Nvidia stock nears ‘implosion mode': What next for NVDA?

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's stock has shown significant volatility despite strong Q4 earnings, with concerns about a potential sustained correction in the near future [1][12]. Financial Performance - Nvidia reported Q4 revenue of $39.33 billion, with a year-over-year increase driven by its AI data center business, which constitutes 91% of total sales [12]. - Data center revenue reached $35.6 billion, marking a 93% year-over-year growth, primarily due to demand for Hopper and next-gen Blackwell AI chips [13]. - Q1 2025 guidance indicates a projected 65% year-over-year growth, a decrease from the previous year's 262% growth [13]. Stock Price Analysis - Nvidia's stock closed at $124.80 at the end of February, up 3.87%, but has seen a nearly 9% decline on a weekly basis [2]. - The stock ended below the 200-day moving average, a bearish signal, marking the second occurrence since January 2023 [3]. - Analysts have indicated that the stock may be in "implosion mode," with a breakdown of its rising trend line and falling below key moving averages [5]. Technical Indicators - The volume profile suggests weaker support below current levels, with potential trading in the range of $90 to $95 [6]. - Analysts have noted increasing selling pressure and a lack of strong support levels, which could lead to a decline to around $25 [9]. Analyst Outlook - Despite the bearish technical outlook, some analysts maintain a bullish perspective, suggesting that Nvidia's stock may rebound after a potential drop, presenting a buying opportunity [8]. - Wall Street analysts have issued seven new buy ratings following the earnings report, with price targets indicating significant upside potential, including a street-high target of $220 from Rosenblatt [17]. Future Prospects - Nvidia's aggressive $33.7 billion share buyback program supports a bullish outlook, with a focus on the upcoming Blackwell chip rollout and competition from custom AI chips [14]. - The company's Blackwell architecture is expected to enhance AI reasoning capabilities, positioning Nvidia favorably in the evolving tech landscape [15].