Core Viewpoint - Exxon Mobil is set to report its next earnings on January 31, with an estimated earnings per share of $1.79 and projected revenue of $88.23 billion [1] Group 1: Earnings and Revenue - The upcoming earnings report is expected to bring volatility to Exxon Mobil's stock as investors analyze the fundamental details [1] - Historical earnings data shows a long-term earnings per share trend for Exxon Mobil [1] - Quarterly revenue figures for Exxon Mobil are also available for review [1] Group 2: Options and Dividends - Options for Exxon Mobil are available, expiring on January 31, which may attract stock options traders [1] - The current dividend yield for Exxon Mobil stands at 3.55%, with a history of dividend payments available for investors [2] - Dividend investors are encouraged to explore additional top dividend and monthly dividend-paying stock ideas [2]

Valuation and Market Confidence - ExxonMobil's stock is trading at a premium with a trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA of 6.64x, compared to the industry average of 4.19x, indicating strong market confidence in the company's prospects [1] - The company's stock has risen 20% over the past year, outperforming the industry's composite stocks, which rose 15.9% [13] Growth Engines and Strategic Assets - ExxonMobil completed the acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources, adding 1.4 million net acres in the Permian Basin and an estimated 16 billion barrels of oil equivalent resource [4] - The company aims to double Permian Basin production to 2.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMBoE/d) by 2030 [5] - By 2030, more than 60% of ExxonMobil's upstream production will come from advantaged assets like the Permian Basin, Guyana, and liquefied natural gas, which offer lower costs and higher returns [6] Financial Strength and Integrated Model - ExxonMobil has a debt-to-capitalization ratio of 13.34%, significantly lower than the industry average of 22.36% [8] - The company's integrated business model, including refining and chemical businesses, provides protection during oil price declines [7] Cash Flow and Shareholder Value - ExxonMobil plans to generate $165 billion in surplus cash flow from 2025 to 2030, supporting increased shareholder distributions through dividends and share repurchases [11] Clean Energy and Sustainability Commitments - The company plans to invest $30 billion in low-carbon solutions from 2025 to 2030, focusing on carbon capture, storage networks, and hydrogen facilities, including the world's largest low-carbon hydrogen plant in Baytown [12] - 65% of these investments target third-party emission reductions, aligning with global energy transition goals [12] Industry Comparison - Chevron Corporation has a slightly higher debt-to-capitalization ratio of 14.13%, while BP plc's ratio is much higher at 41.82% [10] Uncertainties and Challenges - ExxonMobil's reliance on fossil fuels makes it vulnerable to regulatory challenges and market shifts amid the global energy transition [15] - The company's $140 billion investment plan in major projects and Permian Basin development by 2030 could become a financial strain if energy prices do not meet expectations [16]

Group 1: Natural Gas Discovery - Exxon Mobil Corporation has made a significant natural gas discovery off Egypt's Mediterranean coast, which is crucial for the global energy sector [1] - The Nefertari-1 exploratory well in the North Marakia Block revealed gas-bearing reservoirs, and ExxonMobil will continue to evaluate the results [2] - The Eastern Mediterranean has become a hotspot for natural gas exploration, with the region's proximity to energy-hungry markets enhancing the economic appeal of discoveries [3] Group 2: Egypt's Energy Landscape - Egypt's gas production has declined to its lowest level since 2017, leading to increased imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) [4] - The Egyptian government has launched a repayment plan to restore investor confidence and aims to return to LNG exports by the end of 2027 [5] - The Mediterranean Sea is increasingly important for natural gas discoveries, and ExxonMobil's success could attract further investments to enhance Egypt's status as a gas exporter [6]

Company Performance - Exxon Mobil's stock closed at $111.51, reflecting a +1.63% change from the previous day, underperforming compared to the S&P 500's gain of 1.83% [1] - Over the past month, Exxon Mobil's shares increased by 1.58%, outperforming the Oils-Energy sector's decline of 7.35% and the S&P 500's drop of 3.31% [1] Earnings Forecast - Exxon Mobil is expected to release its earnings on January 31, 2025, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of $1.63, indicating a 34.27% decrease from the same quarter last year [2] - The consensus estimate anticipates revenue of $88.46 billion, which represents a 4.88% increase from the same quarter last year [2] Analyst Estimates - Recent changes in analyst estimates for Exxon Mobil reflect evolving short-term business trends, with positive revisions indicating analyst optimism about the company's profitability [3] - The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has decreased by 5.7% over the past month, and Exxon Mobil currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [5] Valuation Metrics - Exxon Mobil has a Forward P/E ratio of 14.44, which is higher than the industry average Forward P/E of 8.92 [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 2.89, compared to the average PEG ratio of 1.77 for the Oil and Gas - Integrated - International industry [7] Industry Context - The Oil and Gas - Integrated - International industry is part of the Oils-Energy sector and holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 45, placing it in the top 18% of over 250 industries [8]

Group 1 - Exxon Mobil is one of the largest publicly traded oil companies globally, with a market capitalization of just under $500 billion [2] - The Value Portfolio focuses on building retirement portfolios using a fact-based research strategy, which includes analyzing 10Ks, analyst commentary, market reports, and investor presentations [2] - The previous analysis indicated that Exxon Mobil was considered too expensive, suggesting a cautious approach to investment in the company [2]

Core Insights - Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) has requested the Texas General Land Office to keep the terms of its offshore lease agreement for a significant carbon sequestration project confidential, citing proprietary and confidential information [1][3] - The lease covers over 271,000 acres in Texas state waters and is described as the largest offshore carbon-dioxide storage lease in the United States, integral to ExxonMobil's carbon sequestration strategy [2][4] - The company argues that disclosing specific terms could provide competitors with insights into its strategies and rate structures, which are crucial for maintaining a competitive edge in the carbon capture market [3][5] Industry Context - ExxonMobil's actions reflect the competitive dynamics in the carbon capture sector, which is gaining traction among oil and gas companies as a means to reduce carbon emissions [3][5] - The company has been actively pursuing carbon capture opportunities, including a successful bid for federal land for CO2 storage and securing 69 blocks in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico [4] - The focus on carbon capture is part of a broader industry trend towards sustainable energy solutions, positioning ExxonMobil's strategy as a key element in the energy transition [5]

Core Insights - Exxon Mobil is strategically enhancing its energy products segment while sustaining robust oil and gas production in the Permian Basin and offshore Guyana [1] Group 1: Company Strategy - The company is positioning itself for the future economy through a significant upshift in its energy products segment [1] - Exxon maintains strong production levels in key regions, specifically the Permian Basin and offshore Guyana [1] Group 2: Analyst Background - Michael Del Monte, a buy-side equity analyst, has over 5 years of industry experience and a background in various sectors including oil and gas, midstream, and information technology [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the analysis of oil and gas companies, specifically focusing on Exxon Mobil and identifying undervalued companies in the sector [1] - Exxon Mobil issues material facts statements to align market estimates with actual reported figures, reflecting the cyclical nature of the oil and gas industry [2] - The industry is characterized as a boom-bust cycle, requiring patience and experience for successful investment [2] Group 2 - The analyst holds a long position in shares of Exxon Mobil and other companies, indicating a positive outlook on their performance [3] - The article emphasizes the importance of reviewing company documents and press releases for investors to assess their investment qualifications [4]

Core Viewpoint - ExxonMobil is facing challenges in the fourth quarter with a profit warning, but it remains a strong investment opportunity due to its long-term growth plans and industry-leading profitability [2][7]. Financial Performance - In the third quarter, ExxonMobil reported $8.6 billion in profits and $17.6 billion in cash flow from operations, leading the oil industry [1]. - For the fourth quarter, ExxonMobil expects earnings of $1.76 per share, significantly below analysts' expectations and lower than both the previous year's $2.48 and the third quarter's $1.92 [3]. Challenges Faced - The company encountered several headwinds, particularly in refining, where lower margins reduced earnings by $300 million to $700 million, and timing issues cut an additional $500 million to $900 million [4]. - Impairments are expected to result in charges of approximately $600 million, and lower margins in the chemicals business are anticipated to reduce earnings by around $400 million [5]. Upstream Performance - Despite the challenges, earnings from the upstream oil and gas production segment are expected to increase by about $400 million, aided by a 30% rebound in natural gas prices in the U.S. [6]. Future Growth Strategy - ExxonMobil has outlined a 2030 plan aiming for an additional $20 billion in earnings and $30 billion in free cash flow, supported by various strategic initiatives [7]. - The company anticipates generating $165 billion in surplus cash by 2030, allowing for continued dividend increases and stock buybacks, with plans to repurchase $20 billion of shares in 2025 and 2026 [8]. Investment Opportunities - The combination of earnings growth, cash-flow generation, and increased capital returns positions ExxonMobil to create significant value for investors in the coming years [9]. - The stock price is currently about 15% below its 52-week high, presenting a potential buying opportunity for long-term investors [12].

Core Viewpoint - Exxon Mobil Corporation anticipates a decline in fourth-quarter upstream earnings due to changes in oil prices, while gas prices may have a mixed impact on upstream results [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Projections - Fourth-quarter upstream earnings are expected to decrease by $0.9 billion to $0.5 billion due to oil price fluctuations [1]. - Variations in industry margins are projected to affect energy products earnings by $0.7 billion to $0.3 billion, specialty products earnings by $0.1 billion to $0.1 billion, and chemical products earnings by $0.5 billion to $0.3 billion [2]. Group 2: Earnings Estimates - Implied EPS at the midpoint is approximately $1.50, which is below the analyst's estimate of $1.80 and FactSet consensus of $1.76 [2]. - Implied upstream earnings are estimated at approximately $5.7 billion, lower than the analyst's estimate of $6.2 billion [3]. - Implied downstream earnings, including energy and specialty products, are around $1.0 billion, below the estimate of $1.4 billion [3]. - Implied chemicals earnings are approximately $493 million, falling short of the estimate of $853 million [4]. Group 3: Analyst Rating and Price Action - Goldman Sachs has rated Exxon Mobil as Neutral with a price target of $125 [4]. - As of the last check, XOM shares are down 2.43% at $106.11 [4].