Summary of J.P. Morgan Global Commodities Research - Oil Demand & Inventory Tracker Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global oil industry, specifically analyzing oil demand and inventory levels as of January 2025. Key Points Oil Demand - Global oil demand increased by 1.5 million barrels per day (mbd) year-over-year in January, reaching a total of 101.5 mbd, exceeding monthly projections by 200 thousand barrels per day (kbd) [2][4][86] - The demand for heating fuels in the U.S. has surged, with the four-week average distillate demand at its highest since March 2022 [4][86] - In Asia, travel volumes during China's New Year holiday rose by 8% compared to the previous year, surpassing the forecast of 7% [4][86] - India anticipates a significant increase in travel due to a religious pilgrimage expected to attract 450 million devotees between January and February [4][86] Oil Inventories - Global observable oil inventories (crude and products) saw a net increase of 7 mb in the last week of January, driven by a 20 mb rise in crude oil inventories, partially offset by a 13 mb decline in oil product inventories [4][86] - Throughout January, global observable oil inventories experienced a drawdown of 78 mb, primarily due to a 58 mb reduction in crude oil stocks and a 20 mb decrease in oil product inventories [4][86] - OECD commercial oil stocks reported a net reduction of 24 mb in January, with a significant 31 mb reduction in oil product stocks, while crude oil inventories increased by 7 mb [3][4][86] Regional Insights - Five economies reported their oil consumption statistics, indicating varied trends across regions [4][86] - The U.S. saw a notable increase in crude oil inventories by 9 mb, marking the largest weekly increase since February 2024, while oil product stocks fell by 11 mb due to heightened demand for heating fuel [4][86] Additional Observations - The report highlights the impact of seasonal factors, such as winter heating needs in the U.S. and holiday travel in Asia, on oil demand [4][86] - The data suggests a potential continuation of upward momentum in oil demand into February 2025 [4][86] Conclusion - The analysis indicates a robust recovery in global oil demand, driven by seasonal factors and increased travel activity, while inventory levels reflect a complex interplay of supply and demand dynamics across different regions. The insights provided can inform investment strategies and risk assessments in the oil sector.

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Deepseek 对高阶智驾落地影响第 4 场 摘要 • Deep 模型通过优化数据处理和分析，提升自动驾驶车辆的感知、决策和执 行能力，同时显著降低云端和端侧的计算成本，例如将原本需要 200 TOPS 的芯片算力需求降低至 150 TOPS。 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 Deep 模型作为一个基座模型，如何促进智能驾驶的落地？具体有哪些结果可以 分享？ Deep 模型在智能驾驶领域的落地主要体现在两个方面：体验和成本。首先，在 ...

January 10, 2025 03:19 PM GMT US Economics | North America December employment: So much for downside risk The report should reduce concerns about a weaker labor market: payrolls +256k, UE rate -0.15pp to 4.1%. Services drove the acceleration: upswings in holiday-related retail & transport, and also in business services. Payroll earnings rose 5.9% saar pace in 4Q. Fed cuts are about inflation now. Payrolls increased 256k in December, with private payrolls +223k and little revision to prior months. The unempl ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 7 January 2025 Global Research Global Equity Derivatives Strategy 2025 Volatility Outlook: Uncertainty reigns A new ballgame for volatility – see Macro volatility backdrop We have consolidated our multitude of new models for directional relative value and macro/market/stock-specific volatility forecasting. These are well-tested and in some cases use innovative approaches to model probability distributions that we compare to the option-implied (market) distribution ...

Equity Research 6 January 2025 Security/Design/Vertical SaaS 4 Ideas, 5 Themes, 20 Predictions for 2025 We present our 2025 outlook for the security, design, and vertical-specific software spaces and highlight ADBE, ADSK, NCNO, and VRNS as 4 names we like for the year ahead. We also present 5 industry/investor themes and 20 predictions for our individual names into the year in the slides. We present our 2025 outlook for the security, design, and vertical specific software spaces in the slides attached. Slid ...

Global Research ab 6 January 2025 Quant Navigator Quant Models for Fundamental Investors: Opportunities & Risk, Dec Update Quant Navigator: Leveraging Quant Tools with Human Insights Quantitative tools enable us to analyze large volumes of historical information. Where quant models are at a disadvantage, we can leverage human insights to make more informed investment decisions. By combining human insights with machine analytics, we're able to address the various sources of return variation (beta, macro, sty ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 2 January 2025 | | shuinu9870 | | shuinu9870 | | shuinu9870 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 更多一 | 手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一 | 手调研纪要和研报数据加V： | 更多一 | 手调研纪要和研报数据加V： | | | | 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 | | 2 January 2025 | | | | FX Market | | Currencies Global | | | | | December | 2024 shuinu9870 | | shuinu9870 | | shuinu9870 | | Main Events | 手调研纪要和研报数据加V： ◆ Fed cuts by 25bp to 4.25-4.50%; median "dot plot" projections | Paul Mackel | | | | | | | Global Head of FX Research 手调研纪要 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on Emerging Markets (EM) bond and equity fund flows, particularly highlighting trends in retail bond funds and equity funds in the EM sector [68][80]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Cumulative Fund Flows**: Since 2004, cumulative EM retail bond fund flows are +$227 billion, with +$143 billion to hard currency and +$85 billion to local currency. Cumulative EM retail equity fund flows are +$313 billion, with +$322 billion to GEM funds and -$8 billion to regional funds [46]. - **Recent Fund Flows**: - EM bond flows were -$1.7 billion this week, with hard currency fund outflows accelerating to -$1.5 billion and local currency fund outflows declining to -$184 million. - EM equity flows were -$996 million, a significant decrease from -$4.6 billion the previous week [80]. - **ETF vs. Non-ETF Flows**: ETF outflows for EM bonds accelerated to -$1.1 billion, while non-ETF outflows fell to -$606 million. For EM equity, ETF outflows were -$512 million and non-ETF outflows were -$483 million [80]. - **Regional Performance**: Among regional funds, Asia ex-Japan saw unchanged outflows at -$1.5 billion, while EMEA had inflows of +$61 million and LatAm had outflows of -$243 million [80]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Non-Resident EM Portfolio Flows**: There were net foreign outflows from EM local bonds, particularly from Hungary (-$704 million), and from EM equities, mainly from Taiwan (-$1.0 billion) [80]. - **Year-to-Date Flows**: Year-to-date flows to EM bonds and equities stand at -$29.9 billion and -$31.3 billion, respectively, indicating a challenging environment for both asset classes [80]. - **Cumulative EM Retail Bond Fund Flows**: The report indicates that cumulative EM retail bond fund flows have been negative in recent weeks, reflecting broader market trends and investor sentiment [80]. Data Highlights - **Weekly EM Retail Equity Fund Flows**: The report shows a significant drop in retail equity fund flows, with a 4-week average of -2,169 million [2]. - **Cumulative EM Bond Fund Flows**: The cumulative flows for EM bond funds show a stark contrast between retail and strategic flows, with retail flows being more volatile [18]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing insights into the current state of the EM bond and equity markets, along with specific data that highlights trends and investor behavior.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the U.S. machinery industry, focusing on various companies and their exposure to tariffs and supply chain dynamics. Company-Specific Insights Deere & Co. (DE) - Less than 5% of U.S. sales are manufactured in Mexico, with over 75% of products sold in the U.S. assembled domestically - The Agriculture and Turf division is a net exporter, positioning the company well against potential trade policy changes [2] CNH Industrial (CNH) - Manufactures large equipment in the U.S. and relies on global sourcing, particularly from China and Europe - Plans to manage tariff impacts by passing costs along, but is concerned about potential retaliatory measures from China affecting U.S. farmers [2] AGCO Corporation (AGCO) - 40% of North American sales are produced outside the U.S., with 25-30% from Europe - Tariffs involving Mexico and Canada are not expected to significantly impact AGCO, but European tariffs could necessitate pricing adjustments [2] PACCAR Inc. (PCAR) - Majority of production is local for local, with manufacturing facilities in the U.S. for Kenworth and Peterbilt - The Mexico facility primarily serves Mexico and Central/South America, with limited exposure to U.S. markets [2] Cummins Inc. (CMI) - Operates several plants in Mexico, with some under the Maquiladora structure, affecting tariff impacts - Key facilities include a foundry and a transmission plant, with no significant exposure to Canada [11] Allison Transmission Holdings (ALSN) - Supply chain is largely U.S.-based, with no facilities in Mexico, but suppliers may source components from Mexico [11] Atmus Filtration Technologies (ATMU) - Predominantly manufactures 'in region, for region,' with a facility in Mexico for aftermarket sales - Management is preparing for potential tariffs but believes labor arbitrage may still favor production in Mexico [11] Illinois Tool Works (ITW) - Limited exposure due to lack of low-cost labor structure, prepared to adjust prices to offset future impacts [11] ESAB Corporation (ESAB) - China accounts for only 5% of total revenue, with a focus on high-tier markets - Observing a shift in manufacturing from China to Southeast Asia, particularly India [11] Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) - Imports scissor lifts from Mexico, with flexibility to shift production to the U.S. if tariffs become burdensome [11] Terex Corporation (TEX) - Does not import machines from China, with tariff exposure mainly linked to manufacturing in Mexico [12] Middleby Corporation (MIDD) - Minimal tariff exposure with less than $100 million in COGS attributed to China, focusing on domestic manufacturing [12] Kennametal Inc. (KMT) - No manufacturing base in Mexico but has revenue exposure; potential retaliatory tariffs could impact sourcing [12] United Rentals, Inc. (URI) - Most purchases are domestically produced, focusing on maintaining competitive pricing amidst potential tariff impacts [12] Herc Holdings, Inc. (HRI) - Majority of fleet sourced from domestic manufacturers, maintaining multiple suppliers for negotiation leverage [12] Custom Truck One Source (CTOS) - Faces significant tariff implications on chassis sourced from Mexico and Canada, monitoring potential changes [12] Tariff Implications - Proposed tariffs set to take effect on January 20, 2025, include an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods and a 25% tariff on products from Mexico and Canada - Most companies have tiered suppliers in these countries, which may lead to inflationary cost pressures that need to be managed through pricing or supply chain diversification [8] Conclusion - The U.S. machinery industry is navigating complex supply chain dynamics and potential tariff impacts, with companies preparing to adjust strategies to mitigate risks and maintain competitiveness in the market [8][11][12]