Waste Connections, Inc. (NYSE:WCN) Q2 2024 Earnings Conference Call July 25, 2024 8:30 AM ET Company Participants Ron Mittelstaedt - President & Chief Executive Officer Mary Anne Whitney - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants Tyler Brown - Raymond James Kevin Chiang - CIBC Bryan Burgmeier - Citi Noah Kaye - Oppenheimer Toni Kaplan - Morgan Stanley Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs Jack Wilson - Truist Securities James Schumm - TD Cowen Sabahat Khan - RBC Capital Markets ...

Revenue Growth - Total revenues increased by $227.1 million, or 11.2%, to $2.248 billion for the three months ended June 30, 2024, compared to $2.021 billion for the same period in 2023[169]. - Acquisitions closed during the three and six months ended June 30, 2023, contributed an increase of $123.4 million and $204.0 million to revenues, respectively[170]. - The net increase in prices charged to customers at existing operations was $131.2 million for the three months ended June 30, 2024, consisting of $135.7 million in core price increases[171]. - Revenues from sales of recyclable commodities increased by $15.2 million and $30.6 million for the three and six months ended June 30, 2024, respectively, attributed to higher average commodity pricing[175]. - Other revenues increased by $9.7 million during the three months ended June 30, 2024, primarily due to higher landfill gas revenues[177]. - Revenue for the three months ended June 30, 2024, increased by $35.0 million to $453.9 million compared to $418.9 million for the same period in 2023, driven by price increases and acquisitions[234]. - Overall revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, reached $4,320.8 million, with an EBITDA of $1,348.4 million, resulting in a margin of 31.2%[236]. Operating Performance - Operating income for the three months ended June 30, 2024, was $424.7 million, representing an 18.8% margin compared to 17.0% in the same period of 2023[169]. - Operating income for the three months ended June 30, 2024, increased by $80.6 million, or 23.4%, to $424.7 million compared to $344.1 million for the same period in 2023[205]. - For the six months ended June 30, 2024, operating income rose by $132.7 million, or 20.1%, to $791.5 million from $658.8 million in the prior year[207]. - Operating income as a percentage of revenues increased by 1.8 percentage points to 18.8% for the three months ended June 30, 2024, compared to 17.0% for the same period in 2023[209]. - EBITDA for the three months ended June 30, 2024, rose by $14.8 million to $134.4 million, resulting in a margin of 29.6%, up from 28.5% in the prior year[235]. - EBITDA for the Southern segment increased by $8.8 million to $138.5 million, with a margin of 31.5%, compared to 31.3% in the previous year[241]. - EBITDA for the Eastern segment increased by $16.6 million to $103.1 million, achieving a margin of 26.7%, up from 25.2% in the prior year[244]. - EBITDA for the Central segment rose by $7.8 million to $138.8 million, with a margin of 36.0%, compared to 35.5% in the previous year[247]. Cost and Expenses - Total cost of operations increased by $103.7 million, or 8.7%, to $1.301 billion for the three months ended June 30, 2024, compared to $1.197 billion for the same period in 2023[178]. - Operating costs at existing operations increased by $48.4 million, primarily due to higher labor and recurring incentive compensation expenses of $17.5 million and an increase in risk management expenses of $5.1 million[179]. - SG&A expenses increased by $12.5 million, or 5.8%, to $228.9 million for the three months ended June 30, 2024, from $216.4 million for the same period in 2023[185]. - Depreciation expense increased by $27.9 million, or 13.1%, to $241.2 million for the three months ended June 30, 2024, from $213.3 million for the same period in 2023[192]. - Amortization of intangibles expense increased by $5.0 million, or 13.0%, to $44.1 million for the three months ended June 30, 2024, from $39.1 million for the same period in 2023[195]. - Cost of operations as a percentage of revenues decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 57.9% for the three months ended June 30, 2024, from 59.2% for the same period in 2023[183]. Net Income and Taxes - Net income attributable to Waste Connections was $275.5 million for the three months ended June 30, 2024, or 12.2% of revenues, compared to $209.2 million, or 10.3%, in the prior year[169]. - Income taxes for the three months ended June 30, 2024, increased by $12.0 million to $80.6 million, with an effective tax rate of 22.6% compared to 24.7% in the prior year[222]. - Reported net income attributable to Waste Connections for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was $505,531 thousand, compared to $407,021 thousand in 2023, reflecting a 24.2% increase[294]. - Adjusted net income attributable to Waste Connections for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was $588,714 thousand, a 19.5% increase from $492,723 thousand in 2023[294]. Cash Flow and Investments - Net cash provided by operating activities increased by $85.0 million to $1.102 billion for the six months ended June 30, 2024, from $1.017 billion for the same period in 2023[261]. - Net cash used in investing activities increased by $1.189 billion to $1.794 billion for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to $604.6 million for the same period in 2023[264]. - Net cash provided by financing activities increased by $1.091 billion to $701.9 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024, from a net cash used of $389.3 million for the same period in 2023[264]. - Cash dividends paid during the six months ended June 30, 2024, amounted to $147.3 million, compared to $131.1 million for the same period in 2023[266]. - Cash paid for acquisitions increased by $1.223 billion during the period[267]. - Capital expenditures for property and equipment totaled $387.2 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024, with an expected total of approximately $1.150 billion for 2024[270]. Debt and Financing - Long-term borrowings increased by $1.135 billion, with a net increase of $907.2 million during the six months ended June 30, 2024[267]. - The company has $7.779 billion in long-term debt obligations, with significant payments due in the coming years[279]. - As of June 30, 2024, $1.774 billion was outstanding under the revolving credit facility, with $38.9 million in standby letters of credit[277]. - The company completed a public offering of $750.0 million aggregate principal amount of 5.00% Senior Notes due 2034[271]. Market and Economic Factors - Inflationary pressures have been observed, particularly in fuel, materials, and labor costs, but the company believes it can pass through certain cost increases to customers[296]. - A $0.10 per gallon increase in diesel fuel prices would decrease pre-tax income by approximately $2.5 million during the second half of 2024[307]. - A 10% decrease in average recycled commodity prices would impact revenues by $10.8 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to $6.8 million for the same period in 2023[308]. - A $0.01 change in the Canadian dollar to U.S. dollar exchange rate would affect annual revenue by approximately $18.0 million and EBITDA by $8.0 million[309]. Operational Insights - The company managed operations through six geographic solid waste operating segments for the six months ended June 30, 2024[226]. - For the six months ended June 30, 2024, the total disposal tonnage at owned operational landfills was 25,587 thousand tons, an increase of 4.2% from 24,554 thousand tons in 2023[287]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was $1,382,485 thousand, up 15.6% from $1,195,756 thousand in 2023[291]. Internal Controls and Compliance - The company has evaluated its disclosure controls and procedures, concluding they were effective as of June 30, 2024[312]. - There were no changes in internal control over financial reporting that materially affected the company during the quarter ended June 30, 2024[313].

Core Insights - Waste Connections (WCN) reported quarterly earnings of $1.24 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.18 per share, and up from $1.02 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 5.08% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $2.25 billion for the quarter ended June 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.44% and increasing from $2.02 billion year-over-year [2] - Waste Connections has consistently outperformed consensus EPS and revenue estimates over the last four quarters [2] Financial Performance - The earnings surprise for the previous quarter was 1.96%, with actual earnings of $1.04 per share compared to an expected $1.02 [1] - Year-to-date, Waste Connections shares have increased by approximately 21.1%, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 16.5% [3] Future Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $1.33 on revenues of $2.28 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $4.79 on revenues of $8.8 billion [7] - The estimate revisions trend for Waste Connections is mixed, resulting in a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the market [6] Industry Context - The Waste Removal Services industry ranks in the top 31% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook compared to lower-ranked industries [8] - Another company in the same industry, Arq, Inc. (ARQ), is expected to report a quarterly loss of $0.05 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of +76.2% [9]

Exhibit 99.1 WASTE CONNECTIONS REPORTS SECOND QUARTER 2024 RESULTS AND RAISES FULL YEAR OUTLOOK TORONTO, ONTARIO, July 24, 2024 - Waste Connections, Inc. (TSX/NYSE: WCN) ("Waste Connections" or the "Company") today announced its results for the second quarter of 2024 and increased its outlook for the full year. "Solid operational execution supplemented by incremental acquisitions and increased commodity values drove an across the board beat in the second quarter, positioning us for an increase to our full y ...

Core Viewpoint - Waste Connections is positioned to potentially beat earnings estimates in its upcoming report, supported by a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [1][2]. Company Performance - Waste Connections has an Earnings ESP of +1.02%, indicating a bullish outlook from analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [2]. - The company has a strong track record of surpassing earnings estimates, averaging a 2.37% beat over the last two quarters [5]. - In the most recent quarter, Waste Connections reported earnings of $1.04 per share against an expectation of $1.02, resulting in a surprise of 1.96% [6]. - For the previous quarter, the company reported $1.11 per share, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.08, which represented a surprise of 2.78% [6]. Industry Context - Waste Connections operates within the Zacks Waste Removal Services industry, which is characterized by companies that often beat consensus EPS estimates [5]. - The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a favorable Zacks Rank is shown to produce positive surprises nearly 70% of the time, suggesting a strong predictive power for stocks in this industry [1].

Please note all $ figures in $USD, not $CAD, unless otherwise stated. When looking at the latest quarterly results for Q1'24 for Waste Connections, the company reported revenue of $2.073 billion, which was up 9.1% year over year. This was a beat of $18 million compared to consensus estimates, so results came in better than expected. On adjusted EBITDA, Q1'24 came in at $651 million, beating the consensus estimate of $641 million (source: Bloomberg). EPS of $1.04 came in ahead of consensus of a dollar. In my ...

Core Viewpoint - Waste Connections (WCN) is anticipated to report a year-over-year increase in earnings driven by higher revenues for the quarter ending June 2024, with the consensus outlook indicating a significant impact on its near-term stock price based on actual results compared to estimates [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The consensus estimate for Waste Connections' quarterly earnings is projected at $1.18 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +15.7% [3]. - Expected revenues for the quarter are $2.21 billion, which represents a 9.6% increase from the same quarter last year [4]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating that analysts have not significantly altered their initial projections during this period [5]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Waste Connections is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in a positive Earnings ESP of +1.85%, suggesting a bullish outlook from analysts [11]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - A positive Earnings ESP is a strong indicator of a potential earnings beat, especially when combined with a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) [9]. - Waste Connections currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [12][13]. Historical Performance - Over the last four quarters, Waste Connections has successfully beaten consensus EPS estimates each time, which may influence expectations for the upcoming report [15]. - In the last reported quarter, the company was expected to post earnings of $1.02 per share but exceeded this with actual earnings of $1.04, resulting in a surprise of +1.96% [17].

Core Viewpoint - Waste Connections (WCN) has shown strong performance over the past year and is expected to maintain this momentum, making it a compelling addition to investment portfolios [1]. Performance Overview - WCN's stock has increased by 27.3% over the past year, outperforming the industry average of 23.3% and the Zacks S&P 500 composite's rise of 25.5% [2]. Investment Ratings - WCN holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) and a VGM Score of B, indicating strong investment potential. Stocks with a VGM Score of A or B combined with a Zacks Rank of 1 or 2 are considered the best investment opportunities [3]. Earnings Estimates - In the past 60 days, one estimate for WCN's 2024 earnings has been revised upward, reflecting analysts' confidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 earnings has seen a slight increase [4]. Earnings Surprise History - WCN has a positive earnings surprise history, having exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters with an average earnings surprise of 2.1% [4]. Growth Projections - Revenue growth is projected at 9.7% for 2024 and 6.9% for 2025, while earnings are expected to rise by 15.8% in 2024 and 13.6% in 2025. The long-term earnings per share growth rate is estimated at 12.9% [5]. Growth Drivers - WCN has a strong pipeline of solid waste opportunities, with expected margin expansions and operational efficiencies due to strategic shedding and non-renewals of contracts [6]. Renewable Gas Initiatives - The company is advancing its development of renewable gas (RNG) facilities, with three expected to be operational this year. These projects are anticipated to generate an additional $200 million in EBITDA by early 2026 [7].

Have you been paying attention to shares of Waste Connections (WCN) ? Shares have been on the move with the stock up 7.1% over the past month. The stock hit a new 52-week high of $181.39 in the previous session. Waste Connections has gained 20.9% since the start of the year compared to the 8.4% move for the Zacks Business Services sector and the 18.8% return for the Zacks Waste Removal Services industry. Valuation Metrics Waste Connections has a Value Score of C. The stock's Growth and Momentum Scores are B ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q1 2024 was $2.073 billion, exceeding expectations by $23 million, and up $172 million or 9.1% year-over-year [23] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 was $650.7 million, a 14.8% increase year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 31.4%, up 160 basis points year-over-year [29] - Net interest expense increased by $10.8 million to $76.4 million due to higher outstanding debt and interest rates [30] - Adjusted free cash flow was approximately $325 million, aligning with expectations for the full year of $1.2 billion [32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Solid waste organic growth was driven by a core pricing increase of 7.8%, with reported volume growth at negative 3.8% due to weather impacts [15][25] - Daily roll-off pulls decreased by 3% year-over-year, while daily landfill tons were down 6% [26] - Revenues from recycled commodities, landfill gas, and renewable energy credits increased by about 50% year-over-year [28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects total price growth for 2024 to be in the range of 6% to 7%, with 75% of core price already in place or specified by contract [24] - The impact of weather-related closures accounted for about 1% of volume losses in Q1 [25] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on long-term value creation through acquisitions, with approximately $375 million in annualized revenue from completed acquisitions to date [19] - Development of renewable gas facilities is ongoing, with three expected to be operational this year, contributing an anticipated $200 million in annual EBITDA starting in 2026 [21] - The company aims to improve employee retention and safety through expanded training programs, including in-house driver academies [13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in exceeding the full-year margin outlook of 32.7% due to improved employee retention, safety trends, and rising commodity values [4] - The company anticipates a sequential increase in reported volumes in Q2, assuming typical seasonal activity [17] - Management noted that new federal regulations regarding PFAS are expected to create a uniform playing field and potential M&A opportunities [48] Other Important Information - The company completed a public offering of $750 million in senior notes to reduce borrowing costs [30] - The effective tax rate for Q1 was just under 21%, benefiting from an investment tax credit associated with an RNG facility [31] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide more detail on the margin improvement in Q1? - Management indicated that excluding weather impacts, normalized margins were up 200 basis points, with contributions from commodity-driven factors and acquisitions [43][44] Question: What are the implications of the new PFAS regulations? - Management believes the regulations will create opportunities for well-capitalized companies and does not expect significant capital cost increases [48][50] Question: Can you elaborate on the Q2 volume guidance? - Management indicated that the volume decline reflects margin opportunities and is influenced by M&A activity [56] Question: What is the expected contribution from recycled commodities and RINs in Q2? - Management expects the contribution from recycled commodities to decrease in Q2 compared to Q1, with underlying business growth driving margins [59] Question: How is the company addressing open positions and employee training? - Management reported a reduction in open positions to about 4% and aims for one-third of new hires to come from in-house training programs [70][71] Question: What is the outlook for M&A opportunities? - Management noted active discussions and signed LOIs across all regions, with a balanced approach to acquisitions [92]