Core Viewpoint - The Williams Companies, Inc. (WMB) is an energy infrastructure company that has underperformed compared to the broader market and certain ETFs, despite a mixed earnings surprise history and a generally positive analyst outlook [2][5][6]. Company Overview - WMB is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma, and focuses on connecting North America's hydrocarbon resources to markets for natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and olefins. The company has a market capitalization of $68.9 billion and operates midstream gathering and processing assets along with interstate natural gas pipelines [1]. Stock Performance - Over the past year, WMB shares have gained 8.4%, while the S&P 500 Index has increased by nearly 18.5%. Year-to-date, WMB stock is up 4.4%, compared to a 15.1% rise in the S&P 500 [2]. - WMB has outperformed the First Trust Nasdaq Oil & Gas ETF (FTXN), which has declined about 7.5% over the past year, with WMB's year-to-date returns surpassing the ETF's 5.7% losses [3]. Recent Financial Results - On November 3, WMB reported its Q3 results, with an adjusted EPS of $0.49, which fell short of Wall Street expectations of $0.51. The company's revenue was $2.9 billion, also below the forecast of $3 billion. WMB expects full-year adjusted EPS to be in the range of $2.01 to $2.19 [4]. Analyst Expectations - For the current fiscal year ending in December, analysts expect WMB's EPS to grow by 14.1% to $2.19 on a diluted basis. The company's earnings surprise history is mixed, with two beats and two misses in the last four quarters [5]. - Among 23 analysts covering WMB, the consensus rating is a "Moderate Buy," with 13 "Strong Buy" ratings, two "Moderate Buys," seven "Holds," and one "Strong Sell" [5]. - The analyst outlook has become more bullish, with 12 analysts suggesting a "Strong Buy." RBC Capital's Elvira Scotto reiterated a "Buy" rating with a price target of $75, indicating a potential upside of 32.7% from current levels. The mean price target of $68.15 represents a 20.6% premium, while the highest target of $83 suggests an upside potential of 46.9% [6].

Industry Overview & Growth Drivers - Natural gas is considered a key enabler for the US economy, especially for powering the next generation of technology and AI [3][4] - The industry views natural gas as America's affordability superpower, costing the equivalent of 50 cents per gallon of gasoline on an energy equivalent basis [3] - The industry believes natural gas can scale fast, meet customer needs, and is the most dispatchable and fastest speed to market capability at scale [4][7] - The industry emphasizes the need for an "all the above" approach to energy, but sees natural gas as a crucial resource in the near term [8] Infrastructure & Regulatory Challenges - The industry expresses hope that the current administration is recognizing the affordability challenge and speeding up approvals for energy projects [8] - Lack of infrastructure is hindering economic investment in regions like New England and New York, where 20% of the population resides but receives less than 2% of economic investment for manufacturing and data centers [10][11] - Some states are perceived to be "weaponizing" the permitting process, creating regulatory burdens that make it difficult to build infrastructure [12][13] - It has been over a decade since new infrastructure was built in New York [10] Company Strategy & Future Outlook - Williams handles roughly a third of all natural gas in the US, operating 33,000 miles of pipelines [1] - Williams is focused on ensuring the US has the infrastructure and energy available to reach its full potential, engaging with hyperscalers to meet their needs [15][16] - Williams is working on projects to power data centers in the next 12-18 months, while also expanding infrastructure to build out the grid over time [18]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Williams, is experiencing significant growth driven by increasing power demand from AI and data centers, despite a decline in share prices. The CEO emphasizes the critical role of natural gas as an affordable and scalable energy source for the economy and technology sectors [1][4]. Industry Insights - Natural gas is described as America's "affordability superpower," with production costs equivalent to 50 cents per gallon of gasoline, highlighting its economic advantages [3]. - The company believes that natural gas will be essential for powering the next generation of technology, including AI, due to its dispatchable nature and rapid scalability [4][7]. - There is a recognition of the need for infrastructure development in the energy sector, as electricity production has stagnated over the past 25 years [6]. Market Dynamics - The CEO notes that natural gas infrastructure is expected to be a key enabler for both the near and mid-term energy landscape, contrasting it with other energy forms that may take longer to develop [5]. - The disparity in natural gas prices across regions, particularly in New England, is attributed to a lack of infrastructure, with prices sometimes exceeding three times the national average [9][10]. Regulatory Environment - The company faces challenges in building infrastructure due to regulatory hurdles and permitting processes that have been weaponized by certain state authorities [12][13]. - There are hopeful signs that the administration is recognizing the need for a more rational approach to energy infrastructure development [8][14]. Future Outlook - The company is actively engaging with hyperscalers to ensure that energy infrastructure meets the growing demands of AI and data centers, with projects aimed at delivering solutions within 12 to 18 months [16][18]. - The CEO expresses optimism about the potential of AI solutions to modernize energy systems and improve efficiency [17].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 increased by 13% to $1.92 billion from $1.7 billion in Q3 2024, driven by higher revenues from expansion projects [11][12][14] - The company expects a midpoint EPS guidance of $2.10 for 2025, reflecting a 9% growth over 2024 and a 14% five-year CAGR [14][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Transmission, power, and Gulf business improved by $117 million, or 14%, due to higher revenues from expansion projects [11] - Northeast G&P business improved to $21 million, primarily from higher gathering and processing rates, with overall volumes up about 6% [12] - Gulf gathering volumes increased over 36% year-over-year, and NGL production rose about 78% [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 14% overall volume growth, driven by the Haynesville region and the Sabre acquisition [12] - The Gulf region saw contributions from the Whale project and the Shenandoah project, which started up in July [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on strengthening its core business through deliberate expansion projects and increasing its backlog of attractive new opportunities [5][6] - A strategic LNG partnership and asset divestiture are part of the wellhead to water strategy, with a recent agreement to sell Haynesville upstream assets for $398 million [6][7] - The company plans to invest approximately $1.9 billion in capital into pipeline and LNG terminal projects, targeting fixed-fee, fully contracted cash flows [8][9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in continued industry-leading growth, supported by a backlog of fully contracted projects [14][15] - The company anticipates a five-year EBITDA CAGR of approximately 9% and a five-year EPS CAGR of approximately 14% [15] - Management highlighted the importance of natural gas in managing energy affordability across the U.S. [49] Other Important Information - The company announced a planned investment of approximately $3.1 billion into two additional power innovation projects, with total committed capital now at approximately $5.1 billion [10] - The company is advancing its power innovation business, with a focus on delivering infrastructure solutions for clean, reliable, and affordable energy [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide insights on the power innovation opportunities? - Management noted robust engagement and interest in speed to market and long-term power needs, with a backlog of commercialized projects exceeding $5 billion [21][22] Question: Can you elaborate on the recent LNG deal and its strategic logic? - The strategy focuses on connecting customers to the best end-use markets, with a small investment into an LNG facility that enhances the ability to attract customers [25][28] Question: What is the status of the procurement cycle for turbines? - Management confirmed confidence in being ahead of equipment needs through strategic partnerships, with projects expected to layer in through the end of the decade [33][34] Question: How does the company view the balance sheet's ability to sustain capital spending? - The balance sheet is expected to remain within the targeted leverage range, with high-returning organic investment opportunities filling capacity [42][44] Question: What is the outlook for the transmission side and the ability to expand Transco? - Management indicated that the expandability of Transco is fairly unlimited, with robust demand across the southeast and Gulf regions [76][79]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 increased by 13% to $1.92 billion from $1.7 billion in Q3 2024, driven by higher revenues from expansion projects [11][14] - The company expects a midpoint EPS guidance of $2.10 for 2025, reflecting a 9% growth over 2024 and a 14% five-year CAGR [14][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Transmission, power, and Gulf business improved by $117 million, or 14%, due to higher revenues from expansion projects [11] - Gulf gathering volumes increased by over 36% year-over-year, while NGL production rose by about 78% [12] - Northeast G&P business improved to $21 million, primarily due to higher gathering and processing rates [12] - The West segment saw an increase of $37 million, or 11%, driven by contributions from the Louisiana energy gateway project and higher Haynesville volumes [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 14% overall volume growth, driven by growth in the Haynesville region [12] - The company continues to see robust demand across its operational footprint, particularly in the Southeast and Gulf regions [78] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on strengthening its core business through deliberate expansion projects and increasing its backlog of attractive new opportunities [5][9] - A strategic LNG partnership and asset divestiture are part of the wellhead to water strategy, with a recent agreement to sell upstream assets for $398 million [6][7] - The company plans to invest approximately $1.9 billion in pipeline and LNG terminal projects, targeting fixed-fee, fully contracted cash flows [8][9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving a five-year EBITDA CAGR of approximately 9% and a five-year EPS CAGR of approximately 14% [15] - The company is optimistic about the growth opportunities in the LNG market, emphasizing the importance of connecting customers to international markets [25][28] - Management highlighted the need for natural gas infrastructure to manage energy affordability across the U.S. [49][50] Other Important Information - The company has a backlog of fully contracted projects, which provides confidence in continued growth [14] - The planned investment in power innovation projects now stands at approximately $5.1 billion, with a targeted five-times EBITDA build multiple [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide an update on the power innovation opportunities? - Management noted robust engagement and interest in speed to market and long-term power needs, with a backlog of commercialized projects exceeding $5 billion [21] Question: Can you elaborate on the recent LNG deal and its strategic rationale? - The LNG deal is seen as a strategic transaction that enhances the company's ability to connect customers to international markets, with a focus on demand-driven strategies [25][28] Question: What is the status of the procurement cycle for turbines? - Management indicated confidence in being ahead of equipment needs through the end of the decade, with ongoing discussions for future projects [33][70] Question: How does the company view the expandability of Transco? - Management stated that the expandability of Transco is fairly unlimited, with a majority of the project backlog focused along the Transco corridor [78] Question: What is the current status of NESI and Constitution projects? - Management expressed confidence that the elections would not impact NESI or Constitution, with both projects continuing to progress [50][51]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $1.92 billion, up 13% from $1.7 billion in Q3 2024, driven by higher revenues from expansion projects [10][12] - The company maintained its adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2025 at a midpoint of $7.75 billion, expecting 9% growth over 2024 [13][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Transmission, power, and Gulf business improved by $117 million, or 14%, due to higher revenues from expansion projects [10] - Gulf gathering volumes increased over 36% year-over-year, and NGL production rose about 78% [11] - Northeast G&P business improved to $21 million, primarily due to higher gathering and processing rates [11] - The West segment was up $37 million, or 11%, driven by contributions from the Louisiana energy gateway project and higher Haynesville volumes [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 14% overall volume growth, driven by growth in the Haynesville region [12] - The company is expanding its pipeline capacity to accommodate increased LNG exports and power demand growth in the Gulf Coast and Southeast regions [4][5] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on strengthening its core business through deliberate expansion projects and strategic investments, including a partnership with Woodside Energy for a new LNG pipeline [5][6] - The company plans to invest approximately $1.9 billion in capital into pipeline and LNG terminal projects to support growing global LNG demand [6][9] - The company aims to enhance its core infrastructure business while maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation [8][15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in continued industry-leading growth, with a five-year EBITDA compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9% and a five-year EPS CAGR of approximately 14% [15] - The management highlighted the importance of natural gas as a key factor in managing energy affordability across the U.S. [44][45] Other Important Information - The company has a backlog of fully contracted projects, which provides confidence in continued growth [14] - The company is advancing its wellhead to water strategy through a strategic LNG partnership and asset divestiture [5][6] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide an update on the power innovation opportunities? - Management noted robust engagement and interest in power innovation projects, with a backlog of commercialized projects exceeding $5 billion [19][20] Question: Can you elaborate on the recent LNG deal and its strategic logic? - The LNG deal is part of a demand-driven strategy to connect customers to international markets, enhancing the company's ability to attract customers [22][23] Question: What is the status of the procurement cycle for turbines? - Management indicated confidence in their position with equipment suppliers and the ability to meet project needs through the end of the decade [29][31] Question: How does the company view the growth outlook and capital spending? - Management expressed optimism about the investment opportunities and the balance sheet's ability to sustain high levels of capital expenditure [37][40] Question: What is the status of the NESI and Constitution projects? - Management is hopeful for progress on NESI and Constitution post-election, with NESI on a quicker timeline [45][46] Question: Can you clarify the offtake capacity at the LNG facility? - The LNG terminal is fully contracted with take-or-pay agreements, primarily with Woodside [72][73]

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Financial Performance - Williams achieved 13% Adjusted EBITDA growth in 3Q 2025 compared to 3Q 2024[3], with Adjusted EBITDA reaching $1.92 billion in 3Q 2025[4] - Adjusted Earnings per Share increased by 14% to $0.49 in 3Q 2025 compared to $0.43 in 3Q 2024[12] - Available Funds From Operations (AFFO) grew by 13% to $1.449 billion in 3Q 2025 compared to $1.286 billion in 3Q 2024[12] - Williams' financial guidance for 2025 projects Adjusted EBITDA between $7.6 billion and $7.9 billion, representing a 9% year-over-year change[28] - Adjusted Diluted EPS for 2025 is guided between $2.01 and $2.19, a 9% increase[28] - Available Funds From Operations (AFFO) for 2025 is projected between $5.56 billion and $5.79 billion, a 6% increase[28] Strategic Initiatives and Projects - Williams is advancing its wellhead to water strategy through a strategic LNG partnership and E&P asset divestiture[2] - The company signed customer agreements for a 10 Bcf Pine Prairie storage expansion[2] - Williams is investing approximately $5.1 billion in power innovation efforts at an attractive 5x Adj EBITDA multiple[24] - Williams is expanding its G&P system, utilizing the Louisiana Energy Gateway, building additional pipelines, and supplying low carbon Haynesville gas to serve international demand growth[26] Market and Operational Context - Total natural gas demand, including exports, averaged 111 Bcf/d in 3Q'25 YTD, an 4% increase from 107 Bcf/d in 3Q'24 YTD[43] - Since 2013, demand for gas has grown by 49%, while infrastructure to deliver gas has increased by 26% and storage delivery capacity has grown by 2%[59] - Williams is targeting a 30% reduction in carbon intensity from 2018 levels by 2028[88]

Two months after my second analysis , The Williams Companies, Inc. ( WMB ) has already had some interesting changes. Its value increased to $64-65 but immediately corrected itself to $56-57. To be honest, the trend made sense because there wereI have been working in the logistics sector for almost two decades. I have been into stock investing and macroeconomic analysis for almost a decade. Currently, I focus on ASEAN and NYSE/NASDAQ Stocks, particularly in banks, telco, logistics, and hotels. Since 2014, I ...

Two months after my second analysis , The Williams Companies, Inc. ( WMB ) has already had some interesting changes. Its value increased to $64-65 but immediately corrected itself to $56-57. To be honest, the trend made sense because there wereI have been working in the logistics sector for almost two decades. I have been into stock investing and macroeconomic analysis for almost a decade. Currently, I focus on ASEAN and NYSE/NASDAQ Stocks, particularly in banks, telco, logistics, and hotels. Since 2014, I ...