key takeways Q1：7 月下旬的 zzj 会议对中国经济政策会有何影响？ 预计 7 月下旬召开的 zzj 会议将维持温和观察的基调，不会出台明确的政策调整或刺激加 码措施。这主要是因为上半年中国 GDP 增速已达目标，预计累计增速达到 5.2%，略高于 zf5% 的目标。尽管名义 GDP 因通缩压力依然疲弱，但实际 GDP 达标使得短期内 zf 缺乏推出更多 政策转向的强烈动力。此外，上半年经济量增的原因包括抢出口和财政政策前置发力，这些 因素的影响力在下半年将有所减弱。真正的政策加码可能要等到秋季，届时第三季度数据 将更为明朗，若 GDP 增速回落到 4.5%以下，可能才会促成进一步的财政政策出台。 仅供内部交流学习使用，禁止转发 Q2：中美博弈如何体现在货币结算体系和稀土牌上？ 中美博弈已从经济、贸易和产业链竞争延伸到地缘政治层面，并体现在货币结算体系和稀土 牌上。中国担忧美元稳定币会强化美元在链上支付结算的霸权地位，因此对人民币稳定币更 感兴趣。中国推动稳定币主要着眼于跨境贸易结算，以减少对美元主导的 SWIFT 支付体系的 依赖。稀土作为战略资源，中国在全球供应中占据主导地位（稀土 88% ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Pop Mart International Group with a price target of HK$302.00, indicating a 17% upside from the current price of HK$258.80 [7]. Core Insights - Pop Mart's IP versatility and operational skills are expected to drive enduring growth, with sales projected to increase from US$3.6 billion in 2025 to US$6 billion in 2027, making it one of the fastest-growing global consumer brands [2][37]. - The market has likely priced in Pop Mart's growth for 2025, but there is potential for long-term scale that remains unaccounted for [3][42]. - The company's earnings estimates have been upgraded, with EPS projections increasing by 6% for 2025, 15% for 2026, and 21% for 2027, reflecting a clearer growth path in North America and Europe [4]. Summary by Sections Market Position and Growth Potential - Pop Mart's exponential growth in North America and Europe has exceeded expectations, driven by strong social media engagement and consumer enthusiasm [2][9]. - The total market for IP products is estimated to be significantly larger than the current figures, with Pop Mart expected to capture a 6-7% share among its peers by 2027 [44][45]. Financial Performance and Projections - The report projects Pop Mart's revenue to rise from US$0.9 billion in 2023 to US$6.0 billion in 2027, indicating a rapid growth trajectory [37]. - The company's net income is expected to reach Rmb7.3 billion, Rmb10.4 billion, and Rmb13.2 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, which is significantly higher than consensus estimates [58]. Competitive Landscape - Pop Mart is more vertically integrated than its peers, owning its IPs and operating a direct-to-consumer model, which enhances its profitability [48]. - The report highlights that Pop Mart's operational model allows for a higher operating profit margin compared to traditional licensing models used by competitors like Disney and Sanrio [48][84]. New Initiatives and Diversification - Pop Mart is expanding into new business areas such as theme parks (Pop Land) and fashion jewelry (POPOP), which are expected to contribute significantly to revenue in the long term [64][70]. - The company plans to leverage its IPs in these new ventures, aiming to create a comprehensive ecosystem that enhances brand visibility and consumer engagement [69][75].

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Summary of J.P. Morgan Global Emerging Markets Equity Research Call Industry Overview - **Emerging Markets (EM) Equity**: The report discusses the ongoing trends in emerging markets, highlighting significant outflows and market dynamics. Key Points 1. EM Equity Outflows - EM equity outflows continued for another week, totaling **-$4.3 billion**, following a record outflow of **-$6.6 billion** the previous week. This marks five consecutive weeks of redemptions, with a cumulative sell-off of **-$20.3 billion** [1][4][28]. - Asia ex-Japan funds accounted for the largest share of outflows at **-$2.7 billion**, down from **-$5.6 billion** the prior week [1][4]. - GEMs (Global Emerging Markets) funds experienced redemptions of **-$1.5 billion** [1][4]. - EMEA (Europe, the Middle East, and Africa) outflows widened to **-$116 million**, compared to **-$75 million** last week, while LatAm (Latin America) remained steady at **-$59 million** [1][4]. 2. Regional Fund Flows - **India** saw a rebound with inflows of **+$1.8 billion** after eight weeks of outflows totaling **-$13.4 billion** [2]. - **Taiwan** experienced worsened sell-offs, increasing to **-$2.5 billion** from **-$1.5 billion** [2]. - **Korea** outflows slowed to **-$534 million** from **-$640 million** [2]. - **South Africa** redemptions increased to **-$372 million** from **-$109 million**, while **Brazil** saw minimal outflows of **-$9 million** [2]. 3. Performance of EM Ex-China - EM ex-China turned positive this week with inflows of **+$122 million**, recovering from **-$49 million** [1][4]. - In October, China recorded strong inflows of **+$10.0 billion**, contrasting with outflows from Mexico (**-$343 million**) and Poland (**-$146 million**) [2][11]. 4. Year-to-Date (YTD) Flows - Year-to-date, EM equity flows stand at **-$23.8 billion** [1][4]. - EM ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) redemptions decelerated to **-$2.0 billion** from **-$4.2 billion**, while non-ETFs continued to see significant sell-offs at **-$2.3 billion** [1][4]. 5. Market Data and AUM - Total EM equity AUM (Assets Under Management) is reported at **$1,655.2 billion** [10]. - Developed Europe equity funds faced significant outflows of **-$3.6 billion**, while US equity funds saw inflows of **+$36.1 billion** [4][10]. 6. Analyst Insights - The report includes insights from various analysts, emphasizing the ongoing challenges and opportunities within the emerging markets landscape [3][9]. Additional Important Information - The report highlights the potential conflicts of interest due to J.P. Morgan's business relationships with covered companies, advising investors to consider this report as one of many factors in their investment decisions [7]. - The data presented is sourced from EPFR Global and MSCI, excluding onshore funds, which is crucial for understanding the context of the reported figures [12][17]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data from the J.P. Morgan Global Emerging Markets Equity Research call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of EM equities and regional fund flows.

Key Points Industry/Company Involved * **Morgan Stanley** - The document is a transcript of a Morgan Stanley macro strategy call discussing economic and market outlooks for 2025, focusing on China and the global economy. * **China** - The call primarily focuses on the Chinese economy, its policy direction, and the impact of external factors such as US-China trade relations. * **Automotive Industry** - A specific segment of the call discusses the outlook for the automotive industry, particularly focusing on electric vehicles (EVs) and the impact of technology and trade policies. Core Views and Arguments * **China Economic Outlook**: * **Persistent Deflation**: The call emphasizes the challenge of breaking deflation in China, with a focus on the need for sustained policy efforts over the next few years. * **Policy Shifts**: The document discusses recent policy shifts in China, including the 10 trillion yuan local government debt swap scheme and the potential for further stimulus measures. * **Second Wave of Policies**: The call suggests that a second wave of policies may be announced in the coming months, but it will likely be relatively modest in scale and focused on traditional sectors like infrastructure and energy. * **Third Wave of Policies**: The document mentions the possibility of a third wave of policies, which could involve more significant reforms and stimulus measures, particularly in areas like social security, housing, and population policies. * **US Economic Outlook**: * **Trade Tensions**: The call discusses the potential impact of US-China trade tensions, including the possibility of increased tariffs and its impact on global supply chains. * **US Policy Uncertainty**: The document highlights the uncertainty surrounding US policy under the new Republican administration, particularly regarding trade, fiscal policy, and immigration. * **US Debt Sustainability**: The call raises concerns about the sustainability of US debt and the potential for rising interest rates and inflation. * **Automotive Industry Outlook**: * **EV Growth**: The document predicts continued growth in the EV market, with a focus on hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles. * **Technology and Innovation**: The call emphasizes the importance of technology and innovation in the automotive industry, particularly in areas like smart driving and autonomous vehicles. * **Trade Policies**: The document discusses the potential impact of trade policies on the automotive industry, including the possibility of increased tariffs and supply chain disruptions. Other Important Points * **Market Sentiment**: The call discusses the importance of market sentiment and the potential for policy measures to boost confidence. * **Global Economic Outlook**: The document provides a brief overview of the global economic outlook, highlighting challenges and opportunities in various regions. * **Investment Implications**: The call offers some insights into potential investment implications based on the discussed economic and market outlooks.

China's Economic Policies and Debt Management - China plans a one-time Rmb6 trillion increase in local government special debt ceiling, with issuance spread evenly over 2024-26[19] - A Rmb10 trillion local government debt swap program is confirmed, aiming to restructure debt burdens among central and local governments, PBoC, and banks[19][22] - Beijing intends to increase the official deficit and expand the quota and usage of Local Government Special Bonds (LGSB) for 2025[19] US Tariff Impact on China - Scenario 1: 50%/60% targeted tariffs on China may have less impact than 2018-19, with a potential 1ppt GDP growth reduction, due to supply chain rewiring over the past 7 years[27] - Scenario 2: 50%/60% targeted tariffs on China plus 10% tariffs on the rest of the world could lead to higher deflation pressure and constrained export capacity[27] - China's export share in the US market has declined, but diversification to ASEAN and other regions has helped maintain a strong global export share[30][31] Sectoral Exposure to US Tariffs - Machinery and Electrical Equipment face a potential 50.9% incremental tariff, with 15.2% of China's exports going to the US[36] - Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles (e.g., toys, furniture) could see a 52.7% incremental tariff, with 27.4% of China's exports to the US[36] - Textiles face a 41.0% incremental tariff, with 15.7% of China's exports to the US[36] Reflation and Social Welfare Reforms - China's GDP deflator could rise to 2.0% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026 under an optimal case with a Rmb10 trillion fiscal stimulus[37] - Social welfare spending in China is significantly lower than the G7 average, with only 13% of GDP allocated to social security contributions[43][44] - Household saving rates in China remain high, driven by insufficient social safety nets, with rural residents and migrant workers showing higher saving rates[47][48] Housing Market and Urban Development - A 1 million unit urban village renovation program is announced, with Rmb0.8 trillion allocated for cash resettlement, aiming to reduce housing inventory[39][41] - Residential inventory in China remains elevated, with 6.1 million units under construction as of 2024[39]

Key Points Industry/Company Involved * **Morgan Stanley** - The document is a transcript of a Morgan Stanley macro strategy call discussing economic and market outlooks for 2025, focusing on China and the global economy. * **China** - The call primarily focuses on the Chinese economy, its policy direction, and the impact of external factors such as US-China trade relations. * **Automotive Industry** - A specific segment of the call discusses the outlook for the automotive industry, particularly focusing on electric vehicles (EVs) and the impact of technology and trade policies. Core Views and Arguments * **China Economic Outlook**: * **Persistent Deflation**: The call emphasizes the challenge of breaking deflation in China, with a focus on the need for sustained policy efforts over the next few years. * **Policy Shifts**: The document discusses recent policy shifts in China, including the 10 trillion yuan local government debt swap scheme and the potential for further stimulus measures. * **Second Wave of Policies**: The call suggests that a second wave of policies may be announced in the coming months, but it will likely be relatively modest in scale and focused on traditional sectors like infrastructure and energy. * **Third Wave of Policies**: The document mentions the possibility of a third wave of policies, which could involve more significant reforms and stimulus measures, particularly in areas like social security, housing, and population policies. * **US Economic Outlook**: * **Trade Tensions**: The call discusses the potential impact of US-China trade tensions, including the possibility of increased tariffs and its impact on global supply chains. * **US Fiscal Policy**: The document analyzes the potential impact of Trump's proposed fiscal policies, including tax cuts, tariffs, and immigration restrictions, and their potential risks for the US economy. * **Automotive Industry Outlook**: * **EV Growth**: The call predicts continued growth in the EV market, with a focus on hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles. * **Technology and Innovation**: The document highlights the importance of technology and innovation in the automotive industry, particularly in areas like smart driving and autonomous vehicles. * **Trade Policies**: The call discusses the potential impact of trade policies on the automotive industry, including the possibility of increased tariffs and its impact on global supply chains. Other Important Points * **Market Sentiment**: The call emphasizes the importance of market sentiment and confidence in the Chinese and global economies. * **Economic Growth**: The document discusses the potential for economic growth in China and the global economy, but also highlights the challenges and uncertainties that need to be addressed. * **Investment Opportunities**: The call provides insights into potential investment opportunities in various sectors, including the automotive industry and technology. References * [doc id='1'] * [doc id='2'] * [doc id='3'] * [doc id='4'] * [doc id='5'] * [doc id='6'] * [doc id='7'] * [doc id='8'] * [doc id='9'] * [doc id='10'] * [doc id='11'] * [doc id='12'] * [doc id='13'] * [doc id='14'] * [doc id='15'] * [doc id='16'] * [doc id='17'] * [doc id='18'] * [doc id='19'] * [doc id='20'] * [doc id='21'] * [doc id='22'] * [doc id='23'] * [doc id='24'] * [doc id='25'] * [doc id='26'] * [doc id='27'] * [doc id='28'] * [doc id='29'] * [doc id='30'] * [doc id='31'] * [doc id='32'] * [doc id='33'] * [doc id='34'] * [doc id='35'] * [doc id='36'] * [doc id='37'] * [doc id='38'] * [doc id='39'] * [doc id='40'] * [doc id='41'] * [doc id='42'] * [doc id='43'] * [doc id='44'] * [doc id='45'] * [doc id='46'] * [doc id='47'] * [doc id='48'] * [doc id='49']

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the technology sector, particularly focusing on hardware and semiconductors, indicating a cautious outlook as the industry approaches cyclical peaks [6][10][45]. Core Insights - The technology sector, excluding software, is facing significant cyclical risks as it approaches peak levels, particularly in semiconductors, with indicators suggesting a potential downturn in demand starting in the second half of 2024 [6][10]. - Key metrics indicate that semiconductor capital expenditures are expected to reach a historical high of $186 billion by 2025, while inventory levels have been rising since Q2 2024, signaling potential oversupply [10][18]. - Historical trends show that during previous downturns, the global tech index's forward price-to-book ratio compressed by an average of 35%, with earnings declining by 51% over four quarters [6][10]. Summary by Sections Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor revenue cycle is projected to peak in Q3 2024, with a consensus forecast indicating a significant slowdown in growth thereafter [10][18]. - The report highlights that the semiconductor sector typically experiences a downturn characterized by a 41% average decline in stock prices, with the average duration of downturns being around 11 months [10][22][73]. Investment Opportunities - Companies with strong free cash flow, relatively good earnings revisions, and undervalued forward price-to-earnings ratios are identified as potential outperformers during the upcoming downturn [10][12][24]. - The report suggests focusing on high-quality, defensive stocks that can withstand cyclical pressures, particularly in the semiconductor and hardware sectors [10][12][24]. Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry, where overproduction during boom periods often leads to significant corrections as demand normalizes [6][10][20]. - It notes that the current market sentiment is overly optimistic, with a potential shift expected as earnings growth begins to decelerate [10][20][21]. Sector Performance - Historical data indicates that during downturns, certain segments like personal computing semiconductors and commodity memory are most affected, while larger, high-quality firms tend to perform better [12][22][24]. - The report also discusses the importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio to mitigate risks associated with cyclical downturns in the technology sector [10][12][107].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an underweight rating on Consumer Cyclicals due to a shift towards non-discretionary spending among low and mid-income consumers [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a focus on labor markets as a key determinant for economic cycles, with expectations of a soft landing despite weak July data [6]. - There is an anticipated increase in corporate actions in the second half of 2024, driven by elevated cash levels and lower back-end rates, with buybacks projected to exceed $1 trillion [6]. - Mentions of "AI" are at all-time highs, indicating a strong trend towards efficiency and adoption in various sectors [51]. Summary by Sections Key Takeaways - Underweight stance on Consumer Cyclicals due to increased non-discretionary spending [6]. - Labor market dynamics are crucial for economic outlook, with a soft landing expected [6]. - Corporate actions, including M&A and buybacks, are projected to rise in 2H24 [6]. Corporate Mentions - Mentions of "Inflation" are stabilizing, indicating a shift in corporate focus [11]. - Hiring intentions are decreasing, while mentions of layoffs remain consistent [12]. - Corporate mentions of "Free Cash Flow" have reached an all-time high, reflecting a focus on capital allocation [23]. Industry Breakdown - The report provides a sector heat map indicating varying levels of cost pressures and pricing power across industries [29]. - Mentions of "Labor Shortage" and "Labor Costs" are significant, highlighting ongoing challenges in workforce management [38]. - The transportation costs are increasingly being discussed, reflecting concerns over freight and shipping expenses [72]. Trends and Themes - Key themes for 2024 include AI, longevity, and decarbonization, indicating a forward-looking approach to investment strategies [26]. - The report notes a mixed consumer outlook, with both strength and weakness being reported by companies [19]. - Pricing power remains a critical topic, with various sectors experiencing different levels of cost inflation and margin pressures [64][73].

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an **In-Line** rating for the technology sector, with specific sub-sectors such as **Greater China Technology Semiconductors**, **Electronic Components Japan**, and **IT Hardware** also rated as **In-Line** [1] - The **North America Semiconductors** sector is rated as **Attractive**, indicating a positive outlook for semiconductor companies in this region [1] Core Report Insights - The report highlights a median expectation of **37% Y/Y growth** for NVIDIA-related stocks and **14% Y/Y growth** for non-NVIDIA-related stocks in 2025 [1] - Global cloud capex is expected to grow **20-25% Y/Y** in 2025, significantly higher than the current tracker of **8% growth** [1] - The report introduces a **4 X 4 Matrix** to map out 16 scenarios for cloud capex growth, helping investors assess upside and downside risks for 46 covered stocks [1] Cloud Capex and AI Investment - The report emphasizes the importance of **AI cloud investment**, particularly in areas like **networking**, **CPU servers**, and **utilities**, as the technology landscape evolves [1] - NVIDIA-related capex is projected to grow **37% Y/Y** in 2025, driven by strong demand for AI infrastructure, while non-NVIDIA capex is expected to grow **14% Y/Y** [1] - The report identifies **Wiwynn** and **Advantest** as outliers with significant growth potential in the AI supply chain [1] Key Companies and Stock Implications - **TSMC** is expected to see tight supply for leading-edge foundry capacity in 2025, with potential price hikes for CoWoS capacity by **20%** [9] - **MediaTek** is expanding its partnership with Arm to develop server CPUs, positioning itself as a competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip market [10] - **Alchip** is projected to see **>50% Y/Y growth** in AWS project revenue, driven by 7nm projects [11] - **Aspeed** is highlighted as a key NVIDIA-related play, with its new AST2700 chip expected to gain traction due to its integration of the LTPI protocol [12] - **Dell Technologies** is positioned to benefit from AI server demand, with **50k HGX AI server builds** expected in 2024, potentially driving **$11B in AI server revenue** in FY25 [14] NVIDIA and Competitors - **NVIDIA** is expected to see **18% Y/Y growth** in datacenter revenue in 2025, driven by strong demand for its Blackwell and Rubin platforms [15] - **Broadcom** is projected to grow its AI exposure, with non-AI semis expected to rebound in late 2025 [16] - **Marvell** is seen as a beneficiary of AI growth but remains **Equal-Weight** due to valuation concerns [17] Networking and Infrastructure - **Cisco** is expected to benefit from networking growth, with a **$1bn FY25 AI order target** [19] - **Arista** is positioned to capture a growing portion of the AI networking opportunity, with an incremental **$5bn AI networking opportunity** by 2027 [21] - **Infinera** and **Ciena** are expected to benefit from increased inter-data center traffic, though growth is seen as a longer-term opportunity [22][20] European Data Center Growth - The European data center market is expected to grow **5x by 2035**, driven by increased cloudification and AI adoption [126] - Key investments include **AWS's $17bn investment** in Spain and **Microsoft's £2.5bn investment** in the UK [126] Conclusion - The report concludes that **cloud capex growth** in 2025 will be driven by both NVIDIA-related and non-NVIDIA-related investments, with significant upside potential for companies in the AI supply chain [1][33]