高盛：美国每日报告6月FO会议纪要尽管点阵图趋于鹰派,但仍预计9月降息 ...

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12 June 2024 | 10:24PM KST South Korea Technology: Key takeaways from Hynix and SEMCO investor meetings | --- | --- | --- | |-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Goldman Economics Sachs Research 12 June 2024 I 2:39PM EDT USA: FOMC Median Projects One Cut in 2024, Revises Long-Run Dot Higher at its June meeting. The median dot in the Summary of Economic Projections now shows 25bp of cuts in 2024, down from 75bp in March. The median dot now shows 100bp of cuts in both 2025 and 2026 (vs. 75bp each in the March projections), keeping the cumulative amount of cuts across 2024-2026 unchanged at 225bp. The median dot for 2026 remained modestly a ...

Goldman Economics Sachs Research US Daily: June FOMC Recap: Sticking with a September Cut Despite a Hawkish Dot Plot (Mericle) The June dot plot delivered a hawkish surprise with a median projection of one Chair Powell emphasized in his press conference that many participants saw it as a very close call and that both options are still plausible outcomes.OThe market-implied probability of a cut by September rose from 59% this morning to a peak of 85% after the soft CPl report and thgn tell to 65% after the F ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要关注公众号：水木纪要 BARCLAYS Federal Reserve Commentar UPDATE: June FOMC preview: Eyeing only one cut The focus of the June FOMC meeting will center on the70 statement, SEP, and press conference. We expect the dot plot to show a median of one rate cut in 2024given upward revisions to inflation projections, and manydots indicating two cuts. Powell will likely stress this is not a promise, with the FOMC needing more confidence. 服数据加 UPDATE This publication is an update to 'Federal Reserve Commentary: ...

Industry Overview - The bicycle industry in China has evolved into a multi-functional carrier, integrating elements of environmental protection, social interaction, and fitness, with approximately 6 million cycling enthusiasts and over 3.4 million registered bicycle-related businesses [2] - China remains the largest producer and consumer of bicycles globally, with a market size of 1838.1 billion yuan and a projected global market value of 82.3 billion USD by 2027 [4][5] - The industry faces challenges such as slowing export growth, with a 39.8% decline in export volume in 2022 and ongoing dependency on imported core components [7][8] Market Trends - Cycling has become a popular sport, with over 100 million regular cyclists in China, and significant growth in cycling-related content on platforms like Douyin, with video views increasing by 94.4% and searches by 137.4% [3] - The electric-assist bicycle market is poised for explosive growth, with a projected global market size of 52.6 billion USD by 2028, driven by a 12% CAGR, although penetration in China remains below 1% [18][19] - Younger consumers, particularly those under 25, are driving demand for high-end bicycles and cycling gear, with a 387% increase in spending on road bikes and significant growth in cycling apparel and accessories [21] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly willing to invest in higher-priced bicycles, with a preference for models priced between 8,000 to 30,000 yuan, reflecting a trend towards budget and consumption upgrades [23] - The "cool and chic" cycling trend, characterized by urban, retro, and street-style fashion, is particularly popular among women aged 25-34 in first- and second-tier cities [25][26] Industry Challenges - The industry faces profitability challenges due to intense competition, with domestic manufacturers struggling to compete in the high-end market dominated by developed countries [29] - High buyer bargaining power and low supplier bargaining power are significant issues, with manufacturers needing to focus on differentiated operations and high-end product development to remain competitive [30][31] - International trade risks, including potential tariff changes and trade protectionism, pose threats to overseas sales and overall industry performance [32] Key Players and Innovations - Xidesheng, a leading bicycle manufacturer, has established itself as a global player with a focus on lightweight technology and high-end products, operating the largest carbon fiber manufacturing facility in China [27] - The industry is shifting towards electrification, with electric-assist bicycles expected to see increased production and higher value due to their advanced technology and higher price points [35]

Industry Overview - Electric scooters effectively meet the daily needs of short-distance travel, with an average commuting radius of no more than 15km in major countries [2][3] - The electric scooter market size reached 55 million units in 2023, with the top 10 brands accounting for 85% of total sales [6] - The industry is experiencing a trend towards high-end products, with major brands launching new models priced above 3000 RMB and focusing on intelligent features [17] Market Trends - The new national standard in 2024 is expected to drive demand, with stricter regulations and subsidies in provinces like Jiangsu, Jiangxi, and Shanxi [4][5] - The Southeast Asian market is becoming a preferred destination for electric scooter exports, with countries like Indonesia and Thailand showing rapid urbanization and supportive policies [22][23] - Shared electric scooters and instant delivery services are emerging as potential growth drivers, with the shared electric scooter market expected to reach 8 million units by 2025 [24][25] Competitive Landscape - Leading brands like Yadea and Aima have surpassed 10 million units in sales, with Yadea showing strong growth of 34% YoY in H1 2023 [12][13] - New players like Ninebot have outperformed Niu in sales, with a focus on channel expansion and intelligent features [12] - The industry is witnessing a clear Matthew effect, with top brands consolidating their market positions [12][14] Product Development - Long-range and intelligent features are key competitive factors, driving product upgrades and price increases [8] - Sodium batteries are emerging as a new area of competition, with brands like Yadea and Tailg investing in R&D and expected to launch mass-produced products in 2024 [26][27] - Yadea's high-end models, such as the Guan Neng series, have seen significant growth, accounting for 28% of total sales in 2023 [28][29] Challenges - The industry faces challenges such as contradictions between national standards and market demands, product homogenization, and consumer complaints [30][31][32] - The supply-demand imbalance for legitimate lithium batteries has led to risks of illegal modifications and substandard products [33] Future Outlook - The industry is moving towards high-quality, intelligent, and personalized development, with a focus on design, battery technology, and smart features [35][36][37][38] - Technological advancements in battery and motor systems are expected to address consumer concerns about range and charging [36]

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Goldman Economics Sachs Research 22 May 2024 I 4:24PM EDT USA: FOMC Meeting Minutes Display Range of Views on Inflation Outlook and Policy Risks 开报数据力 MAIN POINTS: Jan Hatzius Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 I alec.phillips@gs.com V Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Spencer Hill, CFA Goidman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 ...

就是说520跟618所以说大家的消费欲望会减低就会等到这个31号的晚上8点那么就是说因为520本身就会消耗一波所以说的话就是说直接把520这个销售纳入到618整体销售范围之内所以说它就提前了那么整体上的618表现的话相对来讲的话也是会比较好那么第三点的话其实就是整体上 比如说东方甄选交朋友其实这些平台已经这些商家已经入驻到淘宝了所以说他们想要把这个节奏往前拉一下运用这个直播这种形式把整体上618的销售再往上拱一下但是整体上销售的话可能实打实的讲其实不会有特别大的作用但是其实整体上对于他们的市场上的升量或者是对于 大家对于他们的关注度会增加所以说是有利于后面就是说大家再去做这个事的好的好的谢谢专家所以其实像您刚刚说的这个整个延长其实也是把两个其实都比较重要的这个时点去做了一个整合就希望有更好的营销和表现对 然后想稍微问一下就是说我记得以前像佳吉这样的超头主播的话在天猫的预售当中其实贡献应该是蛮大的因为我之前好像看过报道说有在预售中可能有半数左右的一个贡献然后想问一下就是这个预售取消从对超头主播这个角度来讲对他的这个销售会有什么样的一个影响吗这个影响的话其实是 没有特别大的影响因为这个他这个直播跟这个我们传统业务 ...