Nvidia(US:NVDA) Finboldยท2024-12-25 19:27Nvidia Stock Analysis Core View - Nvidia's stock price faces potential risks, including market saturation and geopolitical challenges, such as antitrust probes in China, which caused the stock to drop below the $140 support zone [1] - Despite risks, Nvidia's stock could reach a new record high in Q1 2025 if it surpasses the $145 mark, driven by strong fundamentals and retail investor interest [3][7] - The stock has shown resilience, maintaining a year-to-date return of over 190% and staying above the $130 level [4][8] Stock Performance and Targets - Nvidia's stock closed at $140.22 on December 24, with a year-to-date return exceeding 190% [4] - A decisive break above the $145 level could confirm the end of the recent downtrend, potentially leading to a rally to $170 in Q1 2025 [5][9] - Failure to maintain momentum above $145 could result in a drop to $120, where stronger support is expected [6] Retail and Institutional Interest - In 2024, Nvidia was the most bought stock by retail traders, with $29.8 billion in net inflows, surpassing other major securities like SPY, TSLA, and QQQ [11][12] - Retail interest and strong fundamentals, particularly in AI, are expected to drive continued investor interest in 2025 [7][12] AI and Chip Dominance - Nvidia's AI chips, particularly the Hopper series (H100 and H200), remain central to future investor interest [12] - The next-generation Blackwell chips are expected to scale production significantly in FY2026, contributing $5-$6 billion in upcoming quarters [12] Market Position and Competitors - Nvidia's leadership in AI and strong growth trajectory, supported by its data center and AI chip businesses, make the $170 target achievable in Q1 2025 [13] - The company's performance is closely watched alongside other major securities like SPY, TSLA, and QQQ, which also saw significant net inflows in 2024 [11][12]