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Summary of China Equity Strategy Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China equity market** and the positioning of **foreign institutional investors** as of **1Q24**. Key Points 1. **Investor Positioning** - Foreign funds are less underweight in China equities, improving from **-2.6%** in **4Q23** to **-2.3%** in **1Q24**, but still below the **-2.1%** level seen in **3Q22** [2][3][7] - Approximately **25%** of active funds have no Chinese holdings, with **193 funds** holding **US$260 billion** in assets under management (AUM) not invested in China [3] 2. **Sector Performance** - Significant outflows from sectors such as **data centers**, **biotech**, **water utilities**, **wind power equipment**, and **automobiles** in **1Q24** [2][11] - Inflows were noted in **education**, **leisure**, **sportswear**, **express delivery**, and **internet sectors** [5][11] 3. **Market Inflows** - Northbound inflows into the A-share market resumed at **US$9.4 billion** in **1Q24**, contrasting with **US$8.3 billion** of outflows in **4Q23** [4][5] - Southbound trading showed **US$17 billion** in net inflows during **1Q24**, with daily averages of **HKD 4.2 billion**, indicating strong support for the Hong Kong market [4][5] 4. **Investor Preferences** - Active foreign institutional investors increased holdings in **education**, **leisure**, **sportswear**, **express delivery**, and **internet** sectors while reducing positions in **data centers**, **biotech**, and **automobiles** [5][11] - The sectors with the highest foreign active positions include **restaurants**, **education**, **consumer finance**, and **leisure** [5] 5. **Short Selling Trends** - Short selling turnover in Hong Kong declined to **15%** of total turnover, down from a peak of **20%** in late March [4][37] 6. **Valuation Risks** - Risks facing China's equities include potential hard landings in the property market, capital outflows due to currency depreciation, and slow structural reforms [38] Additional Insights - The report indicates that **193 funds** have previously cleared their China positions but have since re-entered the market, suggesting a cautious but potentially optimistic outlook for future investments [3] - The need for **US$4.3 billion** in purchases by certain funds to neutralize their underweight positions highlights the potential for increased investment in the Chinese equity market [3] This summary encapsulates the key findings and insights from the conference call regarding the current state and outlook of the China equity market, particularly focusing on foreign institutional investor behavior and sector performance.

Summary of Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The conference call pertains to Changjiang Securities Research Institute Core Points and Arguments - The call is exclusively for whitelist clients of Changjiang Securities Research Institute, and any unauthorized disclosure or reproduction of the content is prohibited [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - Changjiang Securities reserves the right to pursue legal action against any individual or organization that violates the confidentiality of the call [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Global Markets Strategy** with a focus on **equities**, **credit**, **commodities**, and **bitcoin**. Core Insights and Arguments Market Conditions - The **2-year UST yield** has risen from **4.2% in January** to **4.9% currently**, similar to levels seen last August, which may trigger a repeat of the "high for long" narrative that negatively impacted risk assets previously [6][24]. - Investors entered April with **elevated exposures** to risk assets compared to last August, indicating a potential risk of market correction [7][24]. Equity Market Dynamics - The implied equity allocation by non-bank investors reached its highest level since **2007**, suggesting a peak in equity allocations [8]. - Tactical investors, such as hedge funds, began April with higher equity exposures than seen at the beginning of last August, resembling conditions at the end of **2021** [10]. - The **short interest** in SPY and QQQ ETFs is at a record low, indicating minimal protection in US equities, particularly in tech stocks [10]. Credit Market Insights - There is a notable risk in the **high-grade (HG) corporate bond** market, as investors have been piling into these bonds to avoid negative carry from government bonds [21]. - The bond betas for US HG credit are significantly above historical averages, suggesting vulnerability compared to Euro HG credit [21]. Commodity Market Analysis - Oil prices have increased nearly **25%** since December 2023, raising questions about positioning and liquidity conditions in the oil market [25]. - Momentum signals for oil futures are currently long but not at extreme levels, indicating a balanced market [34]. - Speculative positions in commodities are modestly above long-run averages, with gold positions appearing elevated [31]. Bitcoin Market Outlook - The upcoming **bitcoin halving** event is expected to reduce issuance rewards for miners, potentially leading to a drop in hashrate and consolidation among miners [41]. - There is skepticism regarding price increases post-halving, with expectations of downside due to overbought conditions and subdued crypto VC funding [44]. Additional Important Insights - **Liquidity conditions** in bond markets have shown improvement but have deteriorated since early April, particularly affecting government bonds [36]. - The **Hui-Heubel liquidity ratio** indicates that liquidity conditions for Brent futures have normalized to pre-pandemic levels, although some deterioration has been noted recently [34]. - The **retail investor sentiment** has shown strong impulse into equities, raising the risk of a retrenchment [18]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current market dynamics across various sectors and potential risks and opportunities for investors.

J P M O R G A N Global Commodities Research 17 April 2024 Oil Demand Tracker Global flight activity surpasses pre-pandemic levels for the first time ever • Our high-frequency demand indicators estimate that worldwide oil Global Commodities Research consumption so far in April averaged 101.0 mbd, 200 kbd below our published Prateek Kedia AC estimates (Figure 1). On a year-over-year basis, demand growth in April is (1-646) 326 1124 tracking at 1.46 mbd against our expectations of a 1.7 mbd increase. From the ...

ab Global Research and Evidence Lab 19 April 2024 Global Rates Strategy Interest Rates Rates Map: Pricing risk of US "no landing" Europe including UK Emmanouil Karimalis Strategist ˜ Market's increasing confidence about a "no landing" scenario for the US emmanouil.karimalis@ubs.com +44-20-7567 8000 economy, coupled with the ECB's readiness to cut rates in June, suggests that the divergence between US and EUR rates is likely to persist for longer. Reinout De Bock Strategist ˜ While the current market pricing ...

ab Global Research and Evidence Lab 15 April 2024 Global Strategy Global Strategy Global leveraged loans look set to outperform Global despite fundamental concerns as rate cuts get James Martin Strategist pushed out james.martin@ubs.com +1-212-713 7960 Matthew Mish, CFA Strategist Summary of Key Takeaways: matthew.mish@ubs.com ˜ US and European Leveraged Loans are outperforming other credit classes this year, +1-203-719 1242 but valuations still look attractive versus HY counterparts Julien Conzano Strategi ...

ab Global Research and Evidence Lab 19 April 2024 US Equity Strategy Equity Strategy Earnings Brief 1Q24: Apr 19 Americas Jonathan Golub Strategist YTD, the price of oil has risen 15%. Over the same period, 1Q estimates for Energy jonathan.golub@ubs.com +1-212-713 8673 stocks have fallen -14%. Against this backdrop, we see the potential for positive surprises for the group. Patrick Palfrey Strategist patrick.palfrey@ubs.com 14.1% of the S&P 500's market cap has reported. 1Q expectations are for revenues to ...

Summary of Morgan Stanley Research Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the Asia and Emerging Markets (EM) equity strategy, focusing on macroeconomic conditions, sector performance, and geopolitical influences affecting the markets. Key Points and Arguments Market Views - Japan and India are highlighted as top picks in developed and emerging markets, respectively, with overweight positions on Mexico, Poland, Greece, and Singapore [1][1][1] Sector and Style Views - Favorable outlook on Semiconductors/Equipment due to the AI boom and hardware recovery, alongside Industrials in India and Mexico. A momentum reversal is noted [1][1][1] Key Themes - Interest in AI Enablers and Adopters, Japanese Corporate Reform, and select opportunities in China and Korea [1][1][1] Flows and Positioning - Recent outflows observed in EM and China markets [1][1][1] Economic Outlook - Asia/EM equities are experiencing a short-term correction due to a stronger US growth outlook and bullish USD trends. Japan and Taiwan are well-positioned for US revenue exposure, while markets like Australia, Brazil, and Indonesia have deteriorated [1][1][1] Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical risks are emphasized, particularly in the context of a transition to a multipolar world, affecting sectors like Aerospace and Defense [1][1][1] US Economic Forecast - The US GDP forecast for 2024 is revised to 2.3%, up from 1.6% previously, with an unemployment rate forecast of 4.2% [6][7][7] - Core PCE inflation is expected to decrease to 2.6% by Q4 2024 [7][7][7] Interest Rate Projections - The first rate cut by the Fed is now expected in July 2024, with further cuts anticipated in November and December [7][7][7] - Asia-ex-China central banks are expected to follow a later and shallower rate-cutting cycle [8][8][8] Performance of High US Revenue Exposure Stocks - Stocks with high US revenue exposure in Asia/EM have outperformed broader indices, benefiting from a stronger US economy [12][12][12] Sector Performance - Financials in the Asia Pacific have outperformed due to higher rates, while Real Estate is expected to underperform if rates remain elevated [22][22][22] Emerging Market Dynamics - The Indian market is viewed as resilient, with a strong corporate capex cycle and demographic advantages supporting continued growth [39][39][39] Aerospace and Defense Sector - The Asia Pacific Aerospace & Defense companies have outperformed the broader market by 206% since January 2014, driven by geopolitical tensions and increased defense spending [31][31][31] Korean Political Landscape - The recent elections in Korea have resulted in a strong majority for the opposition, which may complicate corporate reforms and legislative approvals [35][35][35] Investment Recommendations - Recommendations include focusing on IT and AI themes in Korea, and maintaining an overweight stance on India due to its strong earnings cycle and demographic trends [39][39][39] Other Important Content - The report includes various exhibits detailing market correlations, performance metrics, and forecasts for different indices, emphasizing the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators and geopolitical developments [1][1][1][22][22][22]

Summary of Key Points from Morgan Stanley Research on Chinese Growth/Tech Sector Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese Growth/Tech sector, analyzing fund flows, short interest, and market dynamics as of April 2024 [2][3][4][9][11]. Core Insights Fund Flows - Active long-only managers resumed net selling in the Chinese Growth/Tech segment from March to April, with estimated weekly outflows of approximately US$0.59 billion in April, a 24% increase compared to March [3][4]. - Large-cap stocks such as Tencent, Pinduoduo, Alibaba, and Meituan experienced significant outflows, while NetEase was the only large-cap stock to see net inflows during this period [3][4]. - Passive funds also contributed to the selling pressure in March and April, further impacting market liquidity [3][4]. Short Interest - Hedge funds have been covering shorts in the Chinese market, particularly in the Growth/Tech segment, indicating a shift in strategy rather than a bullish outlook [4]. - Stocks like Tencent, BYD, JD.com, and NIO saw the most short positions covered, while new shorts were added to Pinduoduo, Li Auto, KE Holdings, and Alibaba Health [4][11]. Market Performance - The performance of the most and least shorted stocks in China remained largely in line, suggesting that hedge funds are engaged in a de-grossing process rather than expressing a strong bullish sentiment [4]. Additional Important Insights - The dynamics of fund flows indicate a cautious approach among investors, with a focus on defensiveness in their China exposure [3]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring trading liquidity as passive fund selling adds headwinds to the market microstructure [3][4]. - The data presented is based on various sources, including EPFR and IHS Markit, providing a comprehensive view of the current market landscape [3][4][9]. Conclusion - The Chinese Growth/Tech sector is currently facing challenges with net selling from active managers and passive fund outflows, while hedge funds are adjusting their short positions. The overall sentiment appears cautious, with a focus on risk management rather than aggressive investment strategies.