ab Global Research and Evidence Lab 17 April 2024 APAC Economic Perspectives Economics ASEAN: Oil, the Fed, and central bank reaction Asia functions Grace Lim Economist grace-k.lim@ubs.com +65-6495 5965 Risks to inflation and US rate cuts imply bar to easing is higher Rohit Arora Events of the past few weeks have significant implications for ASEAN central bank Strategist reaction functions. Given a resilient US economy and sticky inflation, the Fed is unlikely rohit-b.arora@ubs.com +65-6495 5232 to cut in a ...

全世界都在增持美国资产 Franklin Templeton 2024 年 04 月 23 日 注：2000 年代起，随着美国股市的熊市和中国的崛起，美国私营部门在海外进行了大 量投资。这让美国成为全球私营部门的一个相当大的净债权国。然而，过去的 10 年， 随着美国经历经济和资本市场的表现，同时中国经济模式的转变和欧洲的主权和银行 双重危机，降低了这两个地区的增长预期。美国私营部门资本不断流入，成为超配。 然而，在美国资产持有比例超配的情况下，如果有任何失望的结果，就会有大量资金 退出美国市场。 正文： 2000 年代起，随着美国股市的熊市和中国的崛起，美国私营部门在海外进行了大量投 资，以利用更具吸引力的投资机会。随着时间的推移，这一趋势导致美国净收入余额 大幅改善，即美国海外投资收入减去向外国投资者支付的美国资产之间的差额（见图 表1）。 尽管美国总体上仍然是世界的净债务国，因为外国央行仍持有大量美国国债，但它已 成为全球私营部门的一个相当大的净债权国。有必要了解未来的资本流动和市场影响， 重要的是私营部门实体的决定。到2012年，私营部门对美元持有相当大的空头头寸。 图表1：美国净收入余额 ...

Amphenol Corporation (APH) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Amphenol Corporation (NYSE: APH) - **Date of Call**: April 24, 2024 - **Participants**: Craig Lampo (CFO), Adam Norwitt (CEO) Key Financial Highlights - **Sales**: $3,256 million, up 9% in U.S. dollars, 10% in local currencies, and 6% organically compared to Q1 2023 [5][6] - **Orders**: $3,348 million, up 16% year-over-year and 66% sequentially, resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.03:1 [6][15] - **Adjusted Diluted EPS**: $0.80, a 16% increase from $0.69 in Q1 2023 [9] - **Operating Income**: $685 million with an operating margin of 21%, up 110 basis points year-over-year [6][9] - **Free Cash Flow**: $506 million, representing 101% of adjusted net income [9] - **Total Debt**: $4.3 billion, with net debt at $2.3 billion [10] Segment Performance - **Harsh Environment Solutions**: Sales of $916 million, up 7% in U.S. dollars [8] - **Communications Solutions**: Sales of $1,266 million, up 12% in U.S. dollars [8] - **Interconnect and Sensor Systems**: Sales of $1,075 million, up 8% in U.S. dollars [8] Market Trends and Insights - **Defense Market**: Sales grew 13% year-over-year, representing 11% of total sales [20] - **Commercial Aerospace**: Sales increased 20%, driven by demand for jetliners [21] - **Industrial Market**: Sales declined 1% year-over-year, with a focus on high-technology products [22][24] - **Automotive Market**: Sales grew 18%, driven by electric and hybrid vehicle applications [24][25] - **Mobile Devices**: Sales were flat year-over-year, with a significant sequential decline of 29% [26] - **IT Datacom**: Sales grew 29%, driven by demand for AI-related products [29][30] Acquisition Plans - **Carlisle Interconnect Technologies (CIT)**: Amphenol plans to acquire CIT for $2 billion, expected to close by the end of Q2 2024. CIT is anticipated to add approximately $0.02 to earnings in the second half of 2024 [17][18][12] Capital Allocation Strategy - **Stock Repurchase Program**: A new $2 billion three-year stock repurchase plan has been approved [10][16] - **M&A Activity**: The company remains active in pursuing acquisitions, with a strong pipeline and a disciplined approach [63][64] Guidance for Q2 2024 - **Sales Guidance**: Expected in the range of $3.24 billion to $3.30 billion, representing 6% to 8% growth year-over-year [32] - **Adjusted Diluted EPS Guidance**: Expected in the range of $0.79 to $0.81, representing 10% to 13% growth year-over-year [32] Additional Insights - **AI Market**: Amphenol is well-positioned in the AI infrastructure market, with significant growth driven by high-speed interconnect products [30][39] - **Competitive Landscape**: The company maintains a strong position in high-speed interconnect technology, with ongoing investments in capacity and capabilities [76][78] This summary encapsulates the key points from the Amphenol Corporation Q1 2024 earnings call, highlighting financial performance, market trends, acquisition strategies, and future guidance.