华安基金管理有限公司 美联储会议偏鸽，年内点阵图不变,黄金再创历史新高 华安基金 指数与量化投资部 2024.3.25  黄金行情回顾及主要观点： 上周美联储会议偏鸽，会后黄金再创历史新高。伦敦现货黄金收于2165.0美元/盎司（周 环比0.44%），上周四最高触及2222美元历史新高水平。国内AU9999黄金收于511.16元/克 （周环比0.80%）。美债利率回调11bp至4.20%，维持区间横盘震荡。 影响黄金短期走势最为核心的事件落地，3月美联储议息会议释放鸽派信号，点阵图坚持 了年内的三次降息预期。市场对于6月降息的信心也有所提升，从会前的60%提升至75%。根据 历史经验，在美联储降息周期中，美债实际利率下行，有助于黄金的定价逻辑。美联储点阵图 显示，2024-2026年或将是美联储降息周期，黄金迎来中长期配置机会。 此外，投资者关注到过去两年黄金表现明显好于美债，背后的原因是去美元化背景下的全 球央行购金。2022和2023年，全球央行净购金均突破1000吨，创下历史新高。中国央行最新 的外汇数据显示，黄金储备连续16个月增长，购金节奏延续。央行净购金在黄金需求的占比已 经从十年前的10%提高 ...

华安基金管理有限公司 高通胀压制降息预期，黄金横盘震荡，关注本周美联储会议 华安基金 指数与量化投资部 2024.3.18  黄金行情回顾及主要观点： 黄金创新高后步入盘整阶段。国内AU9999黄金突破500元重要关口，收于507.12元/克 （周环比0.25%），伦敦现货黄金收于2155.6美元/盎司（周环比-1.07%）。美债利率快速上行 22bp至4.31%，仍然具备韧性。 黄金盘整，主要受到美国2月通胀数据的影响。美国2月通胀超预期，市场对美联储的降 息预期继续推迟，6月降息概率下降到60%。2月美国CPI同比增3.2%，预期3.1%，环比增 0.4%；核心CPI从3.9%回落至3.8%，高于市场预期的3.7%，核心CPI环比0.4%的增速为8个 月来最大升幅，住房成本和服务成本继续对核心通胀构成支撑。 本周，美联储将召开3月议息会议，本次会议将公布最新点阵图和美联储经济展望，值得 重点关注。当前，美联储的政策节奏偏谨慎，还需更多经济走弱的信号才能给出更鸽派的表 态。在3月美联储利率会议落地前，市场观望情绪较强，建议回调后关注黄金配置价值。 展望后市，在降息周期叠加全球不确定性的环境下，我们对于20 ...

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Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for gold investments, particularly in the context of anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024-2025, which is expected to benefit gold pricing [32][49]. Core Insights - Gold has effectively maintained purchasing power against inflation, with the World Gold Council indicating a significant decline in the value of currencies and commodities relative to gold since 2000 [5][24]. - The report emphasizes the importance of gold as a monetary asset, especially in the context of ongoing global central bank purchases of gold, which supports a bullish sentiment for gold prices in the upcoming quarters [49][50]. - The report identifies key factors influencing gold prices, including actual interest rates, Federal Reserve policies, and global economic conditions, suggesting that gold remains a valuable asset in times of monetary expansion and inflation [30][32][49]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Gold's Role in Monetary Systems - Gold has historically served as a fundamental currency, with its value linked to the issuance of paper money under the gold standard [7][8]. - The breakdown of the gold standard led to increased currency issuance without backing, resulting in currency devaluation and a long-term upward trend in gold prices [10][12]. Section 2: Economic Context and Gold Performance - The report highlights the weakening economic momentum in developed countries, with rising income inequality and an aging population impacting consumption and productivity [14][15][18]. - Gold has shown a strong performance over the past seven years, with a long-term annualized return of 8.3% since 1971, outperforming major stock indices [24][49]. Section 3: Investment Strategies and Misconceptions - The report outlines common misconceptions about gold investments, emphasizing its role as a hedge against currency devaluation rather than a traditional investment asset [46]. - It discusses the advantages of investing in gold ETFs, which provide a low-cost and accessible means for investors to gain exposure to gold [52][53]. Section 4: Future Outlook - The report anticipates a shift in monetary policy towards easing, which is expected to support gold prices as inflation expectations rise and real interest rates decline [32][42]. - The ongoing trend of central banks diversifying their reserves away from the US dollar towards gold is seen as a long-term bullish factor for gold [33][49].