财通证券：供需格局并驱 民爆景气提振

Core Viewpoint - The demand for civil explosives is expected to increase due to significant infrastructure projects supported by government funding, particularly in the northwest region of China, driven by the "Western Development" policy [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Expansion and Policy Influence - The civil explosive industry is experiencing continuous expansion, with a projected CAGR of 3.6% in main business revenue from 2019 to 2024, driven by rapid growth in blasting service revenue, which is expected to rise from 46.12% of total revenue in 2019 to 78.35% in 2024 [2]. - Profitability in the civil explosive sector is anticipated to improve significantly, with total profits expected to increase by 45.0% in 2023 and 13.0% in 2024 [2]. - Key policy directions include promoting industry consolidation, optimizing product structure, and encouraging production companies to extend into blasting services, leading to an integrated model of research, production, and blasting services [2]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - The civil explosive industry is closely linked to mining and hydropower infrastructure, with high prices for copper and gold expected to sustain mining sector demand, supported by new legislation aimed at enhancing domestic exploration and production [3]. - Traditional infrastructure investment is stable, while green transformation is driving investment in hydropower projects, with installed capacity projected to reach 436 million kilowatts by the end of 2024 and potentially exceed 540 million kilowatts by 2030 [3]. Group 3: Regional Opportunities - In Xinjiang, diverse mineral resources and significant coal production growth (CAGR of 17.9% from 2019 to 2024) are expected to stimulate civil explosive demand, alongside ongoing transportation infrastructure investments [4]. - Tibet's rich mineral reserves and the development of complex construction projects are anticipated to drive demand for civil explosives, particularly in hydropower projects [4]. - Inner Mongolia's abundant coal and rare earth resources, along with the acceleration of a comprehensive transportation network, are expected to support civil explosive demand [4].