港股研究丨公司深度丨农夫山泉（9633.HK） [Table_Title] 农夫山泉深度报告：山泉为上，农夫饮茶 %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 农夫山泉作为中国软饮料行业领军企业，其在产品、品牌、营销、渠道上均颇有建树。农夫山 泉的本质是推动饮料行业价格链"通胀"，通过推出高品质、高价格产品，为上游供应链和经销 商创造丰厚利润，实现上下游利益绑定。本文从公司产业布局、营销能力、渠道模式三大维度 进行拆解，解读农夫山泉的常青之道。同时，我们认为公司已逐步走出舆论影响且有望顺势提 高市占率，增强公司影响力。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 董思远 冯萱 SAC：S0490517070016 SAC：S0490524060001 SFC：BQK487 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 30 research.95579.com 2 农夫山泉（9633.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 农夫山泉深度报告：山泉为上，农夫饮茶 [Table_Summary2] 农夫山泉：始于微末，发于华枝 ...

格隆汇8月24日｜重点关注美国7月PCE、二季度GDP、7月耐用品订单数据，中国8月官方PMI、7月规 模以上工业企业利润同比，美国对印度50%"对等关税"生效。英伟达、阿里巴巴、美团、拼多多、立讯 精密、新易盛、中际旭创将公布财报。 英伟达、美团、蜜雪集团、五粮液、安踏体育、中国海洋石油、奈雪的茶公布财报。 8月28日(周四)： 8月25日(周一)： 拼多多、海底捞、立讯精密、保利发展、恒立液压、新易盛公布财报。 8月26日(周二)： 07:15 FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯在墨西哥央行成立100年纪念会议上发表主旨演讲 20:30 美国7月耐用品订单环比初值 中国石油、爱尔眼科、中国中免、中国平安、中际旭创、浪潮信息、农夫山泉公布财报。 8月27日(周三)： 09:30 中国7月规模以上工业企业利润同比 阿里巴巴公布财报。 8月31日(周日)： 09:30 中国8月官方制造业PMI 00:00 美国对印度额外加征25%的关税，总关税税率为50% 19:30 欧洲央行公布7月货币政策会议纪要 20:30 美国8月23日当周首次申请失业救济人数、美国二季度实际GDP年化季环比修正值、美国二季度 个人 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the food and beverage industry Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is experiencing significant shifts with emerging trends in health-focused products and innovative marketing strategies [1][2][4][7][10][19] Industry Environment - The baking industry is undergoing a rapid reshuffle, with many well-known brands closing stores due to high rent and labor costs, leading to 95,000 bakery closures in 2024, while the industry still grows at 5.2% to reach 110.5 billion [2] - Tesla's restaurant model achieved $47,000 in sales within six hours of opening, with plans to enter the Shanghai market, although it faces challenges in adapting to local cuisine [2] - The powdered noodle market is expanding, projected to reach 227.5 billion in 2024, with over 1 million stores, emphasizing product innovation and local specialties [4] - The summer beverage market is shifting towards health-oriented drinks, with traditional carbonated drinks being replaced by herbal teas and health drinks, expected to exceed 10 billion by 2028 [4][8] - The carbonated beverage market is intensifying competition, with local brands like Yuanqi Forest and Dajiaolou launching innovative products to capture market share [7] - The GABA beverage market is emerging, with several companies launching products aimed at improving sleep and emotional health, although consumer education remains a challenge [13] - The herbal beverage market is growing rapidly, expected to double in the next three to five years, but faces challenges of formula homogenization [19] Top Brand News - Wudao yogurt has become the top Greek yogurt brand in four years by focusing on a niche market and high-quality production [23] - Haidilao is testing a high-end restaurant model with a price point over 500, indicating a shift towards premium dining experiences [24] - Dongpeng Beverage has successfully penetrated the market by targeting blue-collar workers and optimizing its supply chain [24] - Luckin Coffee is aggressively expanding with a low-price strategy, aiming to surpass Starbucks in China by 2025 [25] - Xiaoguan Tea has rapidly grown in the no-sugar tea market, achieving 2 billion in sales by catering to young consumers [26]

最近，天气持续高温，杭州属实是在外面走两步就开始汗流浃背的程度。 唯一能让人类坚持出门的，可能就是上班吧。。。 在这样的高温下，能消暑解热的食用冰，又火了。 网友们从价格、销量到质量，聊个没完。 所以就这么简单的一个冰杯，到底凭啥卖那么贵？去年夏天咱们就有过科普。 农夫山泉2公斤冰块卖22.8元，上热搜；冰杯持续火爆有厂家日销30吨，上热搜；冰杯居然卖得比水贵？价格刺客！上热搜。 可能在很多人眼里，食用冰就是把水烧开，放冰箱里一冻，价格就是水的成本，最多最多加个冰箱电费。 冰杯就更简单了，装了冰块的杯子呗？ 要说这玩意确实很方便，想喝什么果汁、咖啡、啤酒，买个冰杯倒里头，方便又得劲，炎炎夏日来一杯，爽！ 但你一看价格，笑容估计能直接凝固，这 " 冰冻凉白开 " 怎么卖得比饮料还贵啊？ 差评君在公司周遭便利店转了一圈，就发现冰杯价格在3.5~6 块不等，根据网络资料，2024 年 711 一度把冰杯卖到了 9.9 一杯。 你可别以为冰杯就是一个装了冰块的塑料杯，实际上，从冰块到外包装都有门道。 就拿制冰来说，你用烧开的白开水冻的冰，属于 " 速成派 "，冰箱制冰是由外而内快速冷冻，无法排出空气，冻出来的冰块呈白 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese apple juice market is experiencing steady growth, with production increasing from 180,000 tons in 2019 to a projected 504,000 tons by 2024, driven by stable demand and improved processing technology [5][2]. - The market size for apple juice is expected to rise from 8.5 billion yuan in 2019 to 12.8 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a recovery in consumer demand and external market conditions [8]. - Major players like Andeli and Nongfu Spring are leading the market, focusing on high-quality and diversified products, while also expanding their global presence [8][9]. Industry Overview - The juice industry in China is characterized by a multi-category coexistence, with orange juice holding a 28% market share and apple juice (including concentrate) at 22%, together dominating the market [1]. - Tropical fruit juices, such as mango and pineapple, account for 12% of the market, indicating potential for growth [1]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The supply of apple juice is heavily influenced by upstream raw material availability, with apple production expected to grow from 42.4 million tons in 2019 to 50.4 million tons in 2024, maintaining a growth rate of 3% to 4.3% [2]. - Key production regions include the Bohai Bay and the Northwest Loess Plateau, with Shaanxi being a significant area for high-quality apple production [2]. Production Trends - Apple juice production in China is projected to recover from a dip in 2020 due to the pandemic, with a steady increase anticipated from 2021 to 2024 as supply and demand balance out [5]. Market Dynamics - The apple juice market is witnessing a trend towards consolidation, with leading companies like Andeli and Guotou Zhonglu expanding their market share through mergers and acquisitions [9]. - There is a growing preference for high-quality organic products in mature markets, while emerging markets show higher growth rates in demand [9].

Group 1 - The baking industry is undergoing a rapid reshuffle, with many well-known brands closing stores due to high rent and labor costs, leading to 95,000 closures in 2024, despite the industry still growing at 5.2% to reach 110.5 billion yuan [3][4]. - Tesla's restaurant in Los Angeles generated $47,000 in just six hours, with plans to open in Shanghai next year, but faces challenges in adapting to Chinese cuisine [5]. - The powdered noodle market is expanding, with a projected market size of 227.5 billion yuan in 2024 and over 1 million stores by 2025, driven by product innovation and regional specialties [7]. Group 2 - The summer beverage market is shifting towards health-focused Chinese herbal drinks, with significant sales growth and a projected market size exceeding 10 billion yuan by 2028 [8][13]. - The sugary tea market is experiencing a resurgence, with the market size expected to be twice that of unsweetened tea from 2023 to 2025, driven by traditional brands and innovative products [9]. - The salt soda, originally a labor product, is gaining popularity among young consumers, but faces challenges in seasonal demand and regional distribution [10]. Group 3 - The carbonated beverage market is intensifying competition, with local brands like Yuanqi Forest and Zhenzhen launching innovative products to capture market share from Coca-Cola and Pepsi [11]. - The Chinese coffee market has surpassed the U.S. in the number of coffee shops, with a projected market size exceeding 220 billion yuan by 2025 [17]. - The herbal beverage market is rapidly growing, with a projected size of 150 billion yuan by 2023, but faces challenges of formula homogenization [31]. Group 4 - The energy drink market is expected to maintain high growth, with a projected CAGR of 10.9% from 2020 to 2024, driven by increasing demand among young consumers [23]. - The trend of large-sized beverages is rising, particularly in lower-tier cities, with a focus on cost-effectiveness and shared consumption [10]. - The "current milk drink" category is emerging as a new trend, with brands leveraging social media and health attributes to attract young consumers [24]. Group 5 - The herbal drink market is seeing a surge in interest, with companies like Weiwei launching new products that emphasize natural ingredients and health benefits [44]. - The trend of "functional juices" is gaining traction, with products like HPP ginger drinks becoming popular among young consumers [42]. - The market for GABA-based sleep aid beverages is growing, but faces challenges in consumer education and product efficacy [22].

Core Viewpoint - The competitive dynamics between Wahaha and Nongfu Spring have shifted dramatically, with Nongfu Spring recovering from a public relations crisis while Wahaha faces significant challenges [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Nongfu Spring's stock price reached a three-year high of 48.2 HKD, marking an increase of over 110% from its lowest point of 22.73 HKD in September 2024, with a market capitalization exceeding 500 billion HKD [1][3]. - In contrast, Nongfu Spring's revenue from bottled water declined by 21.3% in 2024, with total revenue of 428.96 billion RMB, a mere 0.5% increase year-on-year [7][9]. Group 2: Public Relations and Reputation - The public relations crisis for Nongfu Spring began after the death of its founder, leading to a significant backlash and accusations against its founder, Zhong Shanshan, which resulted in a 51.8% drop in stock price from May to September 2024 [4][7]. - The narrative surrounding Zhong Shanshan shifted positively after the public learned about the legal disputes involving Wahaha's founder's trust assets, which contrasted sharply with Zhong's previously perceived image [8][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts, including Citibank, have raised Nongfu Spring's target price from 38.6 HKD to 53.3 HKD, anticipating a recovery in its bottled water business by the second half of 2025 [3][9]. - The ongoing scrutiny of Wahaha's performance indicates a decline in sales, with reports of a nearly 20% drop in certain regions during peak sales seasons [9].

Core Insights - Nongfu Spring has achieved a significant milestone by ranking 3rd in the BrandFinance's "Top 50 Global Soft Drink Brands 2025," marking the first time a Chinese brand has entered the top three, following Coca-Cola and Pepsi [1][5]. Brand Value and Performance - In 2025, Nongfu Spring's brand value reached $11.1 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33.6% [5]. - The brand strength index (BSI) improved by 3.5 points to 91.1, with the brand strength rating upgraded to the highest AAA+ level, establishing it as a benchmark in the Asian non-alcoholic beverage sector [5]. Product Portfolio and Market Strategy - Nongfu Spring's product matrix spans 10 categories and over 100 SKUs, including bottled water, tea, juice, and functional drinks, creating a synergistic effect where consumers may purchase multiple products [5]. - The brand's health-oriented products, such as the "0 sugar, 0 calorie, 0 artificial flavor" label on its Dongfang Shuye tea, contributed to sales exceeding 12 billion yuan in 2024 [5]. Water Source Development - The company has established 15 major water sources and is accelerating the development of additional projects, reinforcing its commitment to a "natural and healthy" brand philosophy [6]. - The strategic development and protection of high-quality water sources create a significant competitive barrier for Nongfu Spring [6]. International Expansion Goals - Nongfu Spring aims to become a world-class international enterprise, actively exploring overseas market opportunities and leveraging China's biodiversity to promote healthy products globally [7]. - The brand's entry into the top ranks of a list traditionally dominated by international giants like Red Bull and Pepsi is expected to enhance the global dissemination of Chinese water and tea culture [7].

Core Insights - BrandFinance's report ranks Nongfu Spring as the 3rd most valuable non-alcoholic beverage brand globally in 2025, marking a significant milestone for the Chinese soft drink industry and indicating a shift in the Western-dominated beverage market [1][4] - Nongfu Spring's brand value reached $11.09 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33.6%, with a brand strength index (BSI) increase of 3.5 points to 91.1, achieving the highest AAA+ rating [1][6] - The company's success is attributed to its dual-engine strategy of "water + beverages" and a strong emphasis on health, which has allowed it to maintain a diverse product matrix [1][3] Company Strategy - Nongfu Spring has established 15 major water sources and is actively developing additional projects, reinforcing its commitment to a "natural and healthy" brand philosophy, which creates a significant competitive barrier [3] - The brand's image is enhanced through diverse bottle designs that cater to various consumer needs, combining high-end and localized strategies to sustain its brand value growth [3] Market Position - The company aims to become a world-class international enterprise, exploring overseas market opportunities and leveraging China's biodiversity to introduce more health products globally [4] - Nongfu Spring's consistent presence in the BrandFinance rankings reflects the scientific and sustainable nature of its brand building and business development [6]

Core Insights - BrandFinance's report ranks Nongfu Spring as the 3rd most valuable non-alcoholic beverage brand globally, marking the first time a Chinese brand has entered the top three, following Coca-Cola and Pepsi [1][3] Brand Value and Growth - In 2025, Nongfu Spring's brand value reached $11.09 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33.6% [3] - The Brand Strength Index (BSI) increased by 3.5 points to 91.1, achieving the highest AAA+ rating, establishing Nongfu Spring as a benchmark in the Asian non-alcoholic beverage sector [3] Product Diversification and Market Strategy - Nongfu Spring has developed a diversified product matrix that includes bottled water, tea, juice, and functional beverages, creating a synergistic effect where consumers may purchase tea alongside water [3] - The brand's "0 sugar, 0 calories, 0 artificial flavors" label for its Oriental Leaf tea has led to continuous market share growth, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 86% over the past three years [3] Competitive Advantages - Nongfu Spring's brand value growth is closely linked to its strong position in premium water sources, with 15 major water sources and ongoing projects for further development [4] - The company's commitment to a "natural and healthy" brand philosophy has established significant competitive barriers [4] Brand Image and Global Expansion - The diverse aesthetic design of Nongfu Spring's packaging caters to various consumer needs, combining high-end and localized strategies to enhance brand value [4] - The company aims to become a world-class international enterprise, actively exploring overseas market opportunities and leveraging China's biodiversity to introduce more health products globally [4] Brand Evaluation Standards - BrandFinance's evaluation system includes core dimensions such as brand strength index, financial performance, and market competitiveness, making the "Global Soft Drink Brand Value 50" list a gold standard for measuring brand value [5]