分化依旧，把握结构性景气 ——大众品板块2025年中报业绩综述 王言海、张馨予、范锡蒙 2025年9月18日 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 * 01 核心观点 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 ➢ 低度酒及饮料：优选高景气。考虑到现饮渠道复苏斜率暂无显著改善，啤酒板块推荐基本面景气相对较优、业绩具备α的的燕京啤酒、珠江啤酒，主因区域性龙头非现销 量占比高+单品渠道利润周期因素共振下公司收入端α具备一定持续性，其中燕京啤酒得益于改革稳步推进，经营效率持续提升，利润端α更为突出；关注全国性龙头华润 啤酒，公司经营周期处于较好阶段，因此我们认为在行业外部环境一定承压的背景下公司节奏相对从容，有望持续兑现优于行业的业绩表现，考虑到现金流状况优异后续 分红率亦有望持续提升，估值具备修复空间。建议持续跟踪后续现饮渠道需求恢复情况，关注青岛啤酒/青岛啤酒股份、重庆啤酒。黄酒板块关注会稽山、古越龙山。预 调酒板块建议关注百润股份。饮料板块推荐高景气细分赛道＋持续推进全国化的东鹏饮料，关注份额持续修复且25H2业绩有望进一步环比提速的平台型龙头农夫山泉， 建议关注康师傅控股、统一企业中国、华润饮料。 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform the Market" [3][20]. Core Insights - The white liquor sector is expected to see a weak recovery in demand as policy pressures ease, with a notable narrowing of year-on-year declines anticipated during the upcoming double festival sales [2]. - The food and beverage industry is currently at a low valuation, with pessimistic expectations fully priced in, and the release of interim results is expected to alleviate performance pressures [2]. - The report highlights the potential for premium liquor companies like Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu, which have stable pricing and attractive dividend yields, to be favored during this adjustment period [2]. - In the mass consumer goods segment, companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage are recommended due to their strong growth trajectories and the market's willingness to assign valuation premiums to "scarce" growth stocks [2]. Summary by Sections Weekly Tracking - The food and beverage industry increased by 1.08% in the week of September 8-12, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.52% [3][4]. - Among sub-sectors, meat products led with a gain of 2.99%, while snacks saw a decline of 4.60% [3][6]. Dairy Sector - The nationwide rollout of childcare subsidies is expected to boost demand for dairy products, particularly infant formula, benefiting leading companies with strong brand advantages and diversified distribution channels [3]. Snack Sector - The rapid expansion of the snack chain "Mingming Hen Mang" has surpassed 20,000 stores, indicating a shift towards a more competitive and cost-effective sales model that aligns with current consumer trends [3]. Restaurant Sector - The launch of the "Gaode Street Ranking" by Gaode Map is anticipated to enhance the vitality of offline dining by leveraging user behavior data for merchant evaluations, which may benefit restaurant supply chain companies [3].

1、恆指:投資者認為繼續向上爬升，過夜牛證，收回價25330；也有投資者反手部署熊證，收回價26600點 Simon:週一收市價在26446點，在保力加通道頂部26442之上。技術信號總結為"賣出"，短線回落下跌的幾率大一些。參考數據分析的支持位在25779點和 25348點。投資者選擇的牛證，收回價是安全的，低於兩個支持位。而留意熊證的投資者，參考數據系統分析的指數阻力位26700點和27500點。儘量選擇挨 近27500點會安全一些，避免收回風險。 恆指 (HSI) 信號總結 賣出信號 買入信號 中立信號 賣出 10 6 5 国商圈 恆指(HSI)衍生品回顧 32% 31% 17% 1.38% 1.38% 1.38% 中銀認購證 中銀牛證 中銀牛證 18058 55050 55475 2、寧德時代 (03750.HK):竟然創新高了，投資者問這個月能否見500元？窩輪市場上，有人獲利離場並反手部署認沽證，行使價334.08元。 Simon:走勢非常不錯，全日最高見476.8元，最終收市465元。數據系統分析的阻力位505元和510元。信號總結為"賣出"。所以無論數據分析還是窩輪市場動 態來看個股是有機會下 ...

最近几年，中国首富的位置频繁轮换，黄峥、张一鸣等互联网新贵都曾登顶，但坐得最久的还是钟睒睒 。作为"瓶装水大王"钟睒睒从2021年登顶成为中 国首富以来，已经连续蝉联3年。2024年，钟睒睒因为深陷舆论风波，企业业绩波动较大，身价大幅缩水，痛失首富之位。 | 21 | Thomas Peterffy | | | --- | --- | --- | | | Discount brokerage | | | | Julia Koch & | 74.2 | | 22 | family | | | | Koch, Inc. | | | 23 | Changpeng Zhao | | | | Cryptocurrency exchange | | | 24 | Zhong Shanshan | 68.4 B | | | Beverages, pharmaceuticals | | | | Charles Koch & | | | 25 | family | | | | Koch, Inc. | | | 26 | Gautam Adani | 66.6 B | | | Infrastructure, commoditie ...

热门板块方面 智通财经APP获悉，港股今日低开高走，恒指及国指午后一度跳水转跌，但随即拉升翻红。截止收盘， 恒生指数涨0.22%或58.4点，报26446.56点，全日成交额为2901.95亿港元；恒生国企指数涨0.21%，报 9384.76点；恒生科技指数涨0.91%，报6043.61点。 东吴证券指出，美联储降息短期会利好港股上行，但港股面临基本面边际走弱预期，所以中期涨幅取决 于企业基本面回升情况；此外，港股进一步上涨还需要新动能。最近增量资金明显增配科技互联网龙 头，但更偏向个股逻辑。外资关注中国资产，但是增量资金大规模流入还需观察经济基本面实际改善情 况。 蓝筹股表现 药明生物(02269)领涨蓝筹。截至收盘，涨6.47%，报38.84港元，成交额19.83亿港元，贡献恒指13.66 点。里昂此前指出，CXO行业的盈利与估值对资金环境变化较敏感，该行预期美国下半年潜在减息将 推动市场偏好CXO板块。相较上半年，今年下半年至明年在更有利的资金环境下，全球的生物科技公 司将增加研发投入，而制药企业亦将扩大研发支出以缓解专利壁垒压力，并将持续惠及药明生物。 其他蓝筹股方面，理想汽车-W(02015)涨4. ...

农夫山泉 20250912 摘要 农夫山泉通过差异化定位，推出天然水概念，并在千岛湖建厂，通过营 销宣传天然水优于纯净水，成功提高了消费者认知，2023 年市占率达 23.6%，位居全国第一。 公司创始人钟睒睒对公司发展影响深远，其营销才能使公司在产品选择 和营销策略上取得成功，例如推出大包装水并结合体育赛事营销，推广 天然水概念。 东方树叶作为无糖茶代表，初期市场反响平淡，但随着无糖茶概念普及， 销量爆发式增长，2024 年茶饮料收入首次超过包装水，成为公司第一 大盈利板块。 农夫山泉通过高品质、高定价策略实现高毛利率，并将利润分配给渠道 商以维护忠诚度。同时，通过扶持上游茶厂、果汁厂等方式稳固供应链。 2024 年包装水行业增速放缓至 2%左右，但长期来看，中国人均饮用量 仍有提升空间，家庭消费、餐饮等新场景将驱动行业增长。 公司通过与农户绑定利益，构建稳健供应链，例如在茶叶和果汁原材料 上进行布局，帮助农户实现工业化，确保原材料供应稳定。 面对公关危机，农夫山泉积极回应，维护品牌形象。渠道管理经历了从 连营体到精耕细作，再到经销商专属化改革的阶段，提高渠道灵活度和 掌控力。 Q&A 农夫山泉在饮料行业中 ...

专题：2025亚布力论坛第21届夏季年会 9月13日上午消息，今日，2025亚布力企业家论坛第二十一届夏季年会现场，好望水创始人孙梦鸽深入 分享了品牌的创立历程、产品研发逻辑以及对中国饮料行业未来发展的思考。她表示，好望水从餐饮场 景起步，逐渐拓展至全渠道，目前两大单品"望山楂"与"五指毛桃薏米水"销售额比例接近1：1，公司整 体规模尚未超过10亿元。 孙梦鸽表示，最初创业时，市场上几乎没有"气泡果汁"的概念。她创业做的是中式烤串餐饮，希望打造 一款与餐饮场景匹配、具有助消化功能的饮料。由于市面上找不到符合需求的产品，团队决定自主研 发。 "当时因为我们做餐厅，市场上都会有一些传统的大品牌……餐厅已经升级了，所以就想说是否在饮料 上也能够变成一致性。"她提到，"加了气泡是因为沙口感让人快乐——这是从可口可乐身上学到 的。"于是采用了精酿啤酒的工艺打入二氧化碳，成为国内较早探索气泡果汁的品牌。 谈及品牌包装的设计元素为何有明显的传统文化元素，她坦言，这种传统文化元素融入产品并非刻意为 之，而是源于自身成长背景和审美偏好。"我自己是西安人，从小就在文化下长大的……包括在做产品 设计的时候，也在用毛笔字这样的形式。 ...

转自：前瞻产业研究院 行业主要公司：农夫山泉(09633.HK);康师傅控股(00322.HK);统一企业中国(00220.HK)等 本文核心数据：企业市场份额;市场集中度;企业竞争力评价 1、中国果汁行业竞争格局 果汁是以水果为原料经过物理方法加工制成的饮品，是基于消费者健康需求升级产生的饮品品类，相较于碳 酸饮料等，在原料构成与营养属性上存在明显差异。 目前，中国果汁行业处于成熟发展阶段，市场竞争充分，同时呈现差异化竞争与合作并存的态势。低浓度果 汁为主流市场，由可口可乐、康师傅、统一等主导;中浓度及纯果汁领域各有代表企业，分别凭差异化口 味、技术及渠道立足，整体呈现大众消费与品质升级并存的特点。 从果汁行业整体的竞争格局来看，2024年，可口可乐、味全、康师傅、汇源及统一五家企业所占的市场份额 最高，合计占到了中国果汁饮品市场的56.20%。由于上述企业在低浓度果汁中的市场占比较高，而低浓度 果汁又占据着74%的果汁市场，所以果汁行业的整体竞争格局较为集中。 2、中国果汁行业市场排名 3、中国果汁行业市场集中度 2024年中国果汁饮料行业CR5达到58.3%，其中康师傅、统一、农夫山泉三大品牌合计市占率 ...

Core Points - The founder of Nongfu Spring, Zhong Shanshan, has stepped down as the legal representative of Hangzhou Nongfu Spring Food Sales Co., Ltd, with Chen Qiurong taking over the position [1][3] - This change is part of a series of resignations by Zhong in recent years from various affiliated companies, indicating a shift in his role within the company [1][3] - Despite this change, Zhong remains a board member, suggesting a transition from daily management to a decision-making and supervisory role [3][4] Company Overview - Hangzhou Nongfu Spring Food Sales Co., Ltd was established in 2013 and plays a crucial role in the sales network of the Nongfu Spring group, primarily responsible for food sales [3] - The company is wholly owned by Nongfu Spring, and while its registered capital is not large, it is significant within the group's sales framework [3] Management Transition - The company stated that the change in legal representation is based on normal business and management considerations, unrelated to Zhong's involvement in daily operations [3] - Nongfu Spring emphasized its commitment to regulatory compliance and will disclose any significant developments in the company's operations to the market and public [3] Industry Perspective - Analysts note that Zhong's resignation from multiple subsidiary legal representative roles reflects a common trend in the corporate world, where companies transition from founder-led management to professional management teams [4] - This arrangement allows companies to maintain strategic stability while enhancing professional management capabilities [4]

Group 1: Company Performance - Proya achieved a revenue of 5.362 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.21%, with a net profit of 799 million yuan, up 13.80% [2] - Nongfu Spring reported a revenue of 25.622 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a 15.6% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 7.622 billion yuan, up 22.1% [5] - Lululemon's Q2 revenue for fiscal year 2025 reached $2.5 billion, with a 7% year-on-year growth, and a 25% increase in revenue from mainland China [3] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - Proya announced the initiation of its Hong Kong stock listing plan, aiming to enhance its capital strength and competitiveness on an international scale [2] - Lululemon plans to open approximately 15 new stores in the Americas in 2025, with a significant focus on expanding in the Chinese market [3] - Lekker Sports signed an official partnership with the Chinese National Weightlifting Team to enhance its brand image and service quality [4][5] Group 3: Product Launches and Innovations - Zdeer launched the G4 series of bone conduction hearing aids, emphasizing all-day comfort and performance for users [8] - DESCENTE held a 90th-anniversary exhibition showcasing its history and innovations in sports equipment [13] - BIRKENSTOCK introduced the 1774 Becomes Berlin collection, reinterpreting classic shoe designs with modern aesthetics [14]