Summary of Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the current market conditions and investment strategies, with a focus on various industries such as real estate, precious metals, machinery, public utilities, and pharmaceuticals. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Position and Sentiment** - The market sentiment has shifted from a bullish outlook to a defensive stance since March 20, 2024, with a notable market adjustment in April and a subsequent rebound in early May due to policy changes [2][3][4]. 2. **Policy Changes and Market Reactions** - The shift from a "toothpaste" policy to a more proactive approach, including announcements of interest rate cuts and real estate policy adjustments, has contributed to a rebound in market confidence [5][6]. 3. **Real Estate Risks** - New home prices continued to decline in April, indicating ongoing risks in the real estate sector. The focus should be on stabilizing prices rather than increasing sales volume [7][8]. 4. **Economic Indicators** - The PMI data shows significant declines in both order and production metrics, suggesting continued economic weakness and potential further declines in M1 [13][14]. 5. **Market Bottom and Recovery Timeline** - The market bottom is expected to be reached around August 2024, based on historical policy transmission cycles, with a focus on credit indicators and economic recovery [12][16]. 6. **Investment Opportunities** - Key sectors identified for potential investment include: - **Precious Metals**: Benefiting from rising prices and improving cash flow [21][27]. - **Engineering Machinery**: Showing signs of recovery and price increases [21][22]. - **Public Utilities**: The only sector currently meeting the criteria for active replenishment [22]. - **Pharmaceuticals**: Specifically in chemical pharmaceuticals and medical devices, which are expected to perform well [23]. 7. **Risks in Technology and Electronics** - The semiconductor and electronics sectors face significant risks due to over-expansion and high capital expenditures, leading to potential inventory issues [24][25]. 8. **Market Adjustments and Predictions** - The market is expected to undergo further adjustments, with potential declines of 10% to 20% based on historical patterns [18][19]. 9. **Global Economic Context** - The discussion highlights the impact of global liquidity conditions, particularly the effects of U.S. monetary policy on markets, including the potential for a liquidity trap as the U.S. begins to lower interest rates [29][36]. 10. **Investment Strategy Recommendations** - A diversified approach is suggested, with banks as a foundational investment, and a focus on gold and pharmaceuticals for growth opportunities [31][32]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The importance of cash flow and asset turnover as leading indicators for assessing industry recovery [20]. - The need for comprehensive policies to address ongoing economic risks and support market recovery [10][11]. - The distinction between relative and absolute returns in the context of market conditions, particularly for Hong Kong stocks compared to A-shares [36][39].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Global Equity Markets**: Experienced a decline of -0.4% last week after a previous rally of 7.0% over four weeks. The US market remained flat at 0.0%, while China saw a retreat of -4.7% after a 29% increase over four months [2][8]. - **Semiconductors Sector**: This sector was a standout performer, rallying 7.4% last week, driven by strong earnings from NVIDIA [2][15][20]. Core Insights - **Earnings Revision Ratio**: The Global Earnings Revision Ratio improved from 0.82 to 0.99, marking the highest level in 29 months. Europe leads with a ratio of 1.16, while China improved from 0.41 to 0.86 [3][42][56]. - **Sector Performance**: The Media & Entertainment sector had the highest earnings revision ratio at 1.56, while Consumer Staples lagged at 0.81 [3][46]. - **Triple Momentum**: Positive momentum was noted in Financials, particularly in Banks, Diversified Financials, and Insurance, while Utilities and Telecom showed weaker performance [4][31]. Additional Important Information - **Market Breadth**: Only 33% of stocks outperformed the index last week, indicating a narrow market performance [25][26]. - **Style Performance**: Momentum was the best-performing style last week, while Growth led year-to-date performance [31][33][39]. - **Job Market**: US initial jobless claims decreased by 8,000 to 215,000, indicating a tightening labor market [94]. - **Commodities**: Natural Gas saw the largest decline last week, while Crude Oil experienced the most significant drop month-to-date [102][104]. Conclusion The conference call highlighted a mixed performance across global equity markets, with notable strength in the semiconductor sector and improvements in earnings revision ratios. The financial sector showed positive momentum, while broader market breadth remains a concern. The labor market indicators suggest stability, and commodity trends indicate volatility in energy prices.

Ac更ces多sib资le v料ers加ion入 知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 North American Precious Metals Weekly Global MM&S Conference: Intriguing precious metal slides. Spotlight on India. Price Objective Change Intriguing slides related to themes from our Conference 2 7 May 2024 Corrected On May 14-15, we held our 41st annual Global Metals, Mining & Steel (MM&S) Equity Conference, in Miami, FL. The conference hosted nearly 300 fund managers and 85 Americas Gold & Precious Metals issuers, most represented by their CEOs. We select t ...

Summary of Japan Flow Update - FY23 Life Insurer Results Industry Overview - The report focuses on the life insurance industry in Japan, specifically analyzing the results of 11 major life insurers for FY23. Key Points and Arguments Investment Strategies - Life insurers reduced risk in H2 FY23 by decreasing holdings in Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) and foreign bonds, while also shortening the duration of their investments [1][2] - There was a net selling trend in superlong bond investments, with average duration slightly shortened [2][10] - Demand for FX-hedged and unhedged foreign bonds is expected to remain weak due to high hedging costs and a historically weak Japanese Yen (JPY) [2][24] Performance of Securities - Securities in general accounts showed a slight downturn, particularly in domestic and overseas bonds, with unrealized losses in domestic bonds continuing [1][8] - Unrealized profits in domestic equities reached a four-year high, while unrealized profits in foreign bonds improved for the first time in four quarters [1][8] Foreign Bond Investment - Life insurers reduced foreign bond investments while maintaining a broadly unchanged duration [19] - FX hedging ratios decreased from 45% at the end of September 2023 to 42% at the end of March 2024, marking the lowest level since March 2008 [24] Emerging Market (EM) Investments - EM currency assets increased to JPY 1.9 trillion at the end of FY23, driven by an increase in Singapore Dollar (SGD) assets, although this was limited to a single company [3][38] - Life insurers are likely to refrain from aggressive investments in EM assets as long as US yields remain elevated [40] Interest Rate Risk Management - Hedging of interest rate risk in response to new regulations is largely complete, with investments required to neutralize interest rate sensitivity decreasing significantly [33] - Life insurers have been net buyers of superlong bonds in preparation for new regulations set to launch in April 2025 [33] Market Outlook - Superlong bonds are considered relatively attractive and may see dip-buying if interest rate volatility cools [15] - The average assumed investment yield for life insurers is around 1.8%, with many targeting 2% in their FY24 investment plans [15] Currency and Hedging Trends - The utilization of JPY interest rate derivatives indicates a greater concern about rising yields among life insurers [17] - FX hedging ratios for USD and AUD fell, while rising for EUR, reflecting a shift in hedging strategies [24][25] Additional Important Insights - Life insurers have sold off MXN and PLN assets and reduced exposure to CNY, indicating a cautious approach towards certain EM currencies [39] - The overall investment stance of Japanese life insurers is shifting towards a higher concentration in USD-denominated assets [40] This comprehensive analysis highlights the cautious investment strategies of Japanese life insurers in response to market conditions, regulatory changes, and currency fluctuations, indicating a significant shift in their asset allocation and risk management approaches.

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 FICC Research Economics 30 May 2024 ECB Preview Every journey begins with a single CORE step We expect the ECB to start its easing cycle by cutting rates by European Economics 25bp. The updated inflation forecasts should validate the Mariano Cena decision by showing inflation sustainably at target by mid 2025. +44 (0) 20 7773 0727 mariano.cena@barclays.com The rates guidance should remain unchanged as it provides, for Barclays, UK now, enough flexibility to accommodate diverse e ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **US economy**, indicating a significant slowdown and potential contraction ahead. [2][5] Core Economic Insights - **Consumer Spending**: - Declined by **0.1% MoM** in April, with Q1 data revised to show a more dramatic decline in real goods spending. [2][5] - Real services spending slowed to **0.10% MoM** in April, indicating a weakening trend. [8] - Cyclically sensitive spending on restaurants has declined in four out of the last five months. [9] - **Inflation**: - Core PCE inflation slowed to **0.249% MoM** and **2.75% YoY** in April, which is still elevated but shows signs of easing. [15][27] - The slowdown in "supercore" nonshelter services to **0.26% MoM** is viewed positively by Fed officials. [15] - **Labor Market**: - A projected **140k new jobs** are expected in May, with an unemployment rate rising to **4.0%**. [15][18] - Job openings are expected to decline to **8.39 million**, reflecting a tightening labor market. [20][41] - Credit card delinquency rates are at their highest since 2007, indicating financial strain among consumers. [5][6] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a **25 basis point rate cut in July**, with a total of **200 basis points** of cuts anticipated through June 2025. [2][5] - Fed officials are likely to adjust their projections in June, potentially reducing the number of expected rate cuts for 2024 from three to two. [16] Consumer Confidence and Spending Trends - The **Conference Board consumer confidence index** rose to **102.0** in May, driven by improved expectations. [22] - The share of disposable income going to rent has increased, further straining consumer budgets. [6][8] Trade and Construction Insights - The goods trade balance is expected to widen to **-$76.2 billion**, which could negatively impact Q2 GDP. [45] - Construction spending is projected to decline slightly, reflecting weaker housing demand and rising mortgage rates. [53] Additional Observations - The report highlights a potential non-linear adjustment in the labor market, with firms possibly resorting to layoffs rather than just slowing hiring. [11][12] - The upcoming jobs report is critical, as it will influence Fed policy and market expectations. [17][18] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the US economy, consumer behavior, inflation trends, and the Federal Reserve's anticipated actions.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Retail Real Estate in Australia** [2] - **Consumer Finance in Thailand** [2] - **BYD (1211.HK/002594.SZ)** [6] - **Industries Qatar (IQCD.QA)** [6] - **Brazil Insurance Sector** [9] - **YDUQS (YDUQ3.SA)** [11] - **Domino's Pizza Inc. (DPZ.N)** [11] - **Aerospace & Defense (LMT and HII)** [11] Core Insights and Arguments Retail Real Estate in Australia - Retail real estate has shown resilience with improving occupancy rates and net operating income growth despite cautious investor sentiment due to high interest rates [2][2] - Retail real estate stocks are trading at historically high discounts to NTA and low P/E ratios, indicating potential value [2][2] - There is a disconnect between MAT growth (+14%) and book values (-12%) since 2018 [2][2] Consumer Finance in Thailand - The risk-reward for Thai non-bank financial companies (NBFCs) appears balanced, with modest NP growth expected in 2Q24E [2][2] - Title loan operators are favored due to recovering earnings, while unsecured operators face asset-quality pressures [2][2] BYD (1211.HK/002594.SZ) - Volume forecasts for FY24/25E have been raised to 3.85 million and 5.01 million respectively, reflecting strong sales momentum [6][6] - Gross profit margins are expected to improve, leading to an updated NP forecast of Rmb35.7 billion and Rmb51.7 billion for FY24/25E [6][6] - Target prices for H-share and A-share are set at HK$475.0 and Rmb437.0, respectively [6][6] Industries Qatar (IQCD.QA) - The company is viewed as an underappreciated growth story, particularly in its blue ammonia business, which is expected to contribute 20% of earnings by 2030 [6][6] - The market undervalues IQ compared to peers, with a DCF-based valuation of 13.7 QAR [6][6] Brazil Insurance Sector - The insurance sector in Brazil is improving, with a reacceleration of premiums and reduced expectations of losses from El Niño [9][9] - The competition in auto insurance remains well-behaved, and recent floods have had a manageable impact on most players [9][9] YDUQS (YDUQ3.SA) - The company is downgraded to Neutral due to expected topline slowdown and rising bad debt [11][11] - Earnings estimates for 2024/25 have been cut by 16%, with a new target price of R$14.0 per share [11][11] Domino's Pizza Inc. (DPZ.N) - The CFO expressed optimism about business momentum, driven by value promotions and product innovation [11][11] - The company is expected to benefit from increased traffic and rewards program engagement [11][11] Aerospace & Defense (LMT and HII) - Meetings with management indicated a positive outlook for DoD budgets and cash flow, supporting Buy ratings for both companies [11][11] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The retail real estate sector's fundamentals remain supportive despite investor caution [2][2] - The performance of title loan operators in Thailand is contrasted with unsecured operators facing challenges [2][2] - BYD's strong model cycle and sales momentum are critical to its revised forecasts [6][6] - The Brazilian insurance sector's recovery is contingent on weather-related risks and competitive dynamics [9][9] - YDUQS's downgrade reflects broader market conditions and internal challenges [11][11]

Downloaded from Capital IQ by Zoe Shi (zshi@generalatlantic.com) at General Atlantic Service Company, L.P. on Friday May 31 2024 09:16:30 AM, Sessionid:uz33kb2ioepo1sx3rps1zyy3 Ac更ces多sib资le v料ers加ion入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 The Flow Show Pain = Gain Scores on the Doors: crypto 51.4%, gold 13.1%, commod 9.1%, stocks 8.9%, oil 8.7%, 3 1 May 2024 US dollar 3.4%, cash 2.2%, HY bonds 1.8%, IG bonds -1.7%, govt bonds -5.6% YTD. Investment Strategy Global Tale of the Tape: political polarization, protectionism, wa ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The survey indicates that 59% of respondents expect to cut cloud spending, a significant increase from 32% in the previous year, while only 13% anticipate accelerating cloud growth at the expense of on-premise spending, down from 24% last year [87][88] - The average expected savings from public cloud optimization initiatives has increased from approximately 3% in 2023 to 8% in 2024 [88] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Optimization efforts are primarily focused on existing workloads, with 30% of respondents optimizing compute/storage costs for existing applications/services, while vendor consolidation is the second most common strategy [80][81] - Production workloads remain the primary target for optimization initiatives, with 84% of respondents focusing on them, and there is a notable increase in optimization efforts for test and development workloads, rising to 72% [89][93] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The survey shows that 59% of workloads are expected to reside in the public cloud long-term, an increase from 57% last year, indicating a positive trend in cloud adoption [99][101] - Microsoft Azure is projected to maintain a majority share, with its expected market share growing from 49% to 51% over the next three years, while Oracle OCI is expected to increase its share from 1% to 5% [100] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on cloud optimization initiatives, with 57% of respondents currently underway or completed, and 33% still planning, indicating a strategic shift towards enhancing cloud efficiency [64][68] - The long-term outlook for public cloud utilization remains positive, driven by AI, with expectations of double-digit growth through at least 2025 [99][101] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management notes that while cloud optimization efforts are ongoing, they are expected to continue into 2024, with a significant portion of respondents indicating that their initiatives are not yet complete [63][64] - The integration of AI into cloud workloads is anticipated to drive increased spending, with 12% of public cloud spending expected to be related to AI/ML in three years, up from 5% today [17][19] Other Important Information - The survey highlights a shift towards colocation services for better cost control, with a notable increase in interest compared to the previous year [30][110] - Data security is identified as a key investment area in preparation for AI/ML, with a majority of respondents planning to utilize a combination of public cloud services and third-party security solutions [52][60] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the expected impact of AI on cloud spending? - The survey indicates that AI is expected to account for 12% of public cloud spending in three years, up from 5% today, suggesting a significant increase in AI-related investments [17][19] Question: How are companies approaching cloud optimization? - Companies are primarily focusing on optimizing existing workloads, with 30% targeting compute/storage costs for current applications, while vendor consolidation is also a key strategy [80][81] Question: What are the long-term expectations for public cloud utilization? - Long-term expectations indicate that 59% of workloads are projected to reside in the public cloud, reflecting a positive trend in cloud adoption and utilization [99][101]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on CATL, Gotion, and EVE Energy, citing near-term catalysts of utilization recovery and earnings growth [6][16]. Core Insights - The China battery and components industry is expected to experience a sequential recovery, with battery utilization recovering from a low of 34% in Q1 2024 to 61% in May 2024, and further improving to 62% in June [2][4]. - Earnings growth is anticipated in the second half of 2024, driven by volume recovery and stabilized unit gross profit (GP), with forecasts of 5% YoY EPS growth for CATL, 20% for Gotion, and 6% for EVE Energy [4][17]. - The report highlights a decline in capital expenditures (CAPEX) across the battery segment, which is expected to lead to a supply-demand rebalancing in the battery supply chain [5][16]. Summary by Sections Battery Utilization and Earnings Growth - Battery utilization is projected to recover to 56% in 2024E, 58% in 2025E, and 61% in 2026E, marking 2024E as the trough of the current down cycle [2][4]. - The report forecasts top-line growth of 5% for CATL, 56% for Gotion, and 23% for EVE Energy in 2H24, alongside significant HoH EPS growth [4][17]. CAPEX and Supply Chain Dynamics - The battery segment has seen YoY CAPEX declines for four consecutive quarters, strengthening expectations for utilization recovery in 2024E [5][16]. - The report indicates that while components have outpaced batteries in CAPEX, a slower supply-demand rebalancing is expected, particularly in the components segment [5]. Stock Recommendations - The report maintains "Buy" ratings on CATL, Gotion, and EVE Energy, while recommending "Sell" on Tinci, Farasis, and Zhenhua due to vulnerabilities to overcapacity [6][16]. - Neutral ratings are given to Putailai and Dynanonic based on fair valuation [6].