February 10, 2025 07:06 AM GMT China Autos & Shared Mobility | Asia Pacific Renewed promotions in February…likely not even the beginning of the end While overall January sales were better than feared following the trade-in subsidy extension, most EV players either extended or widened promotions from Jan in the hope of locking in more orders during the low season in 1Q. We summarize January's price trends and key promotion changes in February. We summarize the price trends (unweighted avg.) of models from ke ...

The news: Changan reported on Feb 9 that its ParentCo is planning a restructuring with other central SOEs, which could lead to a change of controlling shareholders (ultimate ownership should remain the same, being the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission). This news echoes a similar announcement by Dongfeng, indicating a potential merger between the companies' ParentCos (or could include other central SOEs). Initial thoughts on implications: The restructure, if it materializes, would ...

Global Automation: The latest demand and market share trends in China (YE 2024) Jay Huang, Ph.D. +852 2918 5746 jay.huang@bernsteinsg.com 6 February 2025 Asian Industrial Technology Weibin Liang, Ph.D. +852 2918 5242 weibin.liang@bernsteinsg.com Dien Wang, Ph.D. +852 2918 5743 dien.wang@bernsteinsg.com We present the latest trends in the Chinese industrial automation industry up to 4Q24. Our readers can download the data here for Robots and here for Other Automation Products. FA demand recovery started in 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Sell rating on TUHU Car Inc [6][87]. Core Insights - The Q424 data indicates that TUHU and JD Auto accelerated store expansion, particularly in high-tier cities, while Tmall Auto's store count in tier-4 cities decreased, suggesting declining profitability for franchisees [2][3]. - Competition among TUHU, Tmall Auto, and JD Auto has intensified, with significant overlap in store locations, leading to limited differentiation and weaker marginal benefits from new store openings [4][5]. - The report highlights that over 85% of JD Auto and TUHU stores compete with themselves within a 15-minute drive, indicating increasing cannibalization [5][41]. Summary by Sections Store Footprint - TUHU leads with approximately 6,600 stores, followed by Tmall Auto with around 2,100 and JD Auto with about 1,900 stores. The expansion in Q424 saw JD Auto and TUHU adding over 210 and 160 stores respectively, while Tmall Auto only added 35 stores [3][10]. - The majority of new store openings (over 60%) were concentrated in tier-1 and tier-2 cities, with a notable decline in Tmall Auto's presence in tier-4 cities due to economic pressures [18][19]. Competition - The report notes a significant overlap in store locations, with an average of 4.6 JD Auto and Tmall Auto stores reachable within a 15-minute drive from a TUHU store, indicating high competition [4][22]. - Nearly 65% of TUHU stores compete with at least one JD Auto store within a 15-minute drive, reflecting the competitive landscape in high-tier cities [37][38]. Cannibalization - The cannibalization share for JD Auto and TUHU stores is over 85%, with the number of competing stores increasing significantly in Q424, suggesting that new store openings are not yielding the expected benefits [5][43]. - The report indicates that the internal competition is intensifying, with the number of stores competing with another store of the same brand increasing close to or outpacing net store additions [5][43]. Stock Implications - The report suggests that TUHU's pace of store openings is likely to slow down, which may negatively impact its topline growth and margin expansion [6].

10 Jan 2025 06:28:21 ET │ 10 pages Effects of 2024 Old-for-New Policy — (1) National scrap replacement met Cui's expectations. According to Cui, 2024 national scrap replacement declarations reached 2.9mn units by 31-Dec-2024, with FY volume likely reaching 3mn after accounting for pending approvals by 11-Jan-2025. Daily activity slowed to c.6k units in the final week of Dec-24, as consumers had acted early to meet 2024 policy deadlines. Cui estimates the program's total subsidy at Rmb60-70bn (c. Rmb20k/unit ...

10 January 2025 | 6:04AM EST US Autos & Industrial Tech CES 2025 takeaways At CES we spoke with management teams and/or attended product demonstrations from numerous companies including Mobileye, Aptiv, Visteon, Gentex, Innoviz, Luminar, Ambarella, Continental, BlackBerry, and Jabil. Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. ...

Summary of Shenzhen Inovance Technology Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shenzhen Inovance Technology (Ticker: 300124.SZ) - **Industry**: Automation and New Energy Vehicles (NEV) - **Market Capitalization**: Rmb153,107 million - **Current Share Price**: Rmb57.20 (as of January 9, 2025) - **Price Target**: Rmb65.00, indicating a 14% upside potential [5][8] Key Insights from the Conference Call Automation Market Outlook - Management expects the automation market to stabilize in 2025, driven by: - Ongoing consumption stimulus - Equipment upgrades - Energy-saving transformations - Emerging market demands, including humanoid robots and electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicles [1][2] - New energy vehicle (NEV) orders in Q4 2024 accounted for approximately 10% of total orders, indicating stabilization [1] Product Development and Launches - Inovance plans to launch humanoid robot component products in 2025, focusing on upper limb applications [2] - The NEV powertrain business is projected to grow faster than the industry average, with the top five clients contributing around 60% of total NEV revenue [2] International Expansion - The company aims to accelerate overseas growth to 20-30% year-on-year in 2025, up from approximately 20% in 2024 [3] - Key markets include Southeast Asia, Korea, Turkey, and the Middle East, with negotiations ongoing for a potential plant in the US [3] Financial Projections - **Revenue Growth**: - 2024 Estimated Revenue: Rmb38,754 million - 2025 Estimated Revenue: Rmb46,408 million - 2026 Estimated Revenue: Rmb55,083 million [5] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024 Estimated EPS: Rmb1.87 - 2025 Estimated EPS: Rmb2.17 - 2026 Estimated EPS: Rmb2.49 [5] Risks and Challenges Upside Risks - A stronger-than-expected macroeconomic environment could boost demand for automation products [9] - Enhanced sales of electric powertrains equipped with Inovance's EV control systems in 2024 [9] Downside Risks - Potential failure to develop high-end automation products, leading to declining average selling prices (ASP) for low-end products due to competition [10] - Larger-than-expected declines in gross margins due to raw material price increases [10] Conclusion Shenzhen Inovance Technology is positioned for growth in the automation and NEV sectors, with a focus on product innovation and international expansion. However, the company faces risks related to product development and market competition that could impact its financial performance.

Company-Specific Information * **Product Rollout**: Guangzhou Automobile Group (GAC) plans to launch 6 new products under its Aion and Trumpchi brands in 2025. This includes 3 brand new products and 3 facelifts for Aion, and 4 new products for Trumpchi. Sales contribution from these new products is expected to start from Q1 2024. [1] * **Huawei Partnership**: GAC has partnered with Huawei for product design and customer management. The first B-class luxury SUV under this partnership is expected to be launched in the second half of 2026. GAC aims to launch 4-5 new products in the near future, which management expects will support stable annual sales of 400-500k units. [2] * **GAC-Honda JV**: GAC-Honda's decision to reduce total capacity in 2024 resulted in a one-off impairment cost of approximately Rmb1.5bn for the joint venture. However, this move improved the total capacity utilization to a healthier level of around 70%, similar to the utilization rate of GAC-Toyota. Management expects both joint ventures to achieve decent profitability at this level of production. [3] Industry Information * **Economic Sanctions**: The research notes that the data and analysis are for informational purposes only and do not represent Morgan Stanley's view on the potential application of sanctions to any entities or securities mentioned. Users are responsible for ensuring compliance with applicable sanctions. [4] * **Export Controls**: The research mentions that certain items covered by the Export Administration Regulations (EAR) may be subject to export control restrictions. Users are responsible for ensuring compliance with applicable export control laws. [5] * **Industry View**: The research provides a detailed analysis of the China Autos & Shared Mobility industry, including stock ratings, price targets, and industry views. [7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78]

Jay Huang, Ph.D. +852 2918 5746 jay.huang@bernsteinsg.com Weibin Liang, Ph.D. +852 2918 5242 weibin.liang@bernsteinsg.com Dien Wang, Ph.D. +852 2918 5743 dien.wang@bernsteinsg.com We launch a new monthly series to timely report Chinese automation companies' orders in the most recent month. Complementing the Monthly Barometer, where broad industry indicators are presented for a comprehensive view, the Pulse Check exclusively uses the high-frequency data and comments from industry players to show trends most ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 8 January 2025 Asian Autos Chinese Autos: 2025 Outlook. The year of deepening rifts — Few winners and many losers. Eunice Lee, CFA +852 2918 5737 eunice.lee@bernsteinsg.com Yipin Cai, CFA +852 2918 7896 yipin.cai@bernsteinsg.com Frankie Fong +852 2123 2637 frankie.fong@bernsteinsg.com We expect the Chinese autos industry to see 1% volume growth for 2025, and reach c.27.5mn units, comprising c.22.1mn units (-1%) for the domestic market and c.5.4mn units (+10%) for expo ...