Company Overview - Valero Energy (VLO) shares increased by 3.4% to close at $148.67, with a notable trading volume compared to normal sessions, and a total gain of 12.1% over the past four weeks [1][2] Refining Sector Insights - The surge in Valero's stock is attributed to its strong position in the refining sector and an anticipated improvement in refining margins in the U.S. due to a decline in domestic refining capacity from the closure of major refineries [2] - Valero operates a robust network of refineries with a throughput capacity of 3.2 million barrels per day, positioning the company to benefit from rising refining margins [2] - The company's low-cost operations in refining allow it to maintain profitability across commodity cycles, further enhancing its growth potential [2] Renewable Energy Initiatives - Valero's involvement in producing renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) positions it as a leader in the low-carbon fuels market, contributing to its growth drivers [2] Earnings Expectations - Valero is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.75 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 35.4%, with revenues projected at $27.93 billion, down 19% from the previous year [3] - The consensus EPS estimate for Valero has been revised 7.1% higher over the last 30 days, indicating a positive trend that typically correlates with stock price appreciation [4] Industry Context - Valero Energy is part of the Zacks Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry, which includes other companies like World Kinect (WKC) [5] - World Kinect's consensus EPS estimate has changed by -6.1% over the past month, with a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell), contrasting with Valero's more favorable outlook [6]

Core Viewpoint - Valero Energy is expected to report a significant decline in earnings and revenue in its upcoming financial results, with analysts projecting a decrease in both metrics compared to the previous year [2][3]. Financial Performance - Valero Energy's earnings per share (EPS) for the upcoming quarter is projected to be $1.77, reflecting a 34.69% decrease from the same quarter last year [2]. - The anticipated revenue for the same quarter is $27.83 billion, indicating a 19.3% decline from the previous year [2]. - For the entire year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates forecast earnings of $6.19 per share and revenue of $115.9 billion, representing changes of -27% and -10.76%, respectively, compared to the previous year [3]. Analyst Estimates - Recent revisions in analyst estimates for Valero Energy suggest a positive outlook on the company's business operations and profit generation capabilities [3]. - The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has shifted 1.79% upward over the past month, indicating some analyst optimism [5]. Valuation Metrics - Valero Energy has a Forward P/E ratio of 22.12, which is higher than its industry's Forward P/E of 17.86, suggesting a premium valuation [6]. - The company has a PEG ratio of 2.39, compared to the industry average PEG ratio of 1.58, indicating that the stock may be overvalued relative to its expected earnings growth [7]. Industry Context - The Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry, which includes Valero Energy, currently holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 148, placing it in the bottom 40% of all industries [8].

Refining Operations - Valero has 15 refineries with a high-complexity throughput capacity of 3.2 million barrels per day[7] - Valero's refining segment adjusted EBITDA per barrel averaged $7.20 from 2015 to 2024[192] - Valero's global wholesale volumes reached 1.517 million barrels per day in 2024, representing 60% of total light products production[80] Low-Carbon Fuels - Valero has a renewable diesel production capacity of up to 1.2 billion gallons per year[8] - The Diamond Green Diesel (DGD) Port Arthur plant has the capability to upgrade approximately 235 million gallons per year of renewable diesel production capacity to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)[8, 39] - Valero's ethanol plants have a combined production capacity of 1.7 billion gallons per year[9] Financial Performance and Capital Allocation - Valero's average payout ratio to stockholders has been 70% since 2014, or 58% excluding 2020[16] - Valero has reduced shares outstanding by over 38% since 2014[16] - Valero's cumulative EBITDA from renewable diesel reached $2.957 billion, with cumulative capital expenditures of $1.986 billion[34] - Valero targets a 20% to 30% net debt-to-capital ratio[47]

Group 1: Stock Performance - Valero Energy (VLO) closed at $137.06, down 2.86% from the previous day, underperforming the S&P 500 which gained 0.96% [1] - Over the past month, Valero's shares have increased by 9.76%, outperforming the Oils-Energy sector's gain of 6.67% and the S&P 500's gain of 0.5% [1] Group 2: Upcoming Earnings Release - Valero Energy's earnings report is expected on July 24, 2025, with an anticipated EPS of $1.77, representing a 34.69% decline compared to the same quarter last year [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects net sales of $27.83 billion, down 19.3% from the year-ago period [2] Group 3: Fiscal Year Projections - For the entire fiscal year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates project earnings of $6.19 per share and revenue of $115.9 billion, reflecting changes of -27% and -10.76% respectively from the prior year [3] - Recent changes to analyst estimates indicate a favorable outlook on Valero's business health and profitability [3] Group 4: Zacks Rank and Valuation - Valero Energy currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), with the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate moving 1.01% higher over the past month [5] - The company has a Forward P/E ratio of 22.79, which is a premium compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 17.67 [6] Group 5: PEG Ratio and Industry Ranking - Valero's PEG ratio is currently 2.46, compared to the industry average PEG ratio of 1.62 [7] - The Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry, which includes Valero, ranks in the bottom 42% of all industries according to the Zacks Industry Rank [8]

Group 1 - Valero Energy Corp's stock has gained nearly 40% since April, leading analysts to anticipate profit-taking due to overbought conditions [1] - The stock has faced resistance at the $142.50 level, which has historically led to sell-offs when reached [2][3] - Previous instances of reaching this resistance level resulted in traders placing sell orders, creating a pattern of selling pressure [4] Group 2 - The current overbought conditions at the resistance level suggest that a sell-off may occur soon, as traders anticipate a reversal [5]

The second quarter is set up for a meaningful rebound in earnings for Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO ). The company’s industry leading cost profile gives VLO a leading edge in returning cash to shareholdersI am a Licensed Professional Engineer who works in the Nuclear Power industry. I use my professional working knowledge of the power/energy industries to aid in evaluating potential equities worthy of long-term investment. I invest in income producing equities and rental real estate properties for cash flow and ...

Company Overview - Valero Energy (VLO) closed at $128.97, reflecting a -0.15% change from the previous trading day, underperforming the S&P 500 which had a daily loss of 0.01% [1] - The stock has increased by 12.43% over the past month, outperforming the Oils-Energy sector's gain of 2.31% and the S&P 500's gain of 6.43% [1] Earnings Projections - The upcoming EPS for Valero Energy is projected at $2.54, indicating a 6.27% decline compared to the same quarter last year [2] - Quarterly revenue is estimated at $27.88 billion, down 19.16% from the previous year [2] - For the full year, earnings are projected at $6.08 per share and revenue at $115.97 billion, reflecting changes of -28.3% and -10.71% respectively from the prior year [3] Analyst Sentiment - Recent shifts in analyst projections for Valero Energy are important for investors, as positive revisions indicate optimism about the company's business and profitability [4] - The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has decreased by 0.35% in the past month, and Valero Energy currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [6] Valuation Metrics - Valero Energy has a Forward P/E ratio of 21.23, which is higher than the industry average Forward P/E of 16.76 [7] - The company has a PEG ratio of 2.29, compared to the industry average PEG ratio of 1.48 [8] Industry Context - The Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry, which includes Valero Energy, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 139, placing it in the bottom 44% of over 250 industries [9] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Zacks Oil and Gas - Refining & Marketing industry is experiencing a paradox where strong fundamentals coexist with weak refining margins and market sentiment, primarily due to economic slowdown concerns and regulatory uncertainties [1][3][4]. Industry Overview - The industry includes companies that sell refined petroleum products and operate terminals, storage facilities, and transportation services, with refining margins being highly volatile and influenced by various factors such as inventory levels and capacity utilization [2]. Trends Defining the Industry's Future - Despite healthy demand for diesel and gasoline, refining margins have not met expectations, indicating a disconnect likely driven by macroeconomic concerns [3]. - The transition from the Blenders' Tax Credit to the Production Tax Credit has negatively impacted renewable diesel profitability, leading to reduced output and uncertainty regarding future recovery [4]. Long-Term Outlook - The refining industry is positioned for a favorable mid-cycle environment, supported by structural advantages in the U.S. market, including access to domestic crude and low-cost inputs [5]. - Marathon Petroleum anticipates continued global demand growth for refined products, despite upcoming capacity reductions in the U.S. and Europe [5]. Industry Performance - The Zacks Oil and Gas - Refining & Marketing industry ranks 139 out of 245 Zacks industries, placing it in the bottom 43% and indicating dull near-term prospects [6][7]. - The industry's earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have decreased by 38.3% and 19.7%, respectively, over the past year, reflecting a negative outlook [9]. Comparative Performance - Over the past year, the industry has underperformed compared to the broader Zacks Oil - Energy Sector and the S&P 500, with a decline of 16.9% versus an 8.2% decrease for the sector and a 12.5% gain for the S&P 500 [10]. Current Valuation - The industry is currently trading at an EV/EBITDA ratio of 3.76X, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 16.65X and the sector's 4.59X, indicating a potentially undervalued position [14]. Stocks in Focus - **Marathon Petroleum**: A leading independent refiner with a market cap of $48.7 billion, known for strong cash flow generation and shareholder returns, though shares have lost 9% in the past year [18][19]. - **Phillips 66**: Operates 13 refineries with a total capacity of 2.2 million barrels per day, shares have decreased by 19% in the past year [21][22]. - **Valero Energy**: The largest independent refiner in the U.S. with a capacity of 3.2 million barrels per day, shares have lost 18% in the past year [25][27]. - **Galp Energia**: A Portuguese firm with a market cap of $11.3 billion, shares have decreased by 25% in the past year [28][29].

Group 1 - IonQ, Inc. is considered "too speculative" and is losing significant money, according to Jim Cramer [1] - IonQ formed a strategic partnership with the Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information to advance South Korea's quantum technology goals [1] - Oklo Inc. is viewed as being "five years behind" GE Vernova, leading to a preference for GE Vernova over Oklo [1] Group 2 - Valero Energy reported first-quarter sales of $30.26 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $28.68 billion [2] - Cramer prefers Phillips over Valero Energy, suggesting Valero has already seen too much growth [2] - Verona Pharma is described as a "rocket ship" but is also highly speculative due to significant losses and insider selling [2] Group 3 - Centrus Energy reported better-than-expected first-quarter revenue results [3] - Cramer advises caution regarding Centrus Energy, recommending GE Vernova instead [3] Group 4 - Valero Energy shares increased by 1.7% to $130.71 [4] - IONQ shares rose by 5.1% to $48.04 [4] - Verona Pharma shares gained 0.7% to $75.61 [4] - Centrus Energy shares surged by 12.9% to $127.86 [4] - Oklo shares jumped by 10.3% to $53.90 [4]

Group 1 - The oil market continues its strong performance, with WTI crude oil futures rising 2.8% to $63.67 per barrel and Brent crude oil futures increasing 2.6% to $66.63 per barrel, marking the largest four-day gain since October of the previous year [1] - The positive market sentiment is driven by a breakthrough in US-China trade negotiations, where both parties agreed to suspend new tariffs for 90 days, alleviating concerns over weak energy demand [1] - The US Labor Department reported a narrowing year-on-year increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 2.3%, the lowest in four years, which has led institutions like JPMorgan and Barclays to lower recession forecasts for the US economy [1] Group 2 - Geopolitical factors are also providing support, with the Trump administration adopting a hardline stance towards Iran, raising concerns about the stability of Middle Eastern supply [2] - Demand signals are turning positive, as a JPMorgan report indicates that despite uncertainties in crude oil demand, the refined oil market remains strong, with gasoline and diesel prices stable [2] - The refining sector is experiencing a bullish response in the secondary market, with companies like PBF Energy rising 10.1% and Delek US increasing by 6.1% [2]