Summary of Conference Call on Power Semiconductor and MCU Market Industry Overview - The power semiconductor market is divided into three segments: low power, medium power, and high power. Low power includes diodes and rectifiers, medium power consists of MOSFETs, and high power includes IGBT modules and inverters [1][7]. Key Points on Power Semiconductor Market - **Low Power Devices**: Prices bottomed in Q3 2023 and began to rise due to surging demand in the consumer sector, particularly in smartphones. Prices for some components increased by approximately 10% last year [2]. - **Medium Power Devices**: Prices were at historical lows last year, with tentative price increases of 5-8% due to insufficient market orders [3]. - **High Power Devices**: Prices remain at mid-high levels, driven by unexpected demand from the electric vehicle (EV) sector. There are rumors of potential price increases, but they have not been confirmed [3][7]. Silicon Carbide (SiC) Market Dynamics - SiC is primarily used in EV applications such as inverters and chargers. The EV market grew by 35% in 2023, with expectations of 25-35% growth in 2024. Demand for SiC is projected to grow significantly, with Infineon predicting over 35% annual growth and STMicroelectronics forecasting over 40% [4][8]. MCU Market Analysis - The automotive MCU market is dominated by NXP, Renesas, and Infineon, holding over 70% of the global market share. Domestic MCUs can reach 75-80% of the performance of international brands but lag in ecosystem and supply chain [5][11]. - Domestic MCU manufacturers are focusing on new vehicle models for breakthroughs, as older models are harder to modify due to safety and stability concerns [12]. - Key considerations for automotive manufacturers when selecting MCU suppliers include performance, price, supply chain security, and overall supplier strength, especially in the context of US-China decoupling [13]. Inventory and Price Trends - Semiconductor inventory across various channels has returned to reasonable levels, except for slightly high original manufacturer inventory, which is expected to normalize in 3-4 months. Prices for power devices and MCUs have bottomed out in Q3 and Q4 2023, with future price increases remaining uncertain [6][14]. Future Price Trends and Market Outlook - Power semiconductor prices have seen a general increase since bottoming out last year, with a focus on supply-demand dynamics and orders, particularly in consumer sectors like home appliances and smartphones [15]. - The renewable energy market has consistently exceeded growth expectations, with a 40% increase in 2022 and 35% in 2023. However, high prices for automotive components may suppress orders [16]. - AI-related orders in consumer electronics have surged, with penetration rates doubling expectations, leading to strong demand for related components [17]. Market Share and Competitive Landscape - Domestic MCUs have over 50% market share in consumer electronics but less than 20% in industrial applications and under 5% in automotive [18]. - The domestic SiC market is still competitive with international giants like ST and Infineon, but companies like BYD are making significant progress due to their production capabilities [18]. Conclusion - The power semiconductor and MCU markets are experiencing dynamic changes driven by demand in the EV sector and consumer electronics. Price trends are influenced by inventory levels and market recovery, with significant growth potential in SiC applications and domestic MCU advancements.

高盛：美国每日报告6月FO会议纪要尽管点阵图趋于鹰派,但仍预计9月降息 ...

白色家电 行业简析报告 ...

12 June 2024 | 10:24PM KST South Korea Technology: Key takeaways from Hynix and SEMCO investor meetings | --- | --- | --- | |-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Goldman Economics Sachs Research 12 June 2024 I 2:39PM EDT USA: FOMC Median Projects One Cut in 2024, Revises Long-Run Dot Higher at its June meeting. The median dot in the Summary of Economic Projections now shows 25bp of cuts in 2024, down from 75bp in March. The median dot now shows 100bp of cuts in both 2025 and 2026 (vs. 75bp each in the March projections), keeping the cumulative amount of cuts across 2024-2026 unchanged at 225bp. The median dot for 2026 remained modestly a ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an expectation of a first rate cut in September 2024 and a second cut in December 2024, despite a hawkish surprise in the June dot plot [5][8]. Core Insights - The June dot plot revealed a median projection of one cut in 2024, contrary to the two cuts anticipated by the consensus. The market-implied probability of a cut by September increased from 59% to a peak of 85% after a soft CPI report, before settling at 65% post-FOMC meeting [5][9]. - Chair Powell indicated that the decision between one cut and two this year is a close call, emphasizing that these projections are not definitive plans [5][11]. - The report suggests that if upcoming inflation data aligns with recent trends, the Fed leadership is likely to proceed with a rate cut in September [8][9]. Summary by Sections FOMC Meeting Insights - The FOMC noted "modest" progress towards the 2% inflation target, with inflation having decreased from a peak of 7% to 2.7% [9][11]. - The report highlights that labor market data would need to worsen significantly to support a case for a cut, following recent upticks in unemployment projections [11]. Inflation Forecasts - The updated core PCE inflation forecast for Q4 2024 is set at 2.7%, slightly below the FOMC's forecast of 2.8% [8][9]. - The report anticipates a sequential increase in core PCE inflation in June, followed by softer reports in July and August due to seasonal effects [8][9]. Market Reactions - The market's reaction to the one cut median was viewed as a hawkish surprise, yet it does not eliminate the possibility of a September cut [5][9]. - The report indicates that the Fed's leadership is likely to act on inflation data, with the next three rounds of data being crucial for decision-making [8][9].

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要关注公众号：水木纪要 BARCLAYS Federal Reserve Commentar UPDATE: June FOMC preview: Eyeing only one cut The focus of the June FOMC meeting will center on the70 statement, SEP, and press conference. We expect the dot plot to show a median of one rate cut in 2024given upward revisions to inflation projections, and manydots indicating two cuts. Powell will likely stress this is not a promise, with the FOMC needing more confidence. 服数据加 UPDATE This publication is an update to 'Federal Reserve Commentary: ...

Industry Overview - The bicycle industry in China has evolved into a multi-functional carrier, integrating elements of environmental protection, social interaction, and fitness, with approximately 6 million cycling enthusiasts and over 3.4 million registered bicycle-related businesses [2] - China remains the largest producer and consumer of bicycles globally, with a market size of 1838.1 billion yuan and a projected global market value of 82.3 billion USD by 2027 [4][5] - The industry faces challenges such as slowing export growth, with a 39.8% decline in export volume in 2022 and ongoing dependency on imported core components [7][8] Market Trends - Cycling has become a popular sport, with over 100 million regular cyclists in China, and significant growth in cycling-related content on platforms like Douyin, with video views increasing by 94.4% and searches by 137.4% [3] - The electric-assist bicycle market is poised for explosive growth, with a projected global market size of 52.6 billion USD by 2028, driven by a 12% CAGR, although penetration in China remains below 1% [18][19] - Younger consumers, particularly those under 25, are driving demand for high-end bicycles and cycling gear, with a 387% increase in spending on road bikes and significant growth in cycling apparel and accessories [21] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly willing to invest in higher-priced bicycles, with a preference for models priced between 8,000 to 30,000 yuan, reflecting a trend towards budget and consumption upgrades [23] - The "cool and chic" cycling trend, characterized by urban, retro, and street-style fashion, is particularly popular among women aged 25-34 in first- and second-tier cities [25][26] Industry Challenges - The industry faces profitability challenges due to intense competition, with domestic manufacturers struggling to compete in the high-end market dominated by developed countries [29] - High buyer bargaining power and low supplier bargaining power are significant issues, with manufacturers needing to focus on differentiated operations and high-end product development to remain competitive [30][31] - International trade risks, including potential tariff changes and trade protectionism, pose threats to overseas sales and overall industry performance [32] Key Players and Innovations - Xidesheng, a leading bicycle manufacturer, has established itself as a global player with a focus on lightweight technology and high-end products, operating the largest carbon fiber manufacturing facility in China [27] - The industry is shifting towards electrification, with electric-assist bicycles expected to see increased production and higher value due to their advanced technology and higher price points [35]

Industry Overview - Electric scooters effectively meet the daily needs of short-distance travel, with an average commuting radius of no more than 15km in major countries [2][3] - The electric scooter market size reached 55 million units in 2023, with the top 10 brands accounting for 85% of total sales [6] - The industry is experiencing a trend towards high-end products, with major brands launching new models priced above 3000 RMB and focusing on intelligent features [17] Market Trends - The new national standard in 2024 is expected to drive demand, with stricter regulations and subsidies in provinces like Jiangsu, Jiangxi, and Shanxi [4][5] - The Southeast Asian market is becoming a preferred destination for electric scooter exports, with countries like Indonesia and Thailand showing rapid urbanization and supportive policies [22][23] - Shared electric scooters and instant delivery services are emerging as potential growth drivers, with the shared electric scooter market expected to reach 8 million units by 2025 [24][25] Competitive Landscape - Leading brands like Yadea and Aima have surpassed 10 million units in sales, with Yadea showing strong growth of 34% YoY in H1 2023 [12][13] - New players like Ninebot have outperformed Niu in sales, with a focus on channel expansion and intelligent features [12] - The industry is witnessing a clear Matthew effect, with top brands consolidating their market positions [12][14] Product Development - Long-range and intelligent features are key competitive factors, driving product upgrades and price increases [8] - Sodium batteries are emerging as a new area of competition, with brands like Yadea and Tailg investing in R&D and expected to launch mass-produced products in 2024 [26][27] - Yadea's high-end models, such as the Guan Neng series, have seen significant growth, accounting for 28% of total sales in 2023 [28][29] Challenges - The industry faces challenges such as contradictions between national standards and market demands, product homogenization, and consumer complaints [30][31][32] - The supply-demand imbalance for legitimate lithium batteries has led to risks of illegal modifications and substandard products [33] Future Outlook - The industry is moving towards high-quality, intelligent, and personalized development, with a focus on design, battery technology, and smart features [35][36][37][38] - Technological advancements in battery and motor systems are expected to address consumer concerns about range and charging [36]

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Goldman Economics Sachs Research 22 May 2024 I 4:24PM EDT USA: FOMC Meeting Minutes Display Range of Views on Inflation Outlook and Policy Risks 开报数据力 MAIN POINTS: Jan Hatzius Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 I alec.phillips@gs.com V Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Spencer Hill, CFA Goidman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 ...