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Tactical Derivatives Strategy
J.P.Morgan· 2024-08-13 10:00
Investment Ratings - Palo Alto Networks (PANW) is rated Overweight with a price target (PT) of $340/share [5][19] - Target Corporation (TGT) is rated Neutral with a PT of $153/share [11][19] Core Insights - PANW shares have risen 12.4% year-to-date, performing in line with the S&P 500 index (+13% YTD) and the Nasdaq Composite index (+12% YTD) [5] - Despite a nearly 4% drop following billings weakness in F3Q'24 results, PANW is well-positioned for future growth due to better margin expansion and potential revenue recovery [5] - TGT shares have underperformed, falling almost 4% YTD, as the company faces challenges related to consumer discretionary spending and sales declines [10][11] Summary by Sections Palo Alto Networks (PANW) - The report recommends bullish investors to overlay positions with a September 13th $335/$360 strike 1x2 Call Spread Booster, indicating a 0.1% option premium against a reference price of $331.48 [5] - The implied move for PANW stands at almost 10%, which is above its 5-year (8.3%) and 10-year (8.0%) averages [3] - The valuation is based on a 31.7x EV/FCF multiple of CY24 estimates, implying a 29.6x multiple on CY25 FCF estimates, which is slightly discounted compared to peers [5] Target Corporation (TGT) - The report suggests bearish investors buy a September 13th $150/$132/$127 strike Collared Put Spread, paying a 0.2% option premium against a reference price of $135.50 [6] - TGT's implied move is almost 8%, in line with its medium-term average but above its longer-term history [10] - The team expects management to narrow down guidance for both comps and EPS, potentially leading to downward revisions and pressure on shares [11]
Korea:Customs exports rose in early August
J.P.Morgan· 2024-08-13 09:59
J.P.Morgan Asia Pacific Emerging Markets Research 12 August 2024 Korea: Customs exports rose in early August Customs exports during the first 10-days of August rose 16.7%oya, despite fewer trading days this month than a year ago. As a result, we estimate that the full-month exports should rise 21.4%oya in August vs. 13.9%oya actual growth in July. If seasonally adjusted, the first 10-day exports rebounded 5.5%m/m, sa after a 5.6% fall in July (although it is a noisy 10-day series, not the actual full month ...
Europe, Middle East and Africa Emerging Markets Weekly
J.P.Morgan· 2024-08-13 09:59
J.P.Mor Europe Emerging Markets Research 12 August 2024 Europe, Middle East and Africa Emerging Markets Weekly Inflation risk assessment key to SARB policy outlook In our view, the likelihood of a larger than previously forecasted 25bp cut in September has now risen to 40% - 50%, but FX pressures and services inflation risks will determine the eventuality. In recent months, the SARB had remained cautious and hesitant to start an easing cycle, even as local political and fiscal risks diminished. A key argume ...
EM Equity ETF Flows:Daily net subscriptions/redemptions of major EM Equity ETFs
J.P.Morgan· 2024-08-13 09:58
J.P.Morgan Global Markets Strategy 12 August 2024 EM Equity ETF Flows Daily net subscriptions/redemptions of major EM Equity ETFs – 9 August 2024 Total EM: Net redemptions of US$12mn. o EM Broad: Net redemptions of US$1mn. o EM Asia: Net redemptions of US$11mn. o Brazil: Net redemptions of US$38mn. o Mexico: Strong subscriptions of US$28mn. o China: Net redemptions of US$10mn. o Korea: Net subscriptions of US$4mn. o Equity Macro Research Rajiv Batra Ac (65) 6882-8151 rajiv.j.batra@jpmorgan.com Khoi Vu, CFA ...
China Equity Data Tracker:A macro and results~heavy week ahead
J.P.Morgan· 2024-08-13 09:58
J.P.Morgan Global Markets Strategy 11 August 2024 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China Equity Data Tracker A macro and results-heavy week ahead | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...
Asian FX:Back to square one,Move from UW to MW Asia FX in GBI~EM; lower USD/ CNY target
J.P.Morgan· 2024-08-13 07:16
J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Emerging Markets Research 06 August 2024 Asian FX: Back to square one Move from UW to MW Asia FX in GBI-EM; lower USD/ CNY target • Rate differentials have dominated low yielding Asia FX. Short-term valuations have corrected in funders (i.e., JPY, CNH and THB), and even look tactically rich in MYR. INR remains a laggard on further USD weakness, while PHP, SGD and (eventually) TWD present better opportunities to be short USD. We close out UW THB and OW INR and turn MW Asia FX in ...
Global Commodities:Northern summer energy demand drives down global commodity availability ~ in fundamental contrast to the BCOM crunch
J.P.Morgan· 2024-08-12 10:02
Global Commodities Northern summer energy demand drives down global commodity availability - in fundamental contrast to the BCOM crunch • Global commodity inventory availability declined by -0.9% MOM through July to a three-month low of 64.3 days-of-use, from 64.9 days-ofuse in June, as rising energy demand through the Northern summer and declining crude & product inventories weighed on availability. On an ExChina basis (Ex-China CIM), the monitor, which is a proxy for globally tradeable inventories, was st ...
Feedstocks for Thought
J.P.Morgan· 2024-08-12 09:58
Feedstocks for Thought European Chemicals | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | European Credit – Basic Resources and General Industrials | | | Ed McGuinness, CFA AC | | | (44-20) 7134-0456 ed.mcguinness ...
Gerdau:“Steel” feeling the import pressure but seeing signs of improvement
J.P.Morgan· 2024-08-12 09:57
Gerdau "Steel" feeling the import pressure but seeing signs of improvement • Results could have been worse given the challenging steel environment. Gerdau's results fared better than what we expected in light of a still challenging environment. While EBITDA did miss expectations, results would have been closer to in line if not for a R$131mm non-recurring effect associated with shut down Brazilian plants. Without this non-recurring item, Brazilian results would have actually grown sequentially with modest m ...
Overview:When direction is clear, it is all about speed and destination
J.P.Morgan· 2024-08-12 09:57
02 August 2024 J P M O R G A N Global Rates Strategy Fabio Bassi AC (44-20) 7134-1989 fabio.bassi@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Elisabetta Ferrara (44-20) 7134-2765 elisabetta.ferrara@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Overview When direction is clear, it is all about speed and destination Increasing confidence on the broad disinflation dynamic across DM has driven a repricing of monetary policy expectations, with a sharp acceleration recently on combination of central bank rhetoric and macro ...