Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Expanded ASEAN Guide on AI Governance and Ethics focuses on generative AI (Gen AI) and outlines the opportunities and risks associated with its adoption in the ASEAN region, emphasizing the need for responsible practices and policy actions to ensure safety and promote benefits [2][19] Summary by Sections Executive Summary - The document serves as a supplement to the ASEAN Guide on AI Governance and Ethics (2024), providing policy considerations for Gen AI and recommending actions for its responsible adoption [2][4] Gen AI Risks - The report identifies six key risks associated with Gen AI, including mistakes and anthropomorphism, factually inaccurate responses, deepfakes, infringement of intellectual property rights, privacy issues, and the propagation of embedded biases [5][19] Policy Recommendations - A range of policy recommendations is defined for ASEAN to promote trusted and responsible use of Gen AI, emphasizing a coordinated, pro-innovation regional response [4][21] Use Cases - The guide illustrates the implementation of its policy recommendations through four detailed use cases involving public and private institutions in ASEAN that align with AI governance and ethics [7][8] Guiding Principles - The report outlines guiding principles for fostering trust in AI, which include transparency, fairness, security, human-centricity, and privacy, all of which are crucial for the ethical design and deployment of Gen AI systems [26][39][43] Accountability and Integrity - Emphasizes the need for human accountability in the design, development, and deployment of Gen AI systems, highlighting the importance of governance mechanisms for oversight [49][50] Robustness and Reliability - Stresses that Gen AI systems should be robust enough to handle errors and unexpected inputs, and that developers should create measurable benchmarks for acceptable outcomes [52][53]

Summary of Key Points from Goldman Sachs Macro at a Glance Industry Overview - **Aluminum and Copper Price Forecasts**: The 3, 6, and 12-month price forecasts for aluminum have been raised to $2640, $2678, and $2733 per ton respectively, while copper forecasts are now $9600, $9740, and $10650 per ton, up from previous forecasts of $2500 and $9210 per ton. This adjustment is attributed to recent stimulus measures in China [1][1][1]. - **Gold Price Forecasts**: The 3-month gold price forecast has been increased to $2790 per ounce from $2750, but the 6 and 12-month forecasts have been lowered to $2860 and $2980 per ounce from $2900 and $3040 respectively, following a recent rally in gold prices [2][2][2]. Economic Growth Projections - **Global GDP Growth**: A global real GDP growth of 2.7% year-over-year is expected in 2024, driven by real household income growth, a gradual recovery in manufacturing, and continued rate cuts. Core inflation is projected to fall below 3% by the end of 2024 and converge towards 2% by the end of 2025 [3][3][3]. - **US Economic Outlook**: The US is expected to see above-consensus real GDP growth of 2.5% in 2024, supported by consumer spending growth, easing financial conditions, and a rebound in inventory investment. Core PCE inflation is anticipated to be 2.7% year-over-year by December 2024, with an unemployment rate projected to end 2024 at 4.1% [4][4][4]. - **Euro Area Growth**: The Euro area is projected to have a real GDP growth of 0.8% year-over-year in 2024, with expectations of firm real income growth and diminishing monetary policy drag. Core inflation is expected to slow to 2.5% year-over-year by December 2024 [6][6][6]. - **China's Economic Forecast**: China's real GDP growth is expected to be 4.9% year-over-year in 2024, bolstered by strong exports and significant policy easing measures, despite challenges such as weak domestic demand and a downturn in the property market [9][9][9]. Monetary Policy Insights - **Federal Reserve Actions**: The Federal Reserve is expected to implement consecutive 25 basis point cuts from November 2024 through June 2025, targeting a terminal rate range of 3.25% to 3.5% [5][5][5]. - **European Central Bank Expectations**: The European Central Bank is anticipated to deliver a 25 basis point cut in December 2024, followed by sequential cuts until the policy rate reaches 2% by June 2025 [8][8][8]. Geopolitical Considerations - **US Election and Middle East Conflict**: There is significant uncertainty surrounding the US election, which could have important policy implications, particularly regarding trade and fiscal policy. Additionally, ongoing conflicts in the Middle East could lead to substantial increases in oil prices if escalated [10][10][10]. Additional Insights - **Inflation Trends**: Core inflation is expected to decline due to soft core goods inflation, falling shelter inflation, and slowing services inflation and wage growth, reflecting an improved supply-demand balance in the global economy [3][3][3]. - **Investment Considerations**: Investors are advised to consider the report as one of many factors in their investment decisions, highlighting the importance of a comprehensive analysis of market conditions and forecasts [6][6][6].

FDI Trends in ASEAN - FDI inflows to ASEAN reached a record $230 billion in 2023, marking the third consecutive year of increase despite a 10% decline in global FDI [35] - The top five industries accounted for 86% of inflows, with financial activities seeing a 53% increase to $92 billion [36] - Manufacturing FDI remained significant at $50 billion, with greenfield investment projects in manufacturing more than doubling in 2023 [39] - The United States and China were the top investors, with US FDI more than doubling to $74 billion, while Chinese FDI rose by nearly 20% to $17 billion [39][88] Renewable Energy and EV Investments - Investment in renewable energy-related industries attracted an average of $27 billion annually in greenfield projects from 2020-2023, accounting for 25% of total greenfield investments [40] - Investment in renewable energy generation rose from an annual average of $11 billion (2015-2019) to $14 billion (2020-2023), with two-thirds focused on solar and wind power [41] - Chinese companies are increasingly investing in the EV supply chain, with significant projects in battery production and EV assembly across ASEAN [57][138] Manufacturing and High-Value Services - Manufacturing FDI in ASEAN doubled during the AEC 2025 period, reaching an all-time high of $73 billion in 2022 [50] - FDI in high-value-added services, including R&D, grew by 56% during AEC 2025, with significant investments in professional, scientific, and technical services [62] - The semiconductor and electronics industries saw greenfield investment announcements more than double during AEC 2025, with an average of $5.6 billion annually [56] Digital Economy and Infrastructure - International investment in the digital economy, including e-commerce, fintech, and digital infrastructure, rose significantly, with greenfield investment in communication and data processing growing fivefold to $4.4 billion during AEC 2025 [58] - Digital infrastructure such as 5G networks and data centers are becoming critical for regional connectivity and Industry 4.0 development [58] Chinese Investment in ASEAN - Chinese FDI in ASEAN has grown significantly, with manufacturing investment increasing at a 33% CAGR since 2020, driven by industries such as automotive, electronics, and renewables [122][138] - Chinese companies are also heavily involved in non-equity investments, including international contracts for infrastructure development, with $290 billion worth of construction activities in ASEAN from 2010-2023 [151] - The ASEAN-China FTA and RCEP have been key drivers of Chinese investment, with many companies planning to expand operations in ASEAN due to market access and regional integration benefits [149][153]