August 9, 2024 11:24 PM GMT Risk Reversals Better-than-expected US data saved global risk markets from a continued deleveraging.The rebound in risk sentiment reversed some of the repricing in central bank policies, yield curves, and exchange rates, but not all. We continue to advise a defensive stance and staying with UST curve steepeners. Global Macro Strategy We discuss the next few weeks and events on which investors should focus. We also discuss the implications of the US general election on the US doll ...

M Update China Equity Strategy | Asia Pacific August 8, 2024 09:00 PM GMT A-Share Sentiment Fell Sharply Amid Domestic and Global Uncertainty Market sentiment has dropped significantly amid rising global volatility and lackluster macro prints this week. YTD Northbound flow approaches negative, first time in history. We remain relatively cautious given uncertain policy implementation and volatile global macro backdrop. A-share investor sentiment dropped notably vs. prior week: Weighted and simple MSASI dropp ...

M Idea Japan Macro and Equity Strategy | Japan August 8, 2024 06:46 PM GMT Japan Equities and the Yen We update our JPY and equity views on the back of the recent market volatility. We also answer frequently asked questions from both fixed income and equity investors. Key Takeaways Incoming economic data may drive a further unwinding of JPY carry trades/FX- hedged activity from overseas equity investors. We retain a bullish JPY skew. We believe roughly 60% of JPY carry trades unwound, but acknowledge wide e ...

Morgan Stanley | RESEARCH August 6, 2024 11:54 PM GMT Japan Economics and Strategy | Asia Pacific Answering your questions on Japan macro developments The US growth scare coupled with a hawkish BoJ have contributed to high volatility in Japan's asset markets. We assess what recent volatility means for our views on Japan's macro and markets. We address key investor questions received over the past 48 hours. Key questions we are addressing in this report: 1) What is our read on the recent US data? 2) What is ...

Mol Augus China's 3D Journey | Asia Pacific How Fiscal Reforms Could Affect the Economy Beijing pledges to ease local government funding pressures with fiscal reforms. However, the proposed tax hikes could make reflation more challenging. We analyze the economic impact of different reform paths. The rise of 3D challenges has eroded local governments' ability to support growth... In China, local govt shoulders >85% of fiscal spending. However, resurgent secular 3D challenges (debt, demographics, deflation) f ...

Mol Augus Global Macro Strategy | North America The White House and the Dollar Policies proposed by the Republican presidential campaign would likely boost USD. A potential Republican administration may attempt to offset USD strength, but in the near term, we expect USD and the likelihood of a Republican White House to be positively correlated. We expect the US dollar to gain if the Republican Party is increasingly seen as likely to win the US presidency. While former President Trump has spoken against doll ...

Mord August 7, 2024 10:16 AM GM Japan Economics │ Japan Our Impression About BoJ Deputy Gov. Uchida's Speech BoJ Dep. Gov. Uchida stated that the bank would not raise its policy rates while financial and capital markets remained unstable in his speech on Aug 7. It is more important to note that he wanted to clarify that his stance was not inconsistent with the bank's existing policy decision process. Key Takeaways ■ Dep. Gov. Uchida stated that the bank would not raise its policy rates while financial and c ...

August 4, 2024 10:23 PM GMT M Idea China Economics | Asia Pacific Bull vs. Bear: Is Bad Data Good News Again? China's growth deceleration continued in July, raising the urgency of more easing. The Politburo has called for faster implementation of announced policies and suggested more might be coming. We expect continued reactive easing and a slight growth improvement in 2H, leaving FY24 GDP growth tracking at 4.6-4.7%. To bring you a variety of perspectives, we have picked several charts that consider both ...

M | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

M August 8, 2024 05:35 PM GMT Global Macro Strategy | North America US Rate Volatility Screener We analyze price action in US interest rate volatility markets, particularly in OTC (vanilla, curve, and forward vol) and CBOT options. Data are as of August 7, 2024. Key Takeaways The vol surface was higher, led by upper left products Both expiry and tail term structures flattened Curve vol was higher, and continues to screen rich on an I/R basis Forward vol was mixed, and looks cheap vs. midcurves and vanilla v ...