Core Viewpoint - Under Armour, Inc. (NYSE: UAA) is at a critical juncture where its stock performance could vary significantly based on investor sentiment and market conditions [1]. Company Analysis - The investment thesis emphasizes a blend of value investing principles and a focus on long-term growth potential, suggesting that Under Armour may be undervalued [1]. - The strategy involves purchasing quality companies at a discount to their intrinsic value and holding them for long-term gains, which aligns with the company's growth trajectory [1].

Core Insights - Under Armour Inc (NYSE:UAA) shares increased by 0.8% to $6.26 following a fiscal fourth-quarter report that showed a narrower-than-expected loss and revenue that exceeded estimates, indicating successful turnaround efforts by the company despite challenging macroeconomic conditions [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - UAA is currently facing its 80-day moving average and is down 24.5% year-to-date for 2025, although shares have risen nearly 10% in May, surpassing the $6 mark [2] - The options market is experiencing high activity, with total options volume at three times the average daily pace, indicating strong investor interest [3] Group 2: Options Activity - The most popular options are the May 6 put and call, reflecting bullish sentiment among traders [3] - Short interest has decreased by 6.3% in the latest reporting period, but 32.80 million shares sold short still represent 17.4% of UAA's total float, suggesting a potential for a short squeeze [3]

Core Insights - Under Armour reported revenue of $1.18 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, reflecting an 11.4% decline year-over-year, with an EPS of -$0.08 compared to $0.11 in the same quarter last year [1] - The revenue exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.16 billion by 1.52%, while the EPS surpassed the consensus estimate of -$0.09 by 11.11% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Total Doors: 441, below the two-analyst average estimate of 465 [4] - North America Net Revenues: $689.40 million, exceeding the average estimate of $664.36 million, but down 10.7% year-over-year [4] - Asia-Pacific Net Revenues: $164.83 million, below the average estimate of $174.60 million, representing a 27.3% decline year-over-year [4] - Latin America Net Revenues: $45.09 million, below the average estimate of $50.19 million, reflecting a 10.3% decrease year-over-year [4] - EMEA Net Revenues: $278.62 million, slightly above the average estimate of $274.97 million, with a year-over-year change of -1.9% [4] - Footwear Net Revenues: $281.85 million, below the average estimate of $300.17 million, showing a 16.6% decline year-over-year [4] - Apparel Net Revenues: $780.37 million, above the average estimate of $765.79 million, but down 11.1% year-over-year [4] - Total Net Sales: $1.15 billion, slightly above the average estimate of $1.13 billion, with an 11.6% year-over-year decline [4] - Accessories Net Revenues: $91.50 million, exceeding the average estimate of $80.22 million, with a year-over-year increase of 2.3% [4] - License Revenues: $24.22 million, slightly below the average estimate of $24.53 million, reflecting a 14.9% decline year-over-year [4] - Wholesale Net Revenues: $767.60 million, above the average estimate of $742.17 million, but down 9.7% year-over-year [4] - Direct to Consumer Net Revenues: $386.11 million, below the average estimate of $405.57 million, representing a 15.1% decline year-over-year [4] Stock Performance - Under Armour shares have returned +14.2% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +9.1% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Group 1 - Under Armour reported a quarterly loss of $0.08 per share, better than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.09, and compared to earnings of $0.11 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 11.11% [1] - The company posted revenues of $1.18 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.52%, but down from $1.33 billion year-over-year [2] - Under Armour has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times over the last four quarters and has topped consensus revenue estimates four times as well [2] Group 2 - Under Armour shares have declined approximately 25% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has only declined by 0.6% [3] - The company's earnings outlook is crucial for investors, as it includes current consensus earnings expectations for upcoming quarters and any recent changes to those expectations [4] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is breakeven on $1.17 billion in revenues, and $0.36 on $5.1 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year [7] Group 3 - The Zacks Industry Rank indicates that the Textile - Apparel industry is currently in the bottom 23% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting potential underperformance compared to higher-ranked industries [8] - Another company in the same industry, Guess, is expected to report a quarterly loss of $0.51 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of -88.9%, with revenues projected at $630.96 million, up 6.6% from the previous year [9]

Revenue Performance - Fourth quarter revenue decreased 11% to $1.2 billion, with North American revenue down 11% to $689 million and international revenue down 13% to $489 million[3]. - Full year revenue decreased 9% to $5.2 billion, with North American revenue down 11% to $3.1 billion and international revenue down 6% to $2.1 billion[8]. - Net revenues for the three months ended March 31, 2025, were $1,180,583, a decrease of 11.4% compared to $1,332,197 for the same period in 2024[22]. - The company's total net revenue declined by 9.4% year-over-year, with a currency-neutral net revenue growth of -8.9%[35]. - North America experienced a GAAP net revenue decline of 11.4%, while the Asia-Pacific region saw a significant decline of 13.5%[35]. Profitability and Loss - Operating loss for the fourth quarter was $72 million, with an adjusted operating loss of $36 million after excluding transformation and restructuring expenses[3]. - Adjusted net income for the full year was $135 million, while the net loss was $201 million[8]. - The company reported a net loss of $67,457 for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to a net income of $6,568 in the same period of 2024[20]. - For the year ended March 31, 2025, Under Armour reported a net loss of $201.3 million, compared to a net income of $232.0 million for the previous year[32]. - The GAAP diluted net loss per share for the year was $0.47, while the adjusted diluted net income per share was $0.31[44]. Gross Margin and Costs - Gross margin increased 170 basis points to 46.7%, driven by lower product and freight costs and reduced direct-to-consumer discounting[3]. - Gross margin for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 is anticipated to increase by 40 to 60 basis points, driven by a favorable product mix and lower costs[13]. - Gross profit for the three months ended March 31, 2025, was $550,782, representing a gross margin of 46.7%, compared to 45.0% in the same period of 2024[20]. Expenses and Restructuring - Selling, general, and administrative expenses are expected to decrease approximately 40% compared to the first quarter of fiscal 2025, excluding last year's litigation settlement expense[13]. - Adjusted selling, general and administrative expenses for the year were $2.28 billion, down from $2.60 billion in the previous year[38]. - The company incurred restructuring charges of $15,726 for the three months ended March 31, 2025[20]. Stock Repurchase and Cash Position - The company repurchased $25 million of Class C common stock in the fourth quarter, totaling 12.8 million shares repurchased for $90 million under a $500 million program[6]. - The company repurchased $90.0 million in common stock during the year, compared to $75.0 million in the previous year[32]. - Under Armour's cash and cash equivalents decreased to $515.1 million by the end of the period, down from $876.9 million at the beginning[32]. Future Outlook - For the first quarter of fiscal 2026, revenue is expected to decrease 4% to 5% compared to the same period last year[13]. - The company anticipates an operating income of $5 million to $15 million for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, with adjusted operating income projected between $20 million and $30 million[13]. - The company plans to achieve an adjusted income from operations of between $20 million and $30 million for the quarter ending June 30, 2025[48]. Inventory and Assets - Total current assets decreased to $2,329,097 as of March 31, 2025, down from $2,863,682 as of March 31, 2024[30]. - The company reported a decrease in inventory to $945,836 as of March 31, 2025, from $958,495 as of March 31, 2024[30]. - Total liabilities decreased to $2,410,593 as of March 31, 2025, compared to $2,607,448 as of March 31, 2024[30]. Store Operations - As of March 31, 2025, Under Armour operated a total of 441 doors, slightly up from 440 doors in the previous year[51].

Under Armour repurchased $25 million of its Class C common stock in the fourth quarter, retiring 4.1 million shares. As of March 31, 2025, a total of 12.8 million shares had been repurchased for $90 million as part of a three-year, $500 million program approved by the Board of Directors in May 2024. Revenue was down 11 percent to $1.2 billion (down 10 percent currency neutral). North American revenue decreased 11 percent to $689 million, while international revenue declined 13 percent to $489 million (down ...

Financial Performance - Under Armour Inc is expected to report a loss of nine cents per share on revenue of $1.16 billion, significantly lower than the same quarter last year [1] - Year to date, Under Armour's stock is down 27.9% [1] Stock Movement and Analyst Sentiment - The stock was up 4.5% at $5.97, but has faced resistance at the $6 level since an April 3 bear gap [1] - The majority of analysts are bearish, with 20 out of 23 analysts maintaining a "hold" or worse rating, and Telsey Advisory has reduced its price target from $10 to $7 [3] - The analyst consensus price target is currently at $7.67 [3] Historical Stock Behavior - Over the last two years, Under Armour stock has only closed three post-earnings sessions lower, with the most recent decline occurring in February [4] - The stock has averaged an 8% next-day swing following earnings reports, which is lower than the 12.5% move that options markets are currently pricing in [4]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street analysts anticipate Under Armour (UAA) will report a quarterly loss of $0.09 per share, reflecting a significant year-over-year decline of 181.8%, with revenues expected to be $1.16 billion, down 13.1% from the previous year [1] Earnings Estimates - Over the last 30 days, there has been a 33.3% upward revision in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter, indicating a collective reassessment by covering analysts [2] - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price performance [3] Revenue Projections by Product - Analysts forecast 'Net revenues by product- Footwear' to reach $300.17 million, indicating a year-over-year decline of 11.1% [4] - 'Net revenues by product- Apparel' are expected to be $758.05 million, reflecting a decrease of 13.6% year-over-year [5] - 'Net revenues by product- Net Sales' are projected at $1.12 billion, down 14.1% from the year-ago quarter [5] - 'Net revenues by product- Accessories' are estimated at $80.22 million, indicating a decline of 10.3% from the prior year [5] - 'Net revenues by product- License revenues' are expected to reach $24.53 million, down 13.8% year-over-year [6] Revenue Projections by Distribution Channel - 'Net revenues by distribution channel- Wholesale' are projected to be $735.44 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 13.5% [6] - 'Net revenues by distribution channel- Direct to Consumer' are expected to be $396.87 million, indicating a change of -12.7% from the prior year [7] Regional Revenue Estimates - 'Net revenues- North America' are estimated at $661.06 million, down 14.4% from the previous year [7] - 'Net revenues- Asia-Pacific' are projected at $174.60 million, indicating a significant decline of 23% year-over-year [8] - 'Net revenues- EMEA' are expected to reach $274.97 million, reflecting a change of -3.2% from the prior year [8] - 'Net revenues- Latin America' are projected at $50.19 million, indicating a minimal decline of 0.1% [8] Company Metrics - Analysts estimate 'Total Doors' will arrive at 465, an increase from 440 reported in the same quarter last year [9] - Over the past month, Under Armour shares have recorded a return of +1.6%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +11.3% change [9] - Under Armour holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), suggesting it may outperform the overall market in the upcoming period [9]

Company Overview - Under Armour (UAA) is expected to report a year-over-year decline in earnings due to lower revenues for the quarter ended March 2025, with a consensus EPS estimate of a loss of $0.09 per share, representing a -181.8% change from the previous year [1][3] - Revenues are anticipated to be $1.16 billion, down 13.1% from the same quarter last year [3] Earnings Expectations - The earnings report is scheduled for release on May 13, 2025, and could influence the stock price significantly depending on whether the actual results exceed or fall short of expectations [2] - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 33.33% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a more optimistic outlook from analysts [4] Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) model shows a positive Earnings ESP of +20.75% for Under Armour, suggesting a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [10][11] - The company currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), which further supports the expectation of an earnings beat [11] Historical Performance - Under Armour has a strong track record, having beaten consensus EPS estimates in the last four quarters, including a notable surprise of +166.67% in the most recent quarter [12][13] Industry Context - In comparison, Crocs (CROX), another player in the textile-apparel industry, is expected to report earnings of $2.51 per share for the same quarter, reflecting a -16.9% year-over-year change, with revenues projected at $909.58 million, down 3.1% [17] - Crocs has a negative Earnings ESP of -0.32% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), making it challenging to predict an earnings beat [18]

Core Viewpoint - Under Armour (UAA) shows potential for significant upside, with a mean price target of $8.47 indicating a 46% increase from the current price of $5.80 [1] Price Targets and Estimates - The mean estimate consists of 15 short-term price targets with a standard deviation of $2.97, indicating variability among analysts [2] - The lowest estimate is $4, suggesting a 31% decline, while the highest estimate predicts a surge of 158.6% to $15 [2] - Analysts' price targets are often questioned for their reliability, as they may mislead investors rather than provide accurate guidance [3][7] Earnings Estimates - Analysts are optimistic about UAA's earnings, with a consensus indicating better-than-previously estimated earnings [4] - A positive trend in earnings estimate revisions has historically correlated with stock price movements, suggesting potential upside [11] - Over the last 30 days, one estimate has increased, leading to a 0.4% rise in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year [12] Zacks Rank and Investment Potential - UAA holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimates [13] - While the consensus price target may not be a reliable indicator of the extent of UAA's potential gains, it does provide a directional guide for price movement [13]