国金证券：港股创新药“估值扩张弹性、空间”或强于A股 中长期营收亦有望迎来改善

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the valuation expansion elasticity and space of Hong Kong innovative drugs may be stronger than that of A-shares, with expectations for mid-to-long-term revenue improvement [1][4] - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector has a higher "R&D expense ratio" and "overseas revenue proportion," indicating a higher "newness" factor, and its overall net profit growth has consistently outperformed A-shares since H1 2023 [1][4] - The Hong Kong innovative drug industry is more sensitive to U.S. Treasury rates and benefits more from overseas liquidity easing, which positively impacts valuation [1][4] Group 2 - The domestic economic recovery is showing signs of weakening, with a reliance on policy subsidies for consumption recovery facing sustainability challenges [2] - The U.S. "stagflation" risk is increasing, which may lead to a pause in the interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve, potentially accelerating the risk of U.S. economic recession [2] - The innovative drug sector is recommended for investment due to short-term gross margin recovery and long-term revenue improvement, driven by factors such as AI empowerment, a rebound in global pharmaceutical investment activities, and potential fiscal support [3][6]