [14][20] - The new manufacturing campus in Arkansas is expected to improve operational efficiency and reduce costs [15][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's market position despite macroeconomic challenges and competitive pressures [28][29] - The company is maintaining its full-year guidance for 2025, expecting net sales growth between 5% to 7% and adjusted EBITDA margin to exceed 31% [26] Other Important Information - The company is implementing a new inventory strategy to reduce quarterly volatility and ensure adequate supply to meet consumer demand [11] - Tariff impacts are projected to affect less than 5% of cost of sales, with mitigation strategies in place [12][88] Q&A Session Summary Question: What drove the changes to the Enhance product line? - Management noted customer feedback led to manufacturing changes that improved the strength and aesthetics of the product [31][32] Question: What are the expectations for gross margins in Q2? - Management indicated that Q2 margins would be similar to Q1, primarily due to ongoing costs from product enhancements [33][34] Question: What is the sell-through rate for Q1? - The company reported strong demand for premium products and a turnaround in entry-level products, aligning with full-year guidance [40][41] Question: How will inventory practices affect seasonality? - Management expects a return to more normal seasonal patterns, with a strong first quarter followed by a slight decline in the third and fourth quarters [45][46] Question: What are the impacts of tariffs on costs? - The company has limited exposure to China and is exploring alternative sourcing options to mitigate tariff impacts [88][89] Question: How is the entry-level market performing? - There has been sequential improvement in entry-level products, with expectations for continued stabilization [114][115]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, net sales were $340 million, a decrease of 9% compared to $374 million in Q1 2024, primarily due to a lack of channel inventory build that occurred in the previous year [21][25] - Gross profit was $138 million with a gross margin of 40.5%, down from $170 million and 45.4% year-over-year, attributed to railing conversion costs and lower production levels [22][23] - Net income decreased by 32% to $60 million or $0.56 per diluted share, compared to $89 million or $0.82 per diluted share in the prior year [23][25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - New products launched in the last 36 months accounted for approximately 22% of trailing twelve-month sales, more than double the level from the previous year [7][17] - The company is seeing strong demand for premium products across all channels, with a notable increase in dealer conversions to the Trex brand [6][19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The repair and remodel market is projected to rebound, with spending expected to return to long-term averages by 2027, driven by the aging of existing decks [14][15] - The company anticipates outperforming the repair and remodel market in 2025, supported by new product introductions and market share gains [15][25] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on product innovation and expanding its portfolio, with a strategy to offer a comprehensive range of decking and railing products [7][17] - A new manufacturing campus in Arkansas is expected to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs, with production of recycled plastic pellets already underway [14][20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's market position despite macroeconomic pressures, citing strong demand for premium products and positive feedback on new offerings [26][27] - The company is maintaining its full-year guidance for 2025, expecting net sales growth between 5% to 7% and adjusted EBITDA margins exceeding 31% [25][26] Other Important Information - The company is implementing a new inventory strategy to reduce quarterly volatility and ensure adequate supply to meet consumer demand [10] - Tariff impacts are projected to affect less than 5% of cost of sales, with mitigation strategies in place to manage costs [11][84] Q&A Session Summary Question: Changes to the Enhance product line - Management explained that refinements were made based on customer feedback to improve strength and aesthetics, expecting stronger sales post-change [29][30] Question: Sell-through rates and guidance - Management confirmed strong demand for premium products and a turnaround in entry-level products, maintaining guidance for mid to high single-digit growth [38][39] Question: Seasonal trends and inventory practices - Management indicated a return to more normal seasonal patterns, with expectations for a less pronounced drop-off in Q3 compared to historical trends [42][44] Question: SG&A expenses and guidance - SG&A expenses are expected to be front-loaded due to marketing and innovation investments, with a decrease anticipated in subsequent quarters [49][50] Question: Tariff impacts and mitigation - Management noted limited exposure to China and ongoing efforts to mitigate tariff impacts through supplier negotiations and inventory strategies [84][86] Question: Capital allocation priorities - The company remains focused on organic growth, potential acquisitions, and share buybacks, with expectations for increased free cash flow in the coming years [57][115]