North America Equity Research 19 November 2024 J P M O R G A N JPM Shale Land Rig Analysis Analyzing Trends in U.S. Land Activity by Contractor, Basin and Customer Mix JPM View: Despite record U.S. oil production and abundant natural gas supply, the U.S. rig count has been on a downward trend since the end of 2022 reflecting the adoption of no or slow growth models from the Public E&Ps and significant D&C efficiency gains, which has led to less demand. As noted in Figure 20Total RigAdsYTD, the U.S. land rig ...

North America Equity Research 18 November 2024 J P M O R G A N EE/MI Notes from the Road: Annual EEI Conference Highlights Strong Demand Runway for U.S. Utility/T&D Market Our trip to the annual EEI conference reinforced our confidence in the multi-year favorable outlook for U.S. electric utility spending, and positive view of related exposure in the EE/MI sector (HUBB/ETN/EMR/WCC are most exposed). Increasing expectations on load growth, supported by economic development, now being led by data center deman ...

14 November 2024 | 6:00PM GMT Global Markets Analyst Markets Outlook 2025: Trading Tails and Tailwinds We recently laid out our Global Macro Outlook for 2025—Tailwinds (Probably) Trump Tariffs. We provide more detail on our Global Markets Outlook here, highlighting as usual 10 core investment themes that drive many of our market views. More detailed outlooks for the individual asset classes are forthcoming. 1. A wider distribution after the soft landing: Solid growth, higher equities and stronger Dollar in ...

Industry and Company Analysis 1. **Global Economic Outlook** - **US Economic Growth**: The US economy is expected to grow 2.5% in 2025, outperforming consensus expectations and other DM economies for the third year in a row. [2] - **Euro Area GDP**: Cut to a below-consensus 0.8% due to structural headwinds and trade policy uncertainty. [3] - **China GDP**: Cut to 4.5% due to higher US tariffs partially offset by easier macro policies. [3] - **Inflation**: US core PCE inflation expected to slow to 2.4% by late 2025, with a risk of rising to 3% with a 10% across-the-board tariff. [4] 2. **US Economic Policy Changes** - **Trade**: New tariffs on China and autos, with a 3.4pp increase in the effective tariff rate for US imports. [14] - **Immigration**: Net immigration expected to slow to 750k/year. [14] - **Fiscal**: Lower corporate tax for domestic manufacturers to 15% and reinstating more generous corporate incentives. [14] - **Regulation**: Easier approval of energy projects, expanding LNG exports, and reversing restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions. [14] 3. **Impact on US GDP** - **Base Case**: A small hit to growth in 2025 (0.2pp) and a moderate boost in 2026 (0.3pp). [16] - **Risk Case**: Larger negative impulse from across-the-board tariff, with a net drag on growth averaging 1.0pp in 2026. [18] 4. **Impact on Europe and China** - **Euro Area**: Trade policy uncertainty could subtract 0.9% from GDP. [20] - **China**: US tariff increase expected to subtract 0.7pp from growth in 2025. [22] 5. **Global Growth Outlook** - **Global GDP**: Expected to average 2.7% in 2025, with US outperforming relative to consensus. [30] 6. **Inflation and Disinflation** - **US Core PCE Inflation**: Expected to slow to 2.4% by late 2025, with a risk of rising to 3.1% with a 10% across-the-board tariff. [37] - **Disinflation**: Expected to continue across major DM economies, with the US, UK, and Australia likely to cluster around 2½% by late 2025. [45] 7. **Monetary Policy** - **Fed**: Expected to cut rates to 3.25-3.5% with sequential moves through Q1 and a slowdown thereafter. [49] - **ECB**: Expected to continue sequential cuts and lower the terminal forecast to 1.75%. [51] - **BoE**: Expected to cut rates back to 3.75% by end-2025 and a terminal rate of 3.25% in 2026Q2. [51] - **Other DMs**: Expected to see more aggressive cuts in smaller DM central banks. [52] - **EMs**: Expected to see significant room for monetary easing given that policy rates remain far above neutral. [54] 8. **Market Outlook** - **Equities**: Expected to see modest positive returns across key asset classes, with US equities outperforming and EM equities likely to outperform fixed income. [79] - **Bonds**: Expected to see modest positive returns, with US Treasuries and Bunds/Gilts playing an important diversifying role in portfolios. [80] - **Commodities**: Expected to continue to benefit from a positive roll return, with lower contribution from price shifts. [79] 9. **Tail Risks** - **Broader Trade War**: Underpriced risk, particularly for its potential impact on Europe and some non-China EM economies. [67] - **Fiscal Risk**: Increased possibility of additional fiscal expansion and focus on the sustainability of the US public debt profile. [69] - **Inflation Risk**: Short-term inflation risks are two-sided, with short-dated US inflation swaps priced well above the forecast. [69] - **Oil Market**: Risks of breaking the $70-$85/bbl range are growing, with upside tail risk from Iranian supply and downside risk from ample supply and potential demand hurt by broader tariff action. [71] 10. **Investment Strategy** - **Maintain Exposure**: Maintain exposure to robust US economic outlook while protecting against key tail risks. [80] - **Diversification**: Use diversification to address some of the challenges, including US Treasuries, Bunds/Gilts, and mid-cap equities or a more equal-weighted allocation. [80] - **Options**: Use options to provide protection against macro tails, including long USD positions, long USD optionality, and upside in gold and oil. [82]

5 November 2024 | 2:08PM EST Global Markets Analyst The Many Facets of US Fiscal Risk Premia (Marshall/Zu/Abecasis) n The US debt-to-GDP trajectory has shifted materially over the last five years and a range of other factors also justify higher long-end yields. But while long-term Treasury yields and measures of bond term premia sit above pre-pandemic levels, they are hardly extreme by historical standards. n We have previously observed a declining sensitivity of longer-term G10 yields to debt-to-GDP, in pa ...

Flash | 31 Oct 2024 06:00:46 ET │ 13 pages China Cement Analysis of the 2024 Cement Industry Capacity Replacement Regulations CITI'S TAKE The MIIT issued the revised Measures for the Implementation of Capacity Replacement in the Cement and Glass Industries (2024 Edition) recently, which will come into effect on Nov 1, 2024. We compared and summarized the key differences between 2024 Edition and previous 2021 Edition in cement management. The 2024 Edition of the implementation measures introduces stricter co ...

28 October 2024 | 12:09AM EDT _ US Economics Analyst 2025 Housing Outlook: Resilient but Rangebound (Walker) n Residential investment started 2024 with a bang—jumping 14% annualized in Q1 on the back of sharply lower mortgage rates—but the subsequent rebound in rates reined in activity. The prospect that long-term rates will remain elevated continues to present a headwind to the economy's most interest rate sensitive sector. In this Analyst, we summarize our outlook for the housing market for the rest of th ...

AI Neocloud Playbook and Anatomy AI 新云剧本与剖析 DYLAN PATEL DANIEL NISHBALL AND 迪伦·帕特尔 丹尼尔·尼什博尔 和 H100 Rental Price Cuts, AI Neocloud Giants and Emerging Neoclouds, H100 Cluster Bill of Materials and Cluster Deployment, Day to Day Operations, Cost Optimizations, Cost of Ownership and Returns H100 租赁价格下调，AI 新云巨头与新兴新云企业，H100 集群物料清单与集群 部署，日常运营，成本优化，拥有成本与回报 OCT 03, 2024 2024 年 10 月 3 日 ∙ PAID 已支付 Share 分享 15 The rise of the AI Neoclouds has captivated the attention of the entire computing industry. Everyone is usin ...