Could Nvidia stock crash 50% in 2025?

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has experienced significant stock price fluctuations, soaring over 170% in 2024 but facing challenges in 2025, with shares threatening to drop below $100 for the first time since August 2024 [1][3]. Stock Performance - Since the beginning of 2025, Nvidia's stock has declined by 13.55%, currently priced at $116.10, with only a 2.02% increase on the weekly chart despite some positive sessions [2]. - The stock has managed to stay above the critical $100 threshold, but there are concerns about a potential major downturn later in the year [3]. Financial Performance - In the latest quarter, Nvidia reported revenue of $39.33 billion, significantly higher than Intel's $14.26 billion and AMD's $7.66 billion, positioning it as the industry leader [6]. - However, Nvidia's current valuation of $2.8 trillion raises questions when compared to its peers, being 17 times larger than AMD and 31 times larger than Intel [6]. Competitive Landscape - Nvidia faces rising competition, particularly from Chinese companies, which have introduced advanced AI models and technologies that could threaten its market position [10][11]. - The emergence of DeepSeek's R1 model and a new quantum supercomputer from Chinese firms has intensified competition in the technology sector [11]. Operational Challenges - Nvidia's Blackwell assembly line has encountered issues affecting production yields and delivery timelines for major clients, which could impact its growth trajectory [8][9]. - Problems with approximately 0.5% of the new RTX 5090 and RTX 5070 Ti GPUs have been reported, although these issues are claimed to be resolved or not affecting flagship products [9]. Valuation Concerns - The disparity between Nvidia's valuation and its revenue suggests that a significant drop in stock price could occur, with estimates indicating a potential decline of up to 68.23% to a valuation of $896 billion if compared to AMD's valuation [16]. - Despite the challenges, a collapse greater than 50% is considered unlikely under dire circumstances [16].