Is this the last Nvidia ‘dip' before a big crash?

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has faced skepticism regarding its stock valuation despite significant revenue growth, with a $3 trillion valuation increase in about two years being perceived as excessive [1] Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Reactions - Following the release of the Chinese AI model DeepSeek, Nvidia's stock experienced a significant decline of 19.02%, dropping from $147.22 to $119.22 between January 23 and February 5 [2] - The efficiency of DeepSeek compared to U.S. models has raised doubts among analysts and investors about Nvidia's ability to maintain its rapid growth [3] Group 2: Forecast Adjustments and Revenue Impact - Morgan Stanley revised its forecast for Nvidia's shipments of the GB200 NVL72 from 30,000-35,000 to 20,000-25,000, with a pessimistic scenario suggesting shipments could fall below 20,000 [4] - If Morgan Stanley's reassessment is accurate, Nvidia's revenue for 2025 could be severely impacted, with potential sales reductions of at least 16.67% and possibly exceeding 42.86% [5] Group 3: Industry Challenges and Tariffs - The challenges facing Nvidia are exacerbated by the U.S. administration's tariffs, including a 10% tariff on China and potential tariffs on Taiwan, which is a key semiconductor manufacturing hub [6][8] - Nvidia, as a customer of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), may face simultaneous supply and demand shocks due to the efficiency of DeepSeek and increased prices of Taiwanese goods [9] Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite current challenges, there is potential for Nvidia to adapt by focusing on TSMC's U.S. foundry, and a true demand shock may not materialize as investors may have misinterpreted the implications of DeepSeek [10] - Higher efficiency from models like DeepSeek may not undermine Western infrastructure investments but could instead accelerate advancements in AI capabilities [11]