Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed investment rating across various sectors, with 38% of stocks rated as Overweight, 46% as Equal-weight, and 16% as Underweight [12]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant volatility in global equity and fixed income markets, with the S&P 500 index dropping over 6% and Japan's Nikkei 225 index experiencing a 20% decline before recovering [2][3]. - The changing narrative around US economic growth is identified as a core factor driving market volatility, with recent employment data raising concerns about a potential hard landing [3][4]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook has shifted dramatically, with market expectations now pricing in over five rate cuts this year, compared to under two a month ago [3]. - The Bank of Japan's recent hawkish stance has contributed to global market fluctuations, indicating a divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and BoJ [5][6]. - In credit markets, the report suggests that recent weakness in spread products is justified, particularly in high-yield single B bonds, and recommends hedging against hard-landing risks [6]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 indices experienced significant declines in early August, with subsequent recoveries of about half of those losses [2]. - Market volatility remains elevated, with measures such as the VIX and MOVE indices reflecting ongoing uncertainty [2]. Economic Outlook - Economists maintain a base case for a resilient economy achieving a soft landing, expecting continued declines in inflation and three 25bp rate cuts in 2024 [4]. - Labor market data will be closely monitored, with a need for positive indicators to support the soft-landing thesis [4]. Monetary Policy - The Fed's path for monetary policy is under scrutiny, with a notable shift in market expectations regarding rate cuts following recent employment data [3][4]. - The BoJ's hawkish comments have led to a significant unwind of JPY carry trades, impacting global markets [5][6]. Credit Market Analysis - The report suggests that investors should consider hedges against hard-landing risks rather than liquidating cash portfolios, particularly in high-yield credit [6]. - Emerging market sovereign credit is expected to outperform high-yield credit, leading to a shift in preference [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a defensive stance and suggests staying with UST curve steepeners [1] Core Insights - Better-than-expected US data has improved global risk sentiment, reversing some repricing in central bank policies and exchange rates [1][5] - The upcoming US general election is expected to impact the US dollar, with a potential Republican victory likely to strengthen the dollar [1][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring US unemployment claims data as it approaches the reference period for the US establishment survey [5][11] Summary by Sections Interest Rate Strategy - In the US, the strategy includes maintaining UST 2s20s steepeners and re-entering September/November FOMC OIS flatteners [1][30] - The report anticipates a 25bp rate cut by the Fed in September, with discussions around a potential 50bp cut [1][49] Currency & Foreign Exchange - The report expects the USD to strengthen if global growth risks become a focus, particularly related to Republican campaign policies [1][15] - It discusses the implications of upcoming central bank meetings in Sweden and Norway, predicting a cut from the Riksbank and a hold from Norges Bank [1][12] Global Macro Strategy - The report highlights the significance of the US general election polling and its potential impact on market dynamics [1][8] - It notes that the breadth of weakness across industries challenges optimism regarding the labor market, as indicated by the private payroll diffusion index [5][11] Short-Duration Strategy - The report discusses the recent decline in RRP balances and the implications for funding conditions in the money markets [1][182] - It suggests that the risk of reserve scarcity is low into year-end, with expectations for higher reserves [1][191] Market Positioning - The report recommends maintaining short CAD/JPY positions and highlights the potential for further JPY appreciation if US economic data weakens [1][94][157] - It also discusses the positioning of various currencies in response to global economic conditions, emphasizing the bearish outlook for EUR and CAD [1][181]

M Update China Equity Strategy | Asia Pacific August 8, 2024 09:00 PM GMT A-Share Sentiment Fell Sharply Amid Domestic and Global Uncertainty Market sentiment has dropped significantly amid rising global volatility and lackluster macro prints this week. YTD Northbound flow approaches negative, first time in history. We remain relatively cautious given uncertain policy implementation and volatile global macro backdrop. A-share investor sentiment dropped notably vs. prior week: Weighted and simple MSASI dropp ...

M Idea Japan Macro and Equity Strategy | Japan August 8, 2024 06:46 PM GMT Japan Equities and the Yen We update our JPY and equity views on the back of the recent market volatility. We also answer frequently asked questions from both fixed income and equity investors. Key Takeaways Incoming economic data may drive a further unwinding of JPY carry trades/FX- hedged activity from overseas equity investors. We retain a bullish JPY skew. We believe roughly 60% of JPY carry trades unwound, but acknowledge wide e ...

Morgan Stanley | RESEARCH August 6, 2024 11:54 PM GMT Japan Economics and Strategy | Asia Pacific Answering your questions on Japan macro developments The US growth scare coupled with a hawkish BoJ have contributed to high volatility in Japan's asset markets. We assess what recent volatility means for our views on Japan's macro and markets. We address key investor questions received over the past 48 hours. Key questions we are addressing in this report: 1) What is our read on the recent US data? 2) What is ...

Mol Augus China's 3D Journey | Asia Pacific How Fiscal Reforms Could Affect the Economy Beijing pledges to ease local government funding pressures with fiscal reforms. However, the proposed tax hikes could make reflation more challenging. We analyze the economic impact of different reform paths. The rise of 3D challenges has eroded local governments' ability to support growth... In China, local govt shoulders >85% of fiscal spending. However, resurgent secular 3D challenges (debt, demographics, deflation) f ...

Mol Augus Global Macro Strategy | North America The White House and the Dollar Policies proposed by the Republican presidential campaign would likely boost USD. A potential Republican administration may attempt to offset USD strength, but in the near term, we expect USD and the likelihood of a Republican White House to be positively correlated. We expect the US dollar to gain if the Republican Party is increasingly seen as likely to win the US presidency. While former President Trump has spoken against doll ...

Mord August 7, 2024 10:16 AM GM Japan Economics │ Japan Our Impression About BoJ Deputy Gov. Uchida's Speech BoJ Dep. Gov. Uchida stated that the bank would not raise its policy rates while financial and capital markets remained unstable in his speech on Aug 7. It is more important to note that he wanted to clarify that his stance was not inconsistent with the bank's existing policy decision process. Key Takeaways ■ Dep. Gov. Uchida stated that the bank would not raise its policy rates while financial and c ...

August 4, 2024 10:23 PM GMT M Idea China Economics | Asia Pacific Bull vs. Bear: Is Bad Data Good News Again? China's growth deceleration continued in July, raising the urgency of more easing. The Politburo has called for faster implementation of announced policies and suggested more might be coming. We expect continued reactive easing and a slight growth improvement in 2H, leaving FY24 GDP growth tracking at 4.6-4.7%. To bring you a variety of perspectives, we have picked several charts that consider both ...

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