Michael Wiggins De Oliveira is an inflection investor. This means buying into cheap companies at the moment when their narrative is changing and the business is on a path toward becoming significantly more profitable over the next year.With a focus on tech and “the Great Energy Transition (including uranium)”, Michael runs a concentrated portfolio with approximately 15 to 20 stocks and an average holding period of 18 months. Through his 10+ years analyzing countless companies, Michael has accumulated outsta ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Attractive" industry view for North America [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights a framework of "visibility to free cash flow (FCF) vs valuation" to analyze potential durable outperformance in the current macroeconomic environment, with META, GOOGL, and UBER identified as top performers [1][10]. - The macroeconomic outlook includes muted GDP growth expectations of 0.6% and 0.5% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, alongside firming inflation and a steady Federal Reserve [2]. - The report emphasizes the interconnectedness of e-commerce and digital advertising, noting that e-commerce drives online advertising and vice versa, with META positioned as the most resilient in the face of tariff impacts [4][5]. Summary by Sections Macro Factors - The focus is on three macro factors: business confidence, hiring trends, and consumer spending health, which are critical for driving investment and hiring decisions [2]. Tariff Exposure - The report details the estimated exposure of U.S. imports from China across various e-commerce companies, with AMZN and RVLV having around 18% exposure, while PTON and FIGS have less than 2% [3][19]. - It discusses the potential ripple effects of China tariffs on digital advertising, particularly affecting smaller businesses and 1P/3P sellers [4]. Visibility vs Valuation Framework - The report employs a quadrant analysis to assess visibility and valuation support, indicating that companies with higher visibility on earnings and cash flow are likely to receive more investor capital first [10][11]. - META and GOOGL are highlighted for their high margin and reasonable valuations, with META favored due to its audience engagement factors and innovations [13]. Company-Specific Insights - CHWY is noted for its high resilience and FCF visibility due to its autoship model, while UBER is recognized for its smaller standard deviation of FCF in 2026 [14][15]. - Companies like BKNG and DASH are also mentioned for their visibility and execution capabilities, while FIGS and PTON face more risks due to their discretionary nature and tariff impacts [16][17]. Price Target Changes - The report outlines price target adjustments for several companies, including a reduction for GOOGL from $210 to $185 and for META from $660 to $615, reflecting lowered revenue estimates due to macroeconomic pressures [39][40].

Industry Overview - The Internet Software and Services sector is experiencing growth due to increased IT spending on hybrid operating environments and the high penetration of mobile devices, prompting businesses to invest in web-based infrastructure, applications, and security software [1][3] - The Internet Software industry is ranked in the top 37% of Zacks Industry Rank, indicating an expectation to outperform the market in the next three to six months [2] Growth Drivers - The industry is benefiting from the global digital transformation and the rapid adoption of Software as a Service (SaaS), which provides flexible and cost-effective application delivery [3] - There is a growing demand for web-based cybersecurity software due to the need to secure cloud platforms against cyber-attacks, leading to increased demand for performance management monitoring tools [5] Company Highlights Affirm Holdings Inc. (AFRM) - Affirm is projected to achieve revenues between $3.13 billion and $3.19 billion in fiscal 2025, driven by growing active merchant numbers and partnerships with companies like Apple Pay [11] - The expected revenue and earnings growth rates for Affirm are 36.9% and 96.4%, respectively, for the current year, with a short-term price target indicating a potential upside of 112.4% from the last closing price of $40.49 [12][13] Five9 Inc. (FIVN) - Five9 offers intelligent cloud software for contact centers, benefiting from the adoption of AI tools, with a focus on personalized AI agents [14][16] - The expected revenue and earnings growth rates for Five9 are 9.8% and 5.7%, respectively, with a short-term price target suggesting a maximum upside of 190.4% from the last closing price of $23.07 [17] Unity Software Inc. (U) - Unity provides a platform for creating interactive, real-time 3D content across various devices, catering to developers and content creators [18][19] - The expected revenue and earnings growth rates for Unity are -2% and 31%, respectively, with a short-term price target indicating a potential upside of 82% from the last closing price of $19.23 [20][21] Olo Inc. (OLO) - Olo operates an open SaaS platform for restaurants, facilitating digital ordering and payment solutions, enhancing guest experiences [22][23] - The expected revenue and earnings growth rates for Olo are 17.5% and 40.9%, respectively, with a short-term price target suggesting a maximum upside of 62.1% from the last closing price of $6.17 [25] StoneCo Ltd. (STNE) - StoneCo provides financial technology solutions for electronic commerce in Brazil, distributing through proprietary Stone Hubs [26] - The expected revenue and earnings growth rates for StoneCo are 4.1% and -6.7%, respectively, with a short-term price target indicating a potential upside of 90.8% from the last closing price of $11.53 [27][28]

Core Insights - The individual has retired after over 43 years in investment research, now operating independently to provide actionable investment insights [1] - The focus is on rules and factor-based equity investing strategies, emphasizing the use of numbers to inspire human intelligence-driven investment stories rather than solely relying on statistical studies [1] - The individual combines factor analysis with classic fundamental analysis to uncover the true story of companies and their stocks, highlighting the importance of future potential over past performance [1] Experience and Background - The individual has extensive experience covering a wide range of stocks, including large cap, small cap, micro cap, value, growth, and income [1] - Previous roles include managing a high-yield fixed-income fund and conducting research on quantitative asset allocation strategies, contributing to the development of Robo Advising [1] - The individual has authored two books on stock selection and analysis and has a passion for investor education, having conducted numerous seminars [1]

Core Viewpoint - Unity Software Inc. (U) is experiencing significant selling pressure, with a 20.1% decline over the past four weeks, but is now positioned for a potential trend reversal as it enters oversold territory, supported by analyst expectations of better earnings than previously predicted [1]. Group 1: Technical Indicators - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is utilized to identify oversold stocks, with a reading below 30 indicating oversold conditions [2]. - Unity's current RSI reading is 28.83, suggesting that the heavy selling pressure may be exhausting, indicating a potential trend reversal [5]. Group 2: Fundamental Indicators - There is a strong consensus among sell-side analysts that Unity will report improved earnings, leading to a 2.4% increase in the consensus EPS estimate over the last 30 days [7]. - Unity holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises, indicating a strong potential for a turnaround [8].

Unity Software (U) shares have plunged 36.3% in the trailing 12 months, underperforming the Zacks Internet – Software industry, Zacks Computer and Technology sector and the S&P 500 index’s decline of 5%, 7.6% and 2.2%, respectively.The company’s underperformance can be attributed to several external factors like macroeconomic headwinds and intense competition that are affecting investor confidence. Despite the market's negative reaction, U’s strategic initiatives reveal promising future growth potential. Le ...

Core Viewpoint - Unity Software Inc. has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), indicating a positive outlook on its earnings estimates, which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][3]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Performance - The Zacks rating system is based on changes in earnings estimates, which are closely correlated with stock price movements [4][6]. - Unity Software is expected to earn -$1.19 per share for the fiscal year ending December 2025, reflecting a year-over-year change of 29.2% [8]. - Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Unity Software has increased by 6% [8]. Zacks Rating System - The Zacks Rank stock-rating system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with Zacks Rank 1 stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [7]. - Only the top 5% of Zacks-covered stocks receive a 'Strong Buy' rating, indicating superior earnings estimate revisions [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - Unity Software Inc. has experienced a downtrend, losing 13.8% over the past week, but a hammer chart pattern suggests a potential trend reversal as buying interest may be emerging to counteract selling pressure [1][2]. Technical Analysis - The hammer chart pattern indicates a potential bottom in a downtrend, characterized by a small candle body and a long lower wick, suggesting that bears may be losing control [4][5]. - This pattern forms when a stock opens lower, makes a new low, but then finds support and closes near its opening price, indicating a possible shift in momentum [4][5]. Fundamental Analysis - Recent upward revisions in earnings estimates for Unity Software are viewed as a bullish indicator, correlating strongly with near-term stock price movements [7]. - The consensus EPS estimate for the current year has increased by 2.9% over the last 30 days, reflecting analysts' optimism about the company's earnings potential [8]. Analyst Sentiment - Unity Software holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), placing it in the top 5% of over 4,000 ranked stocks, which typically outperform the market [9]. - A Zacks Rank of 1 is a strong indicator of a potential trend reversal, suggesting that the company's prospects are improving [9].

Which of these fallen tech stocks has a better shot at getting back up? BlackBerry (BB -0.88%) and Unity Software (U -4.96%) were both once high-growth tech stocks that lost their momentum and disappointed their investors. BlackBerry was once the world's top smartphone maker, but it lost that booming market to Apple's (AAPL -2.67%) iPhones and Android-powered devices. It subsequently stopped producing phones and expanded its cybersecurity and Internet of Things (IoT) services, even as it struggled to keep p ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the challenges and opportunities in high growth tech stocks amidst recent market turmoil, emphasizing the need for optimism and resilience [1] - Bert Hochfeld, the author, has extensive experience in the tech industry and has been recognized for his analytical work, particularly in the software sector [1] - Hochfeld founded his own research company, which provided services to major institutions and was recognized for the performance of his hedge fund, the Hepplewhite Fund, prior to his conviction for misappropriating funds [1] Group 2 - The article does not provide any specific investment recommendations or advice, focusing instead on the author's personal insights and experiences [2][3]