东方树叶，撑起农夫山泉

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Nongfu Spring in 2024 was significantly supported by its tea beverage brand, Dongfang Shuye, amidst challenges faced in the packaged drinking water segment, which saw a decline in revenue and profitability [1][3][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Nongfu Spring's total revenue for 2024 was 429 billion RMB, a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year, while net profit rose by only 0.4% to 121.2 billion RMB [1][2]. - In the first half of 2024, revenue and net profit grew by 8% to 221.7 billion RMB and 62.4 billion RMB, respectively, but the second half saw declines to 207.3 billion RMB and 58.8 billion RMB [1]. - The packaged drinking water segment experienced a significant revenue drop of 21.3% to 160 billion RMB, reducing its revenue share from 47.5% in 2023 to 37.2% in 2024 [1][2]. Group 2: Tea Beverage Segment - Dongfang Shuye's revenue grew by 32.3% to 167.5 billion RMB in 2024, surpassing the packaged drinking water segment for the first time, accounting for 39% of the company's total revenue [3][4]. - The tea beverage segment, including Dongfang Shuye and Tea Pi, saw annual revenue growth rates exceeding 50% from 2021 to 2023, with a total revenue of 167.5 billion RMB in 2024, marking a 5.4 times increase since 2020 [4][9]. Group 3: Market Position and Strategy - Dongfang Shuye has established a strong market presence, holding over 60% market share in the no-sugar tea segment, despite increasing competition [9]. - The brand's extensive distribution network, covering 2.43 million retail outlets, has been crucial in maintaining visibility and accessibility, particularly in lower-tier cities [8][9]. - Product innovation, such as seasonal offerings and larger packaging, has contributed to Dongfang Shuye's appeal among health-conscious consumers [6][8]. Group 4: Challenges and Future Outlook - The packaged drinking water segment faced a 20% revenue decline in 2024, yet Nongfu Spring maintained its leading market share [11][17]. - The company is exploring diversification into agricultural partnerships to bolster its juice business, with a 15.6% revenue increase in juice beverages to 41 billion RMB in 2024 [16][17]. - The impact of negative public sentiment on Nongfu Spring's overall performance may diminish over time, potentially improving future sales [16][17].