Analyst updates Tesla stock price target

Tesla's Stock Performance and Analyst Outlook - Tesla missed Q4 2024 consensus delivery target but is projected to soar by 35% due to significant growth opportunities [1] - TSLA stock closed at $410.44 on January 3, up 8.22% for the day and over 5% year-to-date [1] - Canaccord Genuity analyst raised Tesla's stock price target from $298 to $404, reflecting a 35% upside and a 40-times multiple on 2027 non-GAAP EPS estimate of $10.11 [2][3] - Tesla is positioned alongside mega-cap tech stocks like Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, and Nvidia, which trade at a median of 23 times 2027 EPS but have slower revenue growth [4] Tesla's Delivery and Sales Performance - Tesla delivered 495,570 vehicles in Q4 2024, bringing total annual deliveries to 1.79 million, a 1.1% drop from 2023 [6] - Global annual sales declined for the first time in at least nine years, with a 2.3% increase in Q4 failing to offset a slow start to 2024 [5] - Despite offering 0% financing, free charging, and low-priced leases, demand for EVs slowed globally [6] Challenges and Market Dynamics - Regulatory changes, including the expiration of the Clean Vehicle Credit and reduced zero-emission vehicle credits, could cost Tesla $3.2 billion, or 40% of its 2024 EBIT estimate [9] - Tesla faces intense competition in China, with BYD reporting a 12.1% rise in EV sales, reaching 1.76 million units [13] - Tesla achieved record sales of over 657,000 vehicles in China in 2024, driven by discounts, reflecting an 8.8% year-over-year increase [13] - The company faces significant challenges in the U.S. and Europe, including reduced subsidies and shifting market dynamics [14] Future Outlook and Strategic Vision - Tesla's future growth opportunities lie in electric vehicles, autonomy, artificial intelligence, energy storage, and robotics [3] - The company is viewed as a leading disruptive technology global player, not just an EV firm [10] - Tesla's ability to adapt under the Trump administration, particularly in areas like autonomous driving and AI, will be crucial [11] - The potential removal of EV subsidies could affect Tesla's profit margins but may also give the company an advantage over competitors [12] Analyst Ratings and Market Sentiment - JPMorgan maintained an Underweight rating on Tesla with a $135 price target, citing risks to 2024 earnings, which have already dropped 36% [8][9] - Wedbush analyst Dan Ives maintained that Tesla stock remains worth buying, emphasizing the company's broader strategic vision [10] - Truist Securities noted that Tesla will face challenges in selling vehicles in the coming months, with additional discounts impacting financial performance [10]