Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious investment outlook for the short term, particularly in domestic-oriented sectors such as banking, coal, telecommunications, media, and domestic consumer services, which are expected to be more resilient to geopolitical tensions [1][7]. Core Insights - Current investor sentiment in China is heavily influenced by short-term concerns related to geopolitical tensions and expectations of government fiscal stimulus, despite doubts about the effectiveness of such measures in supporting the real economy and private sector [1][3]. - The outlook for the Chinese technology sector is mixed due to potential U.S. sanctions, with institutional investors expressing concern; however, domestic small and medium-sized tech and semiconductor companies are seeing stock price increases due to anticipated localization efforts [1][5]. - The potential for a second Trump administration poses greater challenges for China compared to the first term, affecting trade, technology, capital markets, and talent acquisition, with fears of reversing the free flow of capital, goods, and human resources [1][6]. Summary by Sections Short-term Investment Opportunities - In the next 3-6 months, large internet companies with strong fundamentals and balance sheets may present investment opportunities if market conditions lead to sell-offs and stock price declines [2][7]. - The Asian markets may show greater resilience compared to ADRs, especially if geopolitical tensions escalate further [4][7]. Geopolitical and Policy Impact - The current geopolitical climate and policy expectations are significantly affecting investor sentiment in China, with a shift towards short-term developments even among long-term investors [3]. - The Chinese government's strategy appears reactive, needing to assess U.S. policies before formulating responses, which may delay visible improvements in fundamentals until earnings reports are released next year [4]. Sector Performance - Domestic-oriented industries such as banking, coal, telecommunications, media, and domestic consumer services are recommended for short-term investments due to their strong resistance to geopolitical tensions [1][7]. - Monitoring China's policy responses and identifying beneficiaries of stimulus measures will be crucial in the coming months [2][7].

Bond Market Overview - As of September 30, 2024, the total bond market in mainland China reached CNY 169.06 trillion, an increase of CNY 13.37 trillion since the beginning of the year[2] - The total issuance of various bonds in the first three quarters of 2024 was CNY 60.0 trillion, representing a year-on-year growth of 13%[3] Bond Issuance Breakdown - Interest rate bonds issued amounted to CNY 21.0 trillion, a 7% increase year-on-year, with government bonds up 29% and local government bonds down 5%[3] - Credit bonds issuance reached CNY 15.3 trillion, growing by 5% compared to the previous year[3] - Interbank certificates of deposit totaled CNY 23.8 trillion, marking a 25% increase year-on-year[3] Major Bond Categories - The issuance of interest rate bonds included 2,365 issues totaling CNY 209,836.1 billion, with government bonds at CNY 97,892.7 billion and local government bonds at CNY 66,875.8 billion[3] - Corporate bonds saw a total issuance of CNY 29,026.3 billion, with a slight decrease of 2% year-on-year[3] Underwriting Rankings - In the bank underwriting rankings for local government bonds, the top three were: Bank of China (CNY 11,245.0 billion), Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (CNY 10,773.5 billion), and Industrial Bank (CNY 10,150.7 billion)[8] - For securities firms, the top three underwriters (excluding local bonds) were: CITIC Securities (CNY 10,538.1 billion), CITIC Jianzhong (CNY 8,035.2 billion), and Guotai Junan (CNY 6,898.8 billion)[15] Cost of Issuance - The overall issuance cost in the first three quarters of 2024 showed a downward trend, with the CCB-Wind interbank bond issuance index indicating a recent decline[5] ESG Bond Underwriting - In the ESG bond market, Bank of China led with CNY 537.6 billion in underwriting, followed by Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (CNY 250.2 billion) and Industrial Bank (CNY 241.8 billion)[70]

Group 1: Top Underwriters - CITIC Securities leads with an underwriting amount of 10,538.1 million yuan, maintaining its position[1] - CITIC Construction Investment ranks second with 8,035.2 million yuan, also holding steady[1] - Guotai Junan is third with 6,898.8 million yuan, showing no change in ranking[1] Group 2: Notable Changes - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) is fourth with 5,245.5 million yuan, unchanged in rank[1] - Huatai Securities ranks fifth with 4,401.8 million yuan, maintaining its position[1] - China Merchants Securities moved up to sixth place with 2,902.6 million yuan, an increase of 2 ranks[1] Group 3: Additional Rankings - GF Securities is seventh with 2,649.9 million yuan, rising by 3 ranks[1] - Ping An Securities is eighth with 2,602.4 million yuan, dropping by 2 ranks[1] - Shenwan Hongyuan is ninth with 2,359.5 million yuan, falling by 3 ranks[1] Group 4: Lower Rankings - Haitong Securities is tenth with 2,331.0 million yuan, decreasing by 1 rank[1] - Guosen Securities ranks eleventh with 1,879.3 million yuan, holding steady[1] - Dongfang Securities is twelfth with 1,796.6 million yuan, dropping by 1 rank[1]