Company Performance - TXO Partners LP (TXO) experienced a decline of 1.18% in its stock price, closing at $15.04, which lagged behind the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.52% [1] - Over the past month, TXO's stock has increased by 1.74%, underperforming compared to the Oils-Energy sector's gain of 3.92% and the S&P 500's gain of 4.27% [1] Upcoming Earnings - TXO is expected to report an EPS of $0.18, reflecting a 100% growth compared to the same quarter last year [2] - The consensus estimate for quarterly revenue is $81.89 million, which represents a 42.89% increase from the previous year [2] Fiscal Year Estimates - For the entire fiscal year, earnings are projected at $0.83 per share and revenue at $391.11 million, indicating increases of 27.69% and 38.29% respectively from the prior year [3] - Recent analyst estimate revisions suggest optimism regarding TXO's business and profitability [3] Valuation Metrics - TXO is currently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 18.34, which is higher than the industry's Forward P/E of 16.59 [6] - The Energy and Pipeline - Master Limited Partnerships industry is part of the Oils-Energy sector and holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 212, placing it in the bottom 14% of over 250 industries [6] Analyst Ratings - The Zacks Rank system, which evaluates stocks from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), currently rates TXO Partners LP as 5 (Strong Sell) [5] - The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the past month, indicating a lack of positive momentum [5]

Company Performance - TXO Partners LP closed at $15.37, reflecting a -2.91% change from the previous day, underperforming the S&P 500's gain of 1.11% [1] - The stock has increased by 3.46% over the past month, which is below the Oils-Energy sector's gain of 5.39% and the S&P 500's gain of 3.92% [1] Upcoming Earnings - Analysts expect TXO Partners LP to report earnings of $0.18 per share, indicating a year-over-year growth of 100% [2] - The consensus estimate for revenue is $81.89 million, representing a 42.89% increase from the same quarter last year [2] Full Year Projections - For the full year, earnings are projected at $0.83 per share and revenue at $391.11 million, reflecting changes of +27.69% and +38.29% respectively from the prior year [3] - Recent changes in analyst estimates suggest a favorable outlook on the company's business health and profitability [3] Valuation Metrics - TXO Partners LP has a Forward P/E ratio of 19.07, which is a premium compared to its industry's Forward P/E of 16.22 [6] - The Energy and Pipeline - Master Limited Partnerships industry is ranked 212 in the Zacks Industry Rank, placing it in the bottom 14% of over 250 industries [6] Zacks Rank - TXO Partners LP currently holds a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell), indicating a negative outlook [5] - The Zacks Rank system has a history of outperforming, with stocks rated 1 producing an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [5]

Group 1 - TXO Partners LP closed at $15.69, with a +1.36% change from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.84% [1] - Over the last month, TXO's shares increased by 1.84%, while the Oils-Energy sector remained flat and the S&P 500 gained 1.44% [1] Group 2 - The upcoming earnings report for TXO is expected to show an EPS of $0.18, a 100% increase year-over-year, with revenue forecasted at $81.89 million, reflecting a 42.89% growth [2] - For the entire fiscal year, earnings are projected at $0.83 per share and revenue at $391.11 million, indicating increases of +27.69% and +38.29% respectively from the prior year [3] Group 3 - Recent changes to analyst estimates for TXO are important as they reflect the shifting dynamics of short-term business patterns, with positive revisions indicating analysts' confidence in performance [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which evaluates estimate changes, currently ranks TXO Partners LP as 5 (Strong Sell), indicating a stagnant EPS projection over the past 30 days [6] Group 4 - TXO Partners LP has a Forward P/E ratio of 18.65, which is higher than the industry average of 17.08, suggesting a premium valuation [7] - The Energy and Pipeline - Master Limited Partnerships industry, part of the Oils-Energy sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 212, placing it in the bottom 14% of over 250 industries [7]

Core Insights - The article discusses various strategies for investing in dividend stocks, highlighting the balance between stable income and growth potential [1][2][3] Group 1: Dividend Stock Strategies - Traditional dividend investing focuses on established companies that provide steady payouts, appealing during market volatility [1] - An alternative approach involves seeking companies with higher growth potential, albeit with increased risk of dividend cuts [2][3] Group 2: Eagle Point Credit - Eagle Point Credit Co. Inc. (NYSE: ECC) offers a high dividend yield of 21.87% with an annual dividend of $1.68 and a significant annualized 3-year dividend growth of 13.57% [4] - The company has invested nearly $200 million in new investments in Q1, benefiting from lower debt costs and beating earnings expectations by 2 cents per share [5] - Despite a high payout ratio of -420%, analysts project nearly 11% upside potential for ECC shares, indicating possible capital appreciation [6] Group 3: Mach Natural Resources - Mach Natural Resources LP (NYSE: MNR) has a dividend yield of 24.18% and an annual dividend of $3.16, with a payout ratio of 197.50% [8] - Analysts unanimously rate MNR as a Buy, estimating over 80% upside potential, despite the stock falling nearly a third in the past year [8][9] - The company is transitioning to natural gas drilling, which may align with increasing demand for cleaner energy sources [9] Group 4: TXO Partners - TXO Partners LP (NYSE: TXO) has a dividend yield of 16.26% and a payout ratio of 580.95%, with a Buy rating and about 34% upside potential [11] - The company is expanding by acquiring property in the Elm Coulee field for approximately $350 million, which may impact its dividend schedule [12][13] - The Elm Coulee field is estimated to contain around four billion barrels of oil, presenting potential for both capital appreciation and passive income [13]

Core Viewpoint - TXO Partners LP has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.00, indicating a Strong Buy based on recommendations from three brokerage firms, all of which are Strong Buy [2] Group 1: Brokerage Recommendations - The current ABR of TXO Partners LP is derived from three Strong Buy recommendations, representing 100% of the total recommendations [2] - Despite the Strong Buy recommendation, relying solely on this information for investment decisions may not be prudent, as studies show limited success of brokerage recommendations in predicting stock price increases [5][10] - Analysts from brokerage firms tend to exhibit a strong positive bias in their ratings, with five "Strong Buy" recommendations for every "Strong Sell" [6][10] Group 2: Zacks Rank vs. ABR - The Zacks Rank, a proprietary stock rating tool, is a reliable indicator of near-term price performance, contrasting with the ABR which is based solely on brokerage recommendations [8][11] - The Zacks Rank is driven by earnings estimate revisions, which are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements, while the ABR may not be up-to-date [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TXO Partners LP has declined by 25.9% over the past month, leading to a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell) for the company [13][14] Group 3: Investment Implications - The significant decline in the consensus estimate and the Zacks Rank of 5 suggest that the positive ABR for TXO Partners LP should be approached with caution [14]

Core Insights - TXO Partners LP reported quarterly earnings of $0.24 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.36 per share, and down from $0.33 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of -33.33% [1] - The company posted revenues of $84.33 million for the quarter, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.40%, compared to $67.44 million in the same quarter last year [2] - TXO Partners LP has not surpassed consensus EPS estimates over the last four quarters [2] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.34 on revenues of $82.99 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $1.33 on revenues of $326.08 million [7] - The estimate revisions trend for TXO Partners LP is currently unfavorable, resulting in a Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell) for the stock, indicating expected underperformance in the near future [6] Industry Context - The Energy and Pipeline - Master Limited Partnerships industry is currently in the bottom 7% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a challenging environment for stocks in this sector [8] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which could impact investor sentiment [5]

Financial Performance - Total revenues increased by $16.9 million, or 25%, from $67.4 million in Q1 2024 to $84.3 million in Q1 2025, primarily due to a 282 MBoe increase in production and a 19% increase in average selling price of natural gas [123]. - Net income for Q1 2025 was $2.4 million, a decrease from $10.3 million in Q1 2024, impacted by increased expenses and lower oil prices [119]. - Cash available for distribution was $29.3 million in Q1 2025, compared to $22.8 million in Q1 2024, reflecting improved operational cash flow [119]. Production and Expenses - Production expenses rose by $9.2 million, or 28%, from $33.1 million in Q1 2024 to $42.3 million in Q1 2025, with $8.5 million attributed to production from Williston Basin acquisitions [124]. - Depreciation, depletion, and amortization increased by $10.9 million, or 104%, from $10.5 million in Q1 2024 to $21.4 million in Q1 2025, mainly due to higher production rates from Williston Basin acquisitions [129]. - General and administrative expenses decreased by $0.2 million, or 8%, from $2.7 million in Q1 2024 to $2.4 million in Q1 2025, primarily due to lower personnel costs [131]. - Interest expense increased by $2.6 million, or 271%, from $1.0 million in Q1 2024 to $3.6 million in Q1 2025, primarily due to increased borrowings [134]. Market Conditions - The company reported a high of $86.91 per Bbl for crude oil and $4.49 per MMBtu for natural gas during the period from January 1, 2024, to March 31, 2025, with a low of $65.75 per Bbl and $1.58 per MMBtu respectively [102]. - The company anticipates continued volatility in crude oil and natural gas markets, which will significantly impact revenue and profitability [103]. - Inflationary pressures have increased operating costs, particularly for steel, chemicals, transportation, and wages, with no short-term reversal expected [104]. - The company is taking actions to mitigate inflationary pressures by ensuring the availability of critical supplies [106]. Leadership and Governance - Leadership changes include the appointment of Brent W. Clum and Gary D. Simpson as Co-Chief Executive Officers effective April 1, 2025 [99]. - The company has appointed Lawrence S. Massaro to the board of directors and the Audit Committee effective April 1, 2025 [100]. Cash Flow and Financing - Net cash provided by operating activities increased by $5.4 million to $30.6 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to $25.2 million for the same period in 2024 [144]. - Net cash used by investing activities increased by $3.8 million to $6.8 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, primarily due to an increase in development costs of $5.5 million [145]. - Net cash used in financing activities decreased by $1.9 million to $20.2 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to $22.1 million for the same period in 2024 [145]. - Proceeds from long-term debt increased significantly to $36.0 million in Q1 2025 from $10.0 million in Q1 2024 [145]. - The weighted average interest rate on Credit Facility borrowings was 8.0% for the three months ended March 31, 2025 [148]. - As of March 31, 2025, the company had $155.0 million in debt outstanding and $120.0 million available under its Credit Facility [152]. - The company entered into Amendment No. 4 of its Credit Facility, increasing the borrowing base from $165 million to $275 million and extending the maturity date to August 30, 2028 [146]. Obligations and Future Plans - The company budgeted approximately $30.0 - $50.0 million for drilling, completion, and recompletion activities in 2025 [139]. - The company expects to fund its distributions, meet debt obligations, and finance its 2025 capital development programs from cash flow from operations and borrowings under its Credit Facility [141]. - The current liability related to derivative contracts was $25.6 million and the long-term liability was $8.5 million as of March 31, 2025 [154]. - Asset retirement obligations totaled $193.4 million, including a current portion of $3.0 million as of March 31, 2025 [155].

Core Viewpoint - TXO Partners LP is expected to report a year-over-year increase in earnings and revenues for the quarter ended March 2025, with the consensus outlook being crucial for assessing the company's earnings picture [1] Earnings Expectations - The consensus estimate for TXO's quarterly earnings is $0.36 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 9.1% [3] - Revenues are anticipated to reach $88.21 million, which is a 30.8% increase from the same quarter last year [3] Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 27.17% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4] - The Most Accurate Estimate for TXO is the same as the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of 0% [10][11] Earnings Surprise Prediction - A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 [8] - TXO currently holds a Zacks Rank of 5, making it challenging to predict an earnings beat [11] Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, TXO was expected to post earnings of $0.39 per share but only achieved $0.26, resulting in a surprise of -33.33% [12] - Over the past four quarters, TXO has only beaten consensus EPS estimates once [13] Conclusion - TXO Partners LP does not appear to be a compelling candidate for an earnings beat, and investors should consider other factors when making investment decisions [16]

Core Viewpoint - TXO Partners LP is experiencing a decline in stock performance, with a significant drop over the past month, while upcoming earnings are expected to show growth in both EPS and revenue [1][2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - TXO Partners LP closed at $17, reflecting a gain of +0.29% from the previous session, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.06% [1]. - The stock has depreciated by 11.49% over the past month, underperforming the Oils-Energy sector's loss of 10.24% and the S&P 500's loss of 4.29% [1]. Group 2: Earnings Expectations - Analysts predict TXO Partners LP will report an EPS of $0.36, indicating a growth of 9.09% compared to the same quarter last year [2]. - Revenue is anticipated to be $88.21 million, reflecting a 30.8% increase from the same quarter last year [2]. - For the full year, earnings are expected to be $1.33 per share and revenue of $326.08 million, marking changes of +104.62% and +15.3% respectively from last year [3]. Group 3: Analyst Estimates and Rankings - Recent changes to analyst estimates for TXO Partners LP suggest a positive outlook, with revisions indicating optimism about the company's business trends [4]. - The Zacks Rank system currently rates TXO Partners LP as 5 (Strong Sell), with a consensus EPS projection moving 25.14% lower in the past 30 days [6]. Group 4: Valuation Metrics - TXO Partners LP has a Forward P/E ratio of 12.79, which is a premium compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 11.89 [7]. - The Energy and Pipeline - Master Limited Partnerships industry, part of the Oils-Energy sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 241, placing it in the bottom 3% of over 250 industries [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the reliability of brokerage recommendations, particularly focusing on TXO Partners LP, and highlights the disparity between brokerage ratings and actual stock performance, suggesting that investors should be cautious in relying solely on these recommendations [1][5][10]. Group 1: Brokerage Recommendations for TXO Partners LP - TXO Partners LP has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.00, indicating a Strong Buy based on recommendations from three brokerage firms, all of which are Strong Buy [2][4]. - Despite the Strong Buy recommendation, the article cautions against making investment decisions solely based on this information, as studies show limited success of brokerage recommendations in predicting stock price increases [5][10]. Group 2: Limitations of Brokerage Recommendations - Brokerage firms often exhibit a strong positive bias in their ratings due to vested interests, leading to a disproportionate number of Strong Buy recommendations compared to Strong Sell [6][10]. - The interests of brokerage firms may not align with those of retail investors, providing little insight into future stock price movements [7][10]. Group 3: Zacks Rank vs. ABR - The Zacks Rank is presented as a more reliable indicator of near-term stock performance, based on earnings estimate revisions, and is classified into five groups from Strong Buy to Strong Sell [8][11]. - Unlike the ABR, which is based solely on brokerage recommendations and may not be up-to-date, the Zacks Rank reflects timely changes in earnings estimates, making it a more effective tool for predicting stock price movements [9][12]. Group 4: Current Earnings Estimates for TXO - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TXO Partners LP has declined by 27.5% over the past month to $1.39, indicating growing pessimism among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [13]. - This decline in earnings estimates has resulted in a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell) for TXO Partners LP, suggesting that the previously favorable ABR should be viewed with skepticism [14].