Global Macro Research December 2nd, 2024 Global Macro Outlook and Strategy Global Rates, Commodities, Currencies and Emerging Markets | Luis Oganes AC (44-20) 7742-1420 luis.oganes@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc See end pages for analyst certification and important disclosures, including investment banking relationships. .JPI Overall summary US Rates We project 100bp of further easing by 3Q25 with the Fed funds rate target range troughing at 3.5-3.75%, which supports lower yields and steeper curves ...

M Update Hon Hai Precision | Asia Pacific December 2, 2024 03:46 AM GMT Our Take on the GB200 Server Rack Delivery and Order Trend What's new? Commercial Times reported today that Microsoft has cut its GB200 server rack orders by 40% and transferred part of the orders to GB300 server racks. This is because GB200 mass production will likely be delayed into March 2025 due to technological bottlenecks for cartridge connector design. Digitimes also reported today that xAI has placed an order for 1,600 GB200 ser ...

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Jefferies USA | Aerospace & Defense Electronics Equity Research $ 7 $ 9 $ 4 $ 9 2 % 0 % 1 % 6 % 9 % 9 % 5 % 9 % 0 % 7 % 9 % 8 % 3 % | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Industry and Company Overview * **Industry**: The report focuses on the US equity market and provides outlook and investment recommendations for 2025. * **Key Companies**: The report highlights the "Magnificent 7" stocks (AMZN, AAPL, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSLA) as significant contributors to the S&P 500 index's performance. * **M&A Candidates**: The report identifies a basket of 62 potential US M&A candidates with a meaningful probability of being acquired. * **SMB-Exposed Stocks**: The report recommends a basket of 60 stocks with revenue exposure to US small- and medium-sized businesses. * **AI Phase 3 Stocks**: The report identifies 30 stocks in "Phase 3" of the AI evolution with the potential to monetize AI by generating incremental revenues. Core Views and Evidence * **S&P 500 Index**: Goldman Sachs forecasts the S&P 500 index to rise to 6500 by year-end 2025, reflecting an 11% price gain and 12% total return with dividends. * **Earnings Growth**: The report expects earnings growth of 11% in 2025 and 7% in 2026. * **P/E Multiple**: The report projects a forward P/E multiple of 21.5x at the end of next year, a 1% compression from the current P/E of 21.7x. * **Magnificent 7**: The report expects the "Magnificent 7" stocks to outperform the S&P 500 index by approximately 7 pp in 2025, the slimmest margin in seven years. * **M&A Activity**: The report forecasts a 25% year/year increase in the number of completed mergers in 2025. * **SMB-Exposed Stocks**: The report expects an improving small business operating environment to lift the earnings and valuation of SMB-exposed stocks. * **AI Phase 3 Stocks**: The report expects investor interest to transition from AI infrastructure to broader AI "Phase 3" application rollout and monetization. Investment Recommendations 1. **Think Big**: Invest in the "Magnificent 7" stocks and seek opportunities in mid-cap equities. 2. **Maximize Your Options**: Invest in a basket of potential US M&A candidates. 3. **Low Rent, High Stakes**: Invest in a basket of stocks with revenue exposure to US small- and medium-sized businesses. 4. **Deliver the Goods**: Invest in stocks in "Phase 3" of the AI evolution with the potential to monetize AI. 5. **Protect the Downside and the Upside will take care of itself**: Overweight positions in Materials, Software & Services, and Utilities. Additional Key Points * The report emphasizes the importance of considering a diversified portfolio and taking advantage of periods of low volatility. * The report acknowledges the potential risks associated with high valuations and event risk. * The report provides a detailed analysis of the economic and earnings outlook for the US equity market.

_ Global FX Trader Election Detection Our thoughts on USD, EUR, CNY, JPY, GBP, NZD, CEE & NOK n USD: Is the elephant in the room already? The debate this week has ranged from whether markets are already almost fully pricing a Republican victory to whether all of the recent moves can be attributed to economic news. We think there is certainly some tariff premium in FX markets but acknowledge a mix of macro factors in the US and abroad can likely account for most of the Dollar's strength this month, with the ...

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