更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 腾讯控股 20240718_原文 2024 年 07 月 19 日 00:43 发言人 00:00 请参会人员务必注意,本次电话会议交流内容仅限参会人员内部参考,任何机构或个人不得以 任何形式对电话会议任何内容进行泄露或外发,请勿以任何方式索要、泄露、散布、转发电话 会议纪要。任何泄露电话会议纪要等信息的行为均为侵权行为。申万宏源研究保留追究泄露转 发者法律责任的权利。 发言人 00:35 各位尊敬的投资者,大家晚上好,我是申万宏源的互联网分析师林启贤。今天跟我一起来做这 个观点分享的是我们的同事夏佳丽。我们团队就是从很早之前一直都是 A 股的传媒,还有港股 的互联网一起覆盖的那在今年的整个月份的时候也是不断的去提示,整个互联网进入到一个提 高股东回报,然后在中国所有的核心资产里面估值性价比非常高的一个阶段。并且提示就是, 如果未来大家还比较关注国内的科技产业,尤其是像 AI 产业要有,比较大的一个发展的话。那, 云厂商包括互联网公司,他们的这个布局一定是产业链当中非常关键的一一环。尽管目前他们 的估值里面完全没有体现对于 AI 以及对于科技股的这种成 ...

Summary of Tencent Holdings Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tencent Holdings - **Industry**: Internet and Technology Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance Expectations - **Q2 Revenue Growth**: Expected to be 8% year-on-year [5] - **Adjusted Net Profit Growth**: Anticipated to grow by 27% year-on-year [5] - **Game Business**: Expected to return to positive growth in Q2, with a projected 6% increase [5][9] - **Advertising Revenue**: Anticipated to grow by 17% year-on-year, driven by video accounts [10] - **Financial Technology Revenue**: Expected to grow by 11% year-on-year, with payment services showing slower growth [11] - **Cloud Business**: Projected to grow by 12% year-on-year, with a focus on high-quality growth [11] Business Segment Insights - **Gaming**: - Domestic games expected to grow by 5%, with key titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" performing well [6] - International gaming revenue expected to grow by 8%, with strong performance from "Brawl Stars" [7] - Anticipated overall gaming growth of over 20% year-on-year in the second half of the year [9] - **Advertising**: - Video accounts are a key growth driver, with significant potential for increased ad load compared to competitors [10] - AI is expected to enhance advertising effectiveness [10] - **Financial Technology**: - Payment services growth is closely tied to macroeconomic conditions, with a projected 6% growth in this segment [11] Strategic Focus Areas - **AI and Technology Investments**: - Tencent is focusing on integrating AI into its business operations, particularly in advertising and cloud services [12][46] - The company has seen a significant increase in its AI-related investments, which are expected to enhance its competitive edge [49] - **Shareholder Returns**: - The company has entered a phase of increasing shareholder returns, with a focus on buybacks and dividends [14][16] - The expected shareholder return rate is over 4% [18] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - **Market Sentiment**: - Despite recent stock price fluctuations, Tencent remains a strong player in the core asset space in China [15][16] - The company is viewed as a high-quality investment option within the Chinese internet sector [18] - **Long-term Growth Potential**: - Concerns exist regarding the long-term growth potential of the gaming sector, but Tencent's global expansion strategy is expected to mitigate these risks [20][21] - The company is leveraging its gaming capabilities to tap into international markets, with a focus on high-margin products [30][51] Future Outlook - **E-commerce and Video Accounts**: - E-commerce is expected to be a significant growth area, with video accounts playing a crucial role in monetization [41][42] - The potential for video account revenue is projected to exceed 600 billion, with significant room for growth [38] - **Cloud and AI Development**: - Tencent is shifting its cloud strategy towards higher-margin services, with a focus on AI applications [47][48] - The company aims to enhance its cloud offerings to compete more effectively in the market [46] Additional Insights - **Profitability Metrics**: - Expected gross margin and adjusted net profit margin for Q2 are projected at 51% and 30%, respectively [13] - **Market Dynamics**: - The competitive landscape is improving, with Tencent positioned to benefit from a more favorable market environment [17] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections discussed during the Tencent Holdings conference call, highlighting the company's financial expectations, strategic focus, and market positioning.

本次电话会议仅服务于华创证券研究所客户不构成投资建议相关人员应自主作出投资决策并自行承担投资风险 华创证券不应使用本次内容所导致的任何损失承担任何责任专家发言内容仅代表专家个人观点不代表本公司观点本次会议内容不得涉及国家保密信息内幕信息未公开重大信息商业秘密个人隐私不得涉及可能引发不当炒作或股价异常波动的敏感信息 不得涉及影响社会或资本市场稳定的言论未经华创证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人不得以任何形式复制刊载转载转发引用本次会议内容否则由此造成的一切后果及法律责任由该机构或个人承担本公司保留追究其法律责任的权利市场有风险投资需谨慎 各位投资者大家下午好我是华盛顿传媒的首页分析师刘欣欢迎大家来参加我们的这个电话会议的活动今天呢我们是专门针对腾讯我们写的这个再认知系列的报告一然后由我们组的志国和文仙来给大家汇报一下我们对腾讯的最新的认知 其实今天整个港股互联网都反弹经过了几天的回调之后都反弹很好我们其实对于整体的港股互联网这个长线维度都是非常乐观的现在这个位置估值也比较便宜然后腾讯这块之前我们也是一直在call 然后认为腾讯这边其实已经底部反转了但是针对一些具体的细节尤其游戏里面的一些具体细节的话可能还是市场有分 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Buy" with a 12-month price target of HK$466, indicating an upside potential of 21.5% from the current price of HK$383.60 [10][91]. Core Insights - Tencent is viewed as one of the most visible and sustainable profit growth setups among China's internet mega caps, driven by game growth acceleration, advertising share gains, and margin expansion at a favorable 15x 2024-25E P/E [40][41]. - The launch of the mobile game "Mobile Dungeon and Fighter" (mDnF) has been particularly successful, ranking No.1 on the China iOS grossing chart on its first day, with an estimated contribution of Rmb7.9 billion in grossing for the first year [58][64]. - Key drivers for Tencent's growth include revenue growth acceleration in the second half of 2024, margin improvement due to quality revenue streams, and increasing recognition of the value of its investment portfolio [41][64]. Summary by Sections Investment Ratings and Relationships - As of April 1, 2024, Goldman Sachs had investment ratings on 2,885 equity securities, with Tencent Holdings included in the "Buy" category [5][10]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Tencent are Rmb609,015 million for 2023, increasing to Rmb765,139.7 million by 2026 [91]. - The estimated EBIT contribution from mDnF is projected to be between Rmb2.3 billion and Rmb2.7 billion for the full year, translating to approximately Rmb1.8 billion EBIT in 2024 [64]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Tencent's mDnF game is expected to have limited cannibalization between its PC and mobile versions, similar to past successful titles [64]. - The game has embraced a front-loaded monetization approach, targeting its IP fans, which has resulted in strong initial monetization [47][64].

尊敬的各位嘉宾观众朋友们大家好我们聚集在这里共同探讨生成式AI的产品创新技术与产业应用探索大模型如何助力企业高质量发展打造产业新智生产力首先请允许我介绍参加本次峰会的嘉宾他们分别是北京市人民政府副秘书长许新超欢迎您 国网客户服务中心董事长赵燕欢迎您北京燃气集团总经理许同欢迎您国家海关总署信息中心总工冯立胜欢迎您沈阳市铁西区人民政府副区长张越欢迎您 中国大唐集团大唐数科公司副总经理周奋强欢迎您华润医药集团副总裁崔兴品欢迎您北京市智慧学物发展研究院院长张鑫欢迎您北京电子控股集团副总裁杜罗坤欢迎您 人力资源和社会保障部信息中心研究员吕立娟欢迎您成都市城市运行和政务服务办总工郑军欢迎您北京市海淀区互联网信息办公室主任黄英欢迎您高纳尔中国区高科技行业副总裁郭磊欢迎您 也欢迎来自各行各业的各位嘉宾欢迎大家感谢各位下面我宣布本次峰会正式开始首先让我们有请北京市人民政府副秘书长许新超先生登台致辞有请 登到这个讲台很忐忑为什么很忐忑呢说白了腾讯作为咱们互联网企业的邻军企业一直保持这样的创新生态我想我以什么样的穿着这一看政府的保守的来和大家去面对又能不让大家反感 一念稿大家都反感对吧如何把政府的开放和咱们的创新有机去结合说很忐忑 ...

□微信月活（百万） yoy I 360 1340 1320 1300 1280 1 260 1240 1220 1200 1180 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% =微信月活 (百万) 收费增值服务注册用户 (百万) 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 资料来源：公司公告，东吴证券研究所 毛利率: ● 1Q24总体毛利率为 52.58% (YoY+16pct, qoq+5pct) , 毛利率正增长由于高毛利率收入来源的快速增长，包括 微信，视频号及搜一搜广告收入，小游戏平台服务费等。 ● 1Q24增值服务毛利率为57%（YoY+5pct, qoq-6pct），同比提升由于订阅收入增长，高毛利小游戏平台服务费增 长，以及分部内容成本与运营成本的下降。 联系人:张良卫/张家琦 腾讯(0700.hk): ...

Summary of the Conference Call Company and Industry - **Company**: Tencent - **Industry**: Gaming, Social Media, Cloud Computing, Financial Technology, SaaS Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q1 2024 was RMB 160 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3% [1] - Gross profit reached RMB 84 billion, up 23% year-on-year and 8% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Non-IFRS operating profit was RMB 59 billion, a 30% increase year-on-year and 19% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Non-IFRS net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 50 billion, reflecting a 54% year-on-year increase and an 18% quarter-on-quarter increase [1] Gaming Sector - Active users in communication and social networks reached 136 million [1] - Domestic game revenue showed a general recovery trend with a 3% year-on-year increase [2] - International game revenue increased by 3% to RMB 14 billion, stable in constant currency [2] - Notable revenue growth from games like VALORANT and PUBG Mobile, with PUBG Mobile seeing double-digit growth in DAU and total revenue [4] - The flagship games, Honor of Kings and Peacekeeper Elite, showed monthly revenue growth in March [4] Digital Content and Advertising - Long video subscription revenue grew by 12% year-on-year, with daily active paid users reaching 116 million [2] - Video account advertising revenue doubled year-on-year due to increased viewership and click-through rates [5] - Overall advertising revenue increased by 26% to RMB 26.5 billion, benefiting from higher engagement and AI-driven ad targeting [4][5] Cloud Computing and SaaS - Tencent Cloud Media Services saw a 50% year-on-year revenue growth, recognized as a market leader for six consecutive years [5] - SaaS products like Tencent Docs and Tencent Meeting have seen increased adoption among enterprise clients [2][5] Shareholder Returns and Investments - Tencent plans to repurchase over HKD 100 billion in shares and increase dividends while investing in AI and high-quality content [1] - The company emphasizes a commitment to high-quality growth, focusing on core platforms and eliminating low-quality products [8][9] Future Outlook and Strategies - Management expressed confidence in the ongoing recovery of key games and the potential for new game releases to become evergreen titles [6][10] - The company is optimistic about maintaining advertising revenue growth despite a challenging environment, leveraging AI for better ad targeting [8][12] - Tencent aims to continue investing in new areas such as AI, new games, and e-commerce services to drive future growth [8][9] Risks and Challenges - The gaming industry remains competitive, with new games needing to compete against established titles [10][11] - Financial technology growth is expected to slow down due to macroeconomic conditions, but wealth management services are anticipated to grow [16][14] Miscellaneous - The company is exploring the use of AI in various sectors, including customer service in gaming [16] - Tencent's diverse global game development teams contribute to its success, with a focus on sharing best practices [18][19] This summary encapsulates the key insights from Tencent's conference call, highlighting its financial performance, strategic initiatives, and outlook for the future.

专家推荐 人工智能大模型正在催生新一轮技术创新与产业变革，也将为工业、金融、广电等 行业数字化转型和高质量发展带来新动能。当前市场以基础大模型为主，通识能力 强，但缺少行业专业知识。如何将大模型融入千行百业，是下一阶段的发展重点。 很高兴地看到，腾讯研究院自 2023 年 8 月就启动了此方面探索，开展了覆盖十余 个行业、上百位专家的访谈，在行业大模型概念厘清、应用进展、实现方式、安全 治理、未来趋势等方面进行了体系化研究，为业界提供了有益借鉴。 大模型上云落地，能够加速形成新质生产力，推动数字经济的提质换档。期待与更 多同仁共同探讨、共同努力。 ——中国工程院院士、原副院长 邬贺铨 工业是国家之本、经济之基。“AI+ 制造”能够提高生产效率、提升产品质量、实 现个性化定制、优化资源配置、促进绿色环保、实现人才结构优化等，进而加快推 进中国工业的五个转型升级，实现工业的数字转型与智能化升级，促进新质生产力 形成，使我国由制造大国向制造强国大步迈进。 ...

. . . . 字幕提供者-Snowden Today and good evening. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to Tencent Holdings Limited 2024 First Quarter Results Announcement Webinar. I'm Wendy Huang from Tencent IR team. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the management presentation, there will be a question and answer session. For participants who dial in by phone, if you wish to ask a question, Please press five on your telephone to raise your hand. If you are accessing from the conference meeting or ...