14 Nov 2024 23:04:40 ET │ 10 pages China Auto Manufacturers Expert Call Takeaways: Guangzhou Auto Show Preview CITI'S TAKE We hosted a call with industry expert Mr. Song Meng (independent auto journalist), who shared his sales expectation of various new models and outlook on auto stimulus. See below for our detailed takeaways. BYD Fangchengbao 8 — Mr. Song noted that BYD's Fangchengbao 8 (priced at Rmb379.8k–407.8k) takes a unique approach as a luxury SUV with off-road capabilities, positioned as a more rug ...

Summary of the Conference Call on China Auto Manufacturers Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the Chinese auto manufacturing industry, particularly electric vehicles (EVs) and new energy vehicles (NEVs) [11][28]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Order Intake Trends**: - Overall order intake for the auto industry showed solid growth of 5-10% week-over-week from November 4th to 10th, 2024, indicating a positive trend in consumer demand [11][13]. - BYD's order intake for the same period was between 110,000 to 115,000 units, with a month-to-date total of 150,000 to 160,000 units, expected to exceed 500,000 units for November 2024 [13][17]. 2. **Production Capacity and Market Dynamics**: - Production capacity is anticipated to be a critical factor for order intake, especially for mainstream models priced below RMB 200,000, as consumers aim for delivery before the end of 2024 to benefit from old-for-new subsidies [11][13]. - The penetration of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) in the mainstream market is expected to influence purchasing decisions significantly in 2025 [11][28]. 3. **Individual Company Performance**: - **Li Auto**: November 2024 order intake was 19,000 units, with expectations to reach 60,000 units by the end of the month [13]. - **Nio**: October 2024 order intake was 18,000 to 19,000 units, affected by a RMB 10,000 incentive cut. Orders rebounded to 5,000 units in the first week of November [13][19]. - **Xpeng**: Last week's order intake was 45,000 units, with expectations to exceed 30,000 units in December 2024 [13][16]. - **Huawei Harmony**: Recorded 9,000 to 10,000 units in the last week, with the Luxeed R7 accumulating 30,000 orders, surpassing its production capacity [13][19]. - **Zeekr**: Last week's order intake was 5,500 units, with expectations to exceed 20,000 units in November and December [13][19]. - **Leapmotor**: Last week's order intake was 10,000 units, with expectations for both C10 and C16 models to achieve 10,000 monthly sales in December [13][18]. 4. **Market Competition and Pricing Strategies**: - A year-end price war is deemed unlikely due to a healthy order backlog across the sector, with OEMs focusing on timely deliveries rather than discounts [19][35]. - The average trade-in car prices are currently between RMB 170,000 to 180,000, potentially exceeding RMB 200,000 in top-tier cities [31]. 5. **Future Outlook**: - NEV penetration is projected to reach 65-70% by mid-2025, primarily at the expense of traditional luxury and joint venture brands that lack adequate NEV offerings [29][30]. - The expiration of local trade-in subsidies may lead to a seasonal dip in sales in January 2025, but a rebound is expected by the end of March due to new model launches [19][20]. Additional Important Insights - The shift of large dealership groups towards NEV brands indicates a growing concern about the future of internal combustion engine vehicles [29]. - Companies like Geely and Changan are adopting focused strategies to challenge BYD's dominance, particularly in the sub-RMB 200,000 segment [32][33]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with brands like Li Auto needing to adapt to pressures from rivals while maintaining their market position [46]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the Chinese auto manufacturing industry, particularly in the context of electric and new energy vehicles.

Summary of China Auto Manufacturers Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Auto Manufacturers** industry, particularly the performance of **New Energy Vehicles (NEVs)** and traditional **Internal Combustion Engine (ICE)** vehicles during the period from October 28 to November 3, 2024 [1][10]. Key Findings 1. **NEV Retail Sales Penetration**: - Weekly NEV retail penetration stabilized at **53.7%**, an increase of **7.5 percentage points (ppt)** month-over-month (MoM), although it declined by **1.5 ppt** week-over-week (WoW) [1]. - This suggests that NEV penetration may exceed expectations in November [1]. 2. **BEV Recovery**: - Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) saw a rapid recovery in the first week of November with a **MoM increase of 80%**. Other categories included Extended Range Electric Vehicles (EREVs) at **54%**, Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) at **35%**, and ICE vehicles at **19%** [1]. 3. **PHEV Demand Momentum**: - Insights from discussions with manufacturers like BYD and Geely indicate that PHEV manufacturers are ramping up capacity in **4Q24**, with lower risks of demand being heavily front-loaded into **1Q25** [1]. - Potential extension of the old-for-new stimulus by the Chinese government could facilitate the conversion of locked-in PHEV orders into retail sales in **1Q25** [1]. 4. **ICE Inventory Levels**: - Higher inventory levels among ICE brands may lead to increased sales volatility towards year-end, potentially resulting in weaker demand in **1Q25** compared to NEV models [2]. Export Market Insights - Chinese brands held a **6.6%** market share in the passenger vehicle (PV) segment outside of China as of September 2024, reflecting a **2.6 ppt** year-over-year (YoY) increase [4]. - The report suggests that any potential US tariff policy could complicate the global auto supply chain, benefiting Chinese brands in markets like South America, the Middle East, ASEAN, and Oceania due to lower costs [4]. - Top picks in the sector include **BYD**, **Geely**, **Yutong**, and **Brilliance**, which is noted for its high yield and attractive risk-reward potential [4]. Market Share Trends - Japanese brands experienced declines in market share, with Toyota down **1.2 ppt** YoY to **7.0%**, Honda down **1.8 ppt** YoY to **3.8%**, and Nissan down **0.2 ppt** YoY to **2.8%** [4]. - German brands also saw declines, with Volkswagen down **1.1 ppt** YoY to **9.4%** and Audi down **0.3 ppt** YoY to **2.8%** [4]. - US brands faced similar declines, with SAIC GM down **1.8 ppt** YoY to **2.5%** and Changan Ford down **0.2 ppt** YoY to **0.5%** [4]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring government policies and market dynamics that could impact the NEV and ICE segments in China and abroad [1][4]. - Analysts express a cautious optimism regarding the NEV market's growth trajectory, particularly in light of potential government incentives and the ongoing transition towards electric vehicles [1][4]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the China Auto Manufacturers industry.

Flash | 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 04 Nov 2024 10:59:36 ET │ 11 pages Li Auto (LI.O) Li Auto incentives updates (Oct version) CITI'S TAKE By end-Oct, Li Auto narrowed its car purchase incentives across L-series while lifting total incentives for Mega. L6 end-Oct incentives were reduced by -11.3% (vs. early-Oct) to Rmb15.9k, with cash incentives down -16% to Rmb13.1k. L7/L8 saw total incentives cut -15% to Rmb12.4k by end-Oct, with cash incentives decreasing by -29.4% to Rmb9.6k. L9's cash incentives down ...

A c t i o n | 28 Oct 2024 16:33:07 ET │ 13 pages Joyson Electronic (600699.SS) 3Q24 Earnings Missed; Auto Safety New Order Bookings Slowed Down CITI'S TAKE Joyson reported muted 3Q24 results with revenue sliding -2% YoY (+2% QoQ) to Rmb14,056mn and net profit edging up 1% YoY (-8% QoQ) to Rmb305mn, missing Citi and consensus expectations. The weak prints are primarily attributable to 1) softer sales volume trends for both segments due to the broad global auto demand slowdown, and 2) sharp increase in effect ...

智谱 Autoglm 强势出圈，AI Agent 深度报告再梳理 20241027 摘要 | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | • | 当前时点重视 AI 检测和 AI 应用板块的投资机会主要有两大原 ...

公务证券传媒互联网分析师赵良久然后非常感谢各位投资人呃今天晚上来参加我们这场呃关于AI Agent的一个专题的一个汇报呃这个汇报的出发点呢其实主要是来自于这周我们看到字谱的AutoJam其实是有一个比较强势的出圈的投资人关注比较多所以我们就在这个时点呢基于呃这个事件呢做了一个专题的分享那今天的话晚上我们分享内容会比较的呃这个丰满了主要有四块啊第一块首先呃我来简单讲一下为什么这个时点 要重视AI Agent和AI应用板块的投资机会大概时间在5到10分钟然后我们想在大概有20到30分钟的时间邀请一位AI产业的专家来展示一下 演示一下智普AutoGLM的一些功能和用法然后也会用PPT来详细分享一下AutoGLM的一些核心的原理 然后我们团队的Corona同学会分享一篇关于AI Agent的深度报告我们在过去其实花了比较多的时间在AI Agent这个领域里面做了一些研究和跟踪我们也是借这个时点的话重新去梳理一下我们对AI Agent的一些观点最后的话大概5分钟左右的时间我们会对相关的一些投资标的进行一些梳理首先的话我想先简单的开头然后为什么在这个时点我们还是非常建议各位投资人去重视AI Agent和AI应用板块的投资 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [1][2][3][4] Core Viewpoints - Audi is focusing on a progressive premium positioning, distinguishing itself from the luxury segment and reducing series complexity [9] - The company aims to re-establish its technological leadership with a clear path for product differentiation [10] - Audi is transitioning to a focused BEV (Battery Electric Vehicle) lineup, targeting premium market sweet spots and iconic models [11][12] - The new PPE (Premium Platform Electric) and PPC (Premium Platform Combustion) platforms enable major portfolio updates in both BEV and ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) vehicles [21][35][52] - Audi is leveraging partnerships in China to accelerate BEV and ICV (Intelligent Connected Vehicle) development, with production expected to start by the end of 2024 [16] - The company has implemented significant decisions since September 2023, including simplified product launches and a defined long-term target portfolio [19] Product Portfolio - Audi plans to have 9 core models in target segments, with strong coverage in the premium market sweet spot [12] - The Q6 e-tron on the PPE platform is the first step in a broader BEV model initiative [12] - Audi is transitioning from ICE to BEV with a new ICE generation, such as the A5 on the PPC platform, allowing flexibility based on market conditions [12] - The PPE platform offers significant improvements in electric drive unit performance, energy consumption, and cost reduction compared to the first-generation BEV [27][28] - The battery system in PPE models has higher efficiency and enhanced performance, with predictive conditioning and optimized battery management [29][30] - PPE models feature best-in-class charging capabilities, with up to 270 kW charging power and superior range [25][32][34] Technology and Innovation - The E3 1.2 electronic architecture enables future-proof functionality, including over-the-air updates and advanced driver assistance systems [36][39][42] - Audi is introducing next-generation AR (Augmented Reality) head-up displays, offering an increased field of view and improved imaging [44] - The AI-powered digital assistant integrates over 800 functions, including ChatGPT integration, enhancing the customer experience [45] - The PPE platform supports advanced safety and driving assistance features, such as adaptive cruise control, lane change assist, and proactive passenger protection [42] Market Strategy - Audi is targeting global customer segments with the Q6 e-tron and A6 e-tron families, with projected lifecycle sales volumes across Europe, Germany, the USA, Canada, and overseas markets [49] - The company is developing China-specific models with longer wheelbases, localized digital offerings, and design features, with production starting in Changchun by 2025 [50] - Audi is reducing complexity in its product offerings by transitioning from single options to focused option packages, improving customer convenience and production efficiency [70] Financial and Operational Efficiency - The PPC platform reduces platform costs by up to 60% through strict interlocking and synergetic development [55] - Audi is optimizing engine selection to cover customer needs with lower complexity, including PHEV (Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle) models that will be introduced later in the product lifecycle [59][61] - The company is leveraging scale and flexibility in site allocation to achieve cost efficiencies and higher positioning in the market [71]