Microsoft forms second death cross in a month; Will MSFT finally crack?

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) has entered a precarious position in the stock market as indicated by recent technical signals, particularly the appearance of the "death cross" which suggests a potential price drop [2][3]. Technical Analysis - MSFT shares have shown two instances of the death cross in November, a bearish indicator where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average [2]. - Historically, the last occurrence of the death cross led to a 25% decline in MSFT shares over eight months [3]. - Despite the bearish signals, MSFT stock is currently 2% higher than the price at the first death cross in November, rising from approximately $410.37 to $418.63 [3]. Market Context - The stock market experienced significant boosts following major political events, such as Donald Trump's election victory, which had a positive impact on MSFT shares [4]. - The latest death cross on November 25 is expected to lead to a decline due to the weak current trend and the absence of positive external catalysts [5]. Analyst Sentiment - Despite the negative technical indicators, Wall Street analysts maintain a bullish outlook on MSFT, with many upgrading their forecasts in November [6]. - Prominent firms like RBC Capital, UBS, and Daiwa Securities have rated MSFT as a "buy," with price targets ranging from $476 to $520, indicating a potential upside of at least 13.7% [6]. - Recent estimates from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Jeffries also classify MSFT as a "buy," with Wedbush providing a high forecast of $550 [7].