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Standard beats size in Europe’s offshore wind
罗兰贝格· 2024-11-23 00:53
Industry Overview - Offshore wind (OW) is a key pillar of Europe's energy transition, crucial for meeting climate targets, achieving energy independence, and creating earning capacity in the region's future economy [3] - Europe's OW industry must triple its supply chain capacity over the next seven years to meet ambitious rollout targets, requiring a massive ramp-up from 7 GW/year in 2023 to 20 GW/year by 2030 [11][13] - The North Sea countries aim to reach 120 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030, requiring the installation of 5,600 turbines with a capacity of 15 MW each, along with 15 new installation vessels [15][16] Challenges in the OW Industry - A "rat race" towards ever-larger turbines is causing costs to increase and hampering capacity rollout due to shorter product life cycles and uncertainty about future turbine sizes [3][4] - The vicious cycle includes competitive auctions by governments, pressure on project developers to use the newest turbines, and OEMs accelerating product introductions, leading to performance issues and supply chain bottlenecks [4][27] - The levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for wind farms in Europe has risen from ~50 to ~70 EUR/MWh due to inflation, interest rate hikes, and supply chain bottlenecks, leading to project postponements [20][21] Diminishing Returns on Larger Turbines - Larger turbines historically reduced costs by decreasing the number of turbines needed, but the cost-benefits are now diminishing due to the negative economy of scale for expensive components [32][33] - Incremental increases in turbine capacity are leading to relatively lower decreases in the number of turbines required for a given wind farm capacity, reducing the cost-benefit of larger turbines [33][38] Standardization as a Solution - Setting a standard turbine size for a considerable period is necessary to break the vicious cycle, create investment certainty, and support the capacity boost needed for Europe's OW industry [4][41] - Standardization will lead to longer product life cycles, stronger learning effects, and more predictability in capacity rollout, enabling investments in R&D and industrialization [41][44] - A fixed turbine size will still allow for differentiation and competition in aspects like turbine performance, installation techniques, and circularity gains [41] Standardization Roadmap - A standardization roadmap is needed to plan the move to larger and/or smarter turbines, creating predictability for the supply chain to invest in capacity extensions and technological innovations [60][61] - The roadmap should align on the dimensions and timetable of the next standard, such as 30 MW turbines for commercial deliveries in 2037, to ensure sufficient lead time for industrialization and innovation [61][63] Action Required - Governments must enforce a turbine standard, either through EU regulation or the North Seas Energy Cooperation (NSEC), to break the vicious cycle and ensure a timely and affordable rollout [73] - The European OW industry must develop a roadmap for future turbine sizes and pursue other standardization initiatives, such as for turbine components and vessel landings [73][74]
Why Mexico is becoming the leading destination for automotive companies
罗兰贝格· 2024-11-07 00:53
Industry Investment Rating - The report highlights Mexico as a prime candidate for nearshoring, particularly for the automotive industry, due to its competitive advantages such as lower labor, energy, and transport costs, as well as proximity to the US market [4][11][12] Core Viewpoints - Mexico has become a leading destination for automotive companies due to its significant cost advantages, strong supplier base, and favorable trade agreements [4][11][12] - The country received USD 43.9 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2023, making it one of the top 15 FDI-receiving countries globally [3][16] - Mexico offers a 35% total landed-cost advantage over China, with labor costs 30% lower than in China, and this gap is expected to widen through 2030 [19][20][21] - 78% of surveyed automotive OEMs and suppliers are either conducting or assessing nearshoring to Mexico, with assembly operations being the most cited fit [5][6] Summary by Sections Introduction: Nearshoring – Coming to a Place Near You - Globalization has faced challenges due to geopolitical tensions, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Ukraine war, leading companies to shift production closer to major markets like the US and China [9] - Nearshoring is becoming a trend, with Mexico emerging as a key destination for automotive companies [9][10] Why Mexico? Competitive Advantages - Mexico offers lower nominal hourly wages and electricity costs compared to China and Vietnam, making it a cost-effective manufacturing hub [12][14] - The country benefits from its proximity to the US, lower transport risks, and a robust automotive supplier base [4][11] - US FDI outflows to Mexico have surged, surpassing those to China, with USD 10 billion in 2022 and USD 43.9 billion in 2023 [3][16] Manufacturing Costs in Mexico vs. China - Mexico has a 35% landed-cost advantage over China, driven by lower labor and freight costs, with the gap expected to grow to 45% by 2030 [19][20][21] - Shipping costs from Mexico to the US are 56% lower than from East Asia, with 90% of freight traveling by ground transport [20] Automotive Industry Opportunities - Mexico's proximity to the US enhances its appeal for automotive manufacturers, offering benefits such as improved quality control, cost efficiency, and supply chain visibility [27] - Recent US regulations, including the USMCA and the Inflation Reduction Act, further boost Mexico's attractiveness for automotive production [28][29] Investment Trends in Mexico - Major automotive companies like GM, Tesla, BMW, Volkswagen, and ZF Group have announced significant investments in Mexico, focusing on electric vehicle production [34] - Vehicle production in Mexico is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.3% between 2021 and 2029, outpacing North American production growth [35][36] Best-Fit Automotive Sectors for Nearshoring - Assembly operations, wiring, chassis, and body structures are the most viable components for nearshoring to Mexico, with significant cost savings compared to China [6][40][41] - EV powertrains are expected to become a high-potential category for nearshoring as EV production increases [42][43] Planning and Execution for Nearshoring - Key success factors for nearshoring to Mexico include navigating bureaucracy, mitigating security risks, adapting to cultural differences, and ensuring cost-competitive production [44] - Companies must also consider access to a capable supply base, skilled labor, and key resources like energy and water [44][45]
废旧塑料的再利用——新的发展机会
罗兰贝格· 2024-10-15 12:31
Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong long-term investment opportunity in the recycling of plastic waste, with a projected market value increase from approximately €30 billion today to about €370 billion by 2050, representing a twelvefold growth [45]. Core Insights - The global plastic waste management landscape is evolving, driven by regulatory pressures, sustainability demands, and market forces, which are expected to significantly increase recycling rates from about 10% today to approximately 45% by 2050 [39][44]. - The overall market value of municipal solid waste (MSW) is projected to grow from €160 billion in 2021 to €860 billion by 2050, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6% [22][28]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy mechanisms as key catalysts for waste recycling and reuse, highlighting that effective regulatory frameworks can drive significant improvements in recycling rates and market dynamics [60][61]. Summary by Sections Global Urban Solid Waste Context - Urban solid waste is expected to double by 2050, reaching 4 billion tons, primarily driven by population growth and increased consumption in emerging economies [8][9]. - The average global urban solid waste generation is about 250 kg per person per year, with significant disparities between developed and developing economies [9][12]. Recyclable Materials with a "Golden" Future - The value of global plastic waste is projected to increase significantly, with the potential to reach €370 billion annually by 2050 if recycling rates improve to 45% [3][15]. - The report identifies four key recyclable materials (fibers, metals, plastics, and glass) that currently account for 35% of urban solid waste and are expected to maintain this proportion through 2050 [12][27]. Plastic Waste Management - Currently, only about 10% of plastic waste is recycled, with the majority either landfilled or incinerated [41][44]. - The report anticipates that the total volume of plastic waste will reach approximately 510 million tons by 2050, with a slower growth rate of 1-1.5% due to increased regulatory pressures and consumer demand for sustainable products [36][37]. Investment Opportunities in Recycling - The report highlights that mechanical and chemical recycling are expected to grow significantly, with mechanical recycling projected to have a CAGR of about 5% and chemical recycling around 14% [39][55]. - The total investment required for plastic waste recycling capabilities is estimated to exceed €190 billion from 2021 to 2050, averaging about €6 billion annually [59]. Policy Mechanisms and Market Dynamics - Effective policy frameworks are crucial for enhancing recycling rates and market efficiency, with various strategies including producer responsibility and minimum purchase price guarantees being highlighted as effective measures [60][64]. - The report suggests that the interplay between regulatory frameworks, market forces, and stakeholder engagement will shape the future of plastic waste management and recycling [61][65].
新中国的商业成功
罗兰贝格· 2024-10-11 09:30
Group 1: Economic Context - China's GDP growth rate has normalized since 2010, moving away from the extraordinary rates of 14.2% seen in the past[2] - In 2023, China's GDP growth rate is projected at 5.2%, outperforming the Eurozone (0.4%), the US (2.5%), and the global economy (3.2%)[4] - The International Monetary Fund forecasts China's GDP growth to be 4.6% in 2024 and 4.1% in 2025, indicating a sustained growth momentum[4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The "Old China Story" characterized by low labor costs and high capital productivity has shifted to a "New China Story" where growth is more stable but slower[2] - Despite challenges, China's industrial clusters remain vital to global supply chains, and the country is modernizing through high-tech capacity enhancements[6] - The youth unemployment rate (ages 16-24) is concerning, indicating potential social tensions that could affect economic stability[6] Group 3: Strategic Recommendations for Multinationals - Multinational companies must adapt their business models to align with the evolving Chinese market and mitigate associated risks[10] - The Roland Berger China Competitiveness Index helps assess business resilience and exposure to economic slowdowns and geopolitical risks[10] - Strategies such as risk diversification, local investment, and strengthening intellectual property protection are recommended for enhancing competitiveness in China[13]
OEMs' Digital Operations
罗兰贝格· 2024-09-20 00:53
天猫汽车 Roland Berger 汽车数字化经营白皮书 洞察汽车产业生态 探索高质量增长方案 2024年9月 目录 01/摘要 01 02/汽车全行业产业及消费趋势洞察 03 03/聚焦汽车全行业的"增长"解决方案 21 04/案例实践 33 05/总结 39 000 100 the states 82 s 84.02 inter N STERE THE STORE Purportions . d b 1 t 2019 11:1 : 1 the state of the first of the country of 摘要 坐全球最大汽车市场的宝座。随着中国乘用车保 品和服务的识别、人群特征的洞察、跨界入局的 有量即将步入整体稳健培长的发展阶段,日渐百 焕新转型、市场拓展的渠道构建等诸多问题接避 热化竞争超势下未来如何支撑高速增长成为中国 而至。 市场车企驱待制定突窦国策略的关键命题。同时, 中国从汽车大国迈向汽车强国的重担并非仅落于 在该背素下,罗兰贝格携手天猫,一方面是罗兰贝 服务等客类玩家需携手共建完善的汽车产业生 件和汽车后市场全行业发展前沿趋势的深刻洞见 历经二十多年的奋进突破与沉淀蓄力,中国已 ...
2024全球IPv6发展指数报告
罗兰贝格· 2024-08-27 07:20
Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong investment outlook for the IPv6 industry, emphasizing its critical role in digital infrastructure and economic transformation. Core Insights - The transition to IPv6 is essential for overcoming the limitations of IPv4 address exhaustion, enabling the growth of the digital economy and supporting innovations in various sectors such as AI, IoT, and cloud computing [1][4][10]. - The global IPv6 deployment has accelerated significantly in 2023, with overall coverage surpassing 30%, and some leading countries reaching nearly 70% coverage [4][10]. - IPv6 Enhanced technologies are driving the next wave of internet evolution, providing solutions for diverse applications and enhancing network capabilities [8][10]. Summary by Sections 1. IPv6 Development Overview in 2023 - The urgency for IPv6 deployment has increased due to the depletion of IPv4 addresses and the rising demand from technologies like 5G and IoT [4]. - IPv6 is positioned as the foundation for digital infrastructure, crucial for the digital transformation of economies and societies [5][10]. - The report highlights the shift in focus from initial network expansion to the productization and large-scale application of IPv6 Enhanced technologies [4][5]. 2. Global IPv6 Development Index - The report constructs a Global IPv6 Development Index to measure the deployment progress across 92 countries, categorizing them into leaders, accelerators, and starters based on their index scores [17][27]. - The index reflects significant improvements across all categories, with leaders showing the most progress [27][31]. 3. Country-Specific IPv6 Development Analysis and Policy Recommendations - The report analyzes the IPv6 development status of ten representative countries, providing tailored policy recommendations to enhance their IPv6 deployment efforts [3][33]. - Countries like Saudi Arabia and Malaysia are highlighted for their advancements and the need for further support in content deployment and innovation [33][37]. - Recommendations include financial incentives for content providers and the establishment of industry standards to promote IPv6 adoption [34][38].
Freight Logistics Decarbonization Whitepaper: LEAD the green wave, bring the DEEP impact
罗兰贝格· 2024-06-05 00:52
2024 Freight Logistics Decarbonization Whitepaper: LEAD the green wave, bring the DEEP impact Executive Summary: logistics nodes should not be limited to en- are the necessary path to achieving green ergy transformation or renovation of a sin- and low-carbon goals. Green Freight Logistics, Intelligence-Crafted Future gle piece of equipment, but requires overall Node decarbonization will be continuously planning, systematic implementation, and iterative and interconnected, moving gradual achievement of goals ...
2024年中国汽车金融报告
罗兰贝格· 2024-05-29 08:45
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the automotive finance industry, but it highlights significant growth potential in the new energy vehicle (NEV) finance sector, suggesting a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this area [3][26]. Core Insights - The Chinese passenger car market has rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, with NEV sales exceeding 7.7 million units in 2023, indicating a strong recovery and growth trajectory [3][11]. - The report emphasizes a shift towards "experience-oriented products" in the automotive market, where consumer preferences are increasingly focused on the overall experience of purchasing and using vehicles rather than just their social status or durability [3][19]. - The automotive finance penetration rate experienced a historic decline in 2023, dropping to 56%, with NEV finance penetration slightly below the overall market level, indicating a need for transformation in automotive finance services [3][21]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Development Trends in NEV Finance - The NEV market is expected to continue its growth, with projections indicating that NEV penetration could exceed 40% in 2024, driven by policy support, supply diversification, and increasing consumer acceptance [11][19]. - The report identifies a transition in consumer attitudes towards NEVs, with a growing focus on the overall experience rather than just price [3][19]. Section 2: Automotive Finance Market - The overall automotive finance penetration rate fell for the first time in history, attributed to supply constraints and insufficient demand, with a forecasted recovery to around 71% by 2028 [21][26]. - The market is characterized by intense competition, with commercial banks gaining market share at the expense of automotive finance companies and leasing firms [28][30]. Section 3: User Characteristics in NEV Finance - The report identifies four key characteristics of NEV finance users: a shift from price as the primary decision factor to experience as a core element, a rational consumption habit, a demand for personalized services, and the need for differentiated offerings for various consumer segments [34][38]. - Users are increasingly willing to pay for enhanced service experiences, indicating a shift in consumer expectations towards more comprehensive and tailored financial services [38][42]. Section 4: Differentiated Services for Diverse User Groups - The report highlights the need for automotive finance institutions to cater to diverse consumer segments, including Gen Z, older consumers, women, and first-time buyers, each with unique preferences and expectations [51][56]. - It emphasizes the importance of understanding consumer behavior and preferences to enhance service delivery and customer satisfaction in the evolving automotive finance landscape [57][58].