Core Insights - TXO Partners, L.P. offers a unique approach to gaining exposure in the energy sector with potentially lower volatility due to its focus on developed drilling locations [1] Company Overview - TXO Partners, L.P. is positioned in the energy sector, emphasizing stability by investing in already developed drilling sites, which mitigates the risks associated with initial drilling phases [1] Analyst Background - The analyst has over a decade of experience in financial markets, primarily in hedge funds, and has recently expanded their focus to include the energy and minerals sectors, recognizing their growth potential [1]

Company Performance - TXO Partners LP (TXO) closed at $10.15, reflecting a decrease of -2.78% from the previous day's closing price, which is less than the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.34% [1] - Over the past month, TXO's shares have declined by 13.36%, underperforming the Oils-Energy sector's loss of 1.8% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.19% [1] Earnings Estimates - TXO is projected to report earnings of $0.09 per share, indicating a year-over-year decline of 65.38%, with anticipated revenue of $111.72 million, representing a 25.06% increase from the same quarter last year [2] - For the full year, analysts expect earnings of $0.07 per share and revenue of $386.8 million, marking changes of -89.23% and 0% respectively from the previous year [3] Analyst Sentiment - Recent changes to analyst estimates for TXO should be noted, as they reflect evolving short-term business trends, with positive revisions indicating analyst optimism regarding the business and profitability [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which assesses these estimate changes, currently gives TXO a rank of 3 (Hold), indicating a neutral outlook [6] Valuation Metrics - TXO is trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 25.16, which is a premium compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 11.43 [7] - The Energy and Pipeline - Master Limited Partnerships industry, part of the Oils-Energy sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 23, placing it in the top 10% of over 250 industries [7]

Investors often turn to recommendations made by Wall Street analysts before making a Buy, Sell, or Hold decision about a stock. While media reports about rating changes by these brokerage-firm employed (or sell-side) analysts often affect a stock's price, do they really matter?Before we discuss the reliability of brokerage recommendations and how to use them to your advantage, let's see what these Wall Street heavyweights think about TXO Partners LP (TXO) .TXO Partners LP currently has an average brokerage ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors in TXO Partners, L.P. should closely monitor the stock due to significant movements in the options market, particularly the high implied volatility of the Jan 16, 2026 $7.5 Call option [1] Group 1: Implied Volatility - Implied volatility indicates the market's expectation of future price movement, with high levels suggesting anticipation of a significant price change or an upcoming event that could trigger a rally or sell-off [2] - The current high implied volatility for TXO Partners may signal a developing trading opportunity, as options traders often seek to sell premium on such options to capture decay [4] Group 2: Analyst Insights - TXO Partners holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) within the Energy and Pipeline - Master Limited Partnerships industry, which is positioned in the top 44% of the Zacks Industry Rank [3] - Over the past 60 days, one analyst has raised the earnings estimate for the current quarter from 8 cents per share to 9 cents, with no downward revisions from other analysts [3]

Operations and Market Focus - The company operates primarily in the Permian Basin, San Juan Basin, and Williston Basin, focusing on the acquisition and development of oil and natural gas reserves[102]. - The oil and natural gas industry remains cyclical, with commodity prices subject to significant fluctuations due to various external factors[105]. - The company faces risks related to commodity price volatility, regulatory changes, and geopolitical issues that could impact operations and financial performance[103]. Market Conditions and Price Volatility - From January 1, 2024, to September 30, 2025, NYMEX crude oil prices peaked at $86.91 per Bbl and fell to $57.52 per Bbl by October 20, 2025, while natural gas prices reached a high of $4.49 per MMBtu before declining to $3.40 per MMBtu[105]. - The company anticipates continued volatility in crude oil and natural gas markets, which will significantly impact revenue and profitability[106]. Financial Performance - Total revenues increased by $32.1 million, or 47%, from $68.7 million in Q3 2024 to $100.9 million in Q3 2025, driven by a production increase of 521 MBoe and a 34% rise in average selling price of natural gas[124]. - Net income for Q3 2025 was $4.352 million, a significant increase from $203,000 in Q3 2024[120]. - Adjusted EBITDAX rose to $32.75 million in Q3 2025, compared to $20.16 million in Q3 2024, reflecting improved operational performance[120]. - Revenues increased by $81.6 million, or 42%, from $193.5 million in 2024 to $275.1 million in 2025, driven by a 1,210 MBoe increase in production and a 33% rise in average selling price of natural gas[140]. Operating Costs and Expenses - Inflationary pressures have increased operating costs, particularly for steel, chemicals, transportation, and wages, with no short-term reversal expected[107]. - Production expenses increased by $8.4 million, or 21%, from $39.4 million in Q3 2024 to $47.9 million in Q3 2025, primarily due to acquisitions in the Williston Basin[125]. - Total expenses for Q3 2025 were $97.116 million, compared to $73.697 million in Q3 2024, reflecting increased operational costs[120]. - General and administrative expenses increased by $1.6 million, or 48%, from $3.3 million in Q3 2024 to $4.8 million in Q3 2025, mainly due to higher personnel costs[132]. Cash Flow and Capital Expenditures - Cash available for distribution was $7.543 million in Q3 2025, down from $16.567 million in Q3 2024[120]. - Capital expenditures, including acquisitions, totaled $305.4 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $273.0 million in 2024[157]. - Net cash provided by operating activities increased by $16.9 million, reaching $85.7 million in 2025 compared to $68.8 million in 2024, attributed to improved operating results[163]. Debt and Financing - Outstanding borrowings under the Credit Facility increased from $150.0 million at December 31, 2024, to $264.0 million at September 30, 2025[153]. - The weighted average interest rate on Credit Facility borrowings was 8.0% for the nine months ended September 30, 2025[169]. - The company entered into Amendment No. 5 to its Credit Facility on July 31, 2025, increasing the borrowing base from $275 million to $410 million and extending the maturity date to August 30, 2029[166]. Production and Sales Volumes - Total sales volumes for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, reached 7,322 MBoe, compared to 6,112 MBoe in 2024, representing a daily average increase from 22 MBoe/d to 27 MBoe/d[140]. - Average sales price for oil and condensate decreased by 15% from $77.17 per Bbl in 2024 to $67.30 per Bbl in 2025, while natural gas prices increased from $1.75 per Mcf to $2.94 per Mcf[140]. Future Outlook and Strategic Plans - The company plans to dynamically allocate funds to maximize economic returns, support acquisition opportunities, and manage debt repayment[106]. - The company is actively working with suppliers to mitigate inflationary pressures and ensure the availability of critical supplies[108].

Core Points - TXO Partners, L.P. announced a distribution of $0.35 per common unit for the quarter ended September 30, 2025 [1] - The distribution will be paid on November 21, 2025, to eligible unitholders of record as of the close of trading on November 14, 2025 [1] - TXO Partners positions itself as a unique opportunity in the energy sector with a durable distribution strategy [1]

Disclaimer and Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains "forward-looking" statements, as defined under Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, that are based on our management's beliefs and assumptions and on information currently available to management. Forward-looking statements include all statements other than statements of historical facts contained in this presentation, including statements regarding our d ...

Core Insights - TXO Partners LP (TXO) is expected to report flat earnings of $0.01 per share for the quarter ended September 2025, with revenues projected at $95.82 million, reflecting a 39.4% increase year-over-year [3][12] - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 30.44% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4] - The company currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, suggesting a neutral outlook, which complicates predictions of an earnings beat [12][17] Earnings Expectations - The market anticipates that TXO's stock price may rise if actual earnings exceed expectations, while a miss could lead to a decline [2] - The Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) for TXO is 0%, indicating no recent changes in analyst estimates that differ from the consensus [12] Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, TXO was expected to post a loss of $0.02 per share but achieved break-even earnings, resulting in a surprise of +100.00% [13] - Over the past four quarters, TXO has only surpassed consensus EPS estimates once [14] Industry Context - Another company in the same sector, XPLR Infrastructure (XIFR), is expected to report a loss of $0.07 per share, with revenues projected at $331.56 million, up 3.9% year-over-year [18] - XPLR's consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 7.3% in the last 30 days, and it currently has a Zacks Rank of 4, indicating a sell recommendation [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - TXO Partners LP is experiencing significant stock price movements and is under scrutiny ahead of its upcoming earnings report, with expectations of stagnant earnings but notable revenue growth compared to the previous year [1][2]. Company Performance - TXO Partners LP closed at $13.10, reflecting a +2.99% increase from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's loss of 0.53% [1]. - Prior to the latest trading session, TXO shares had declined by 9.27%, which is worse than the Oils-Energy sector's loss of 1.42% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.13% [1]. Earnings Expectations - Analysts anticipate TXO Partners LP will report earnings of $0.01 per share, indicating no growth from the same period last year [2]. - Revenue is expected to reach $95.82 million, representing a 39.42% increase compared to the year-ago quarter [2]. Fiscal Year Projections - For the entire fiscal year, earnings are projected at $0.18 per share, reflecting a decrease of 72.31% from the previous year, while revenue is expected to be $381.36 million, showing an increase of 34.85% [3]. Analyst Estimates - Recent changes in analyst estimates for TXO Partners LP are crucial as they reflect short-term business trends, with positive revisions indicating a favorable outlook on the company's health and profitability [4]. Zacks Rank and Valuation - TXO Partners LP currently holds a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell), with a consensus EPS projection that has decreased by 21.74% in the past 30 days [6]. - The company is trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 70.67, significantly higher than the industry average of 11.98, indicating a premium valuation [7]. Industry Context - The Energy and Pipeline - Master Limited Partnerships industry, to which TXO belongs, ranks in the bottom 3% of all industries according to the Zacks Industry Rank, which is based on the average Zacks Rank of individual stocks within these groups [7].

Group 1 - TXO Partners LP closed at $14.49, with a +1.68% increase, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.37% [1] - The stock has risen by 5.01% over the past month, surpassing the Oils-Energy sector's gain of 2.31% and the S&P 500's gain of 4.26% [1] Group 2 - TXO Partners LP is expected to report an EPS of $0.08, reflecting a 700% increase from the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is forecasted to be $99.66 million, indicating a 45% increase compared to the same quarter of the previous year [2] Group 3 - For the full year, earnings are projected at $0.23 per share, a decrease of 64.62% from the previous year, while revenue is expected to be $387.8 million, an increase of 37.12% [3] - Recent adjustments to analyst estimates may indicate shifting business dynamics, with positive changes reflecting analyst optimism [3] Group 4 - The Zacks Rank system, which assesses estimate revisions, indicates that TXO Partners LP currently holds a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell) [5] - The Zacks Rank has a historical average annual return of +25% for 1 stocks since 1988 [5] Group 5 - TXO Partners LP has a Forward P/E ratio of 61.96, significantly higher than the industry average of 12.4, suggesting it is trading at a premium [6] - The Energy and Pipeline - Master Limited Partnerships industry ranks in the bottom 13% of all industries, with a current Zacks Industry Rank of 215 [6]