证券研究报告·海外公司深度·食物饮品(HS) 农夫山泉（09633.HK） 秉承长期主义，龙头底色不改 2025 年 04 月 10 日 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 42916 | 42896 | 49488 | 55217 | 60807 | | 同比(%) | 28.13 | (0.05) | 15.37 | 11.58 | 10.12 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 12079 | 12123 | 14148 | 15976 | 17849 | | 同比(%) | 42.19 | 0.36 | 16.70 | 12.92 | 11.72 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.07 | 1.08 | 1.26 | 1.42 | 1.59 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 29.20 | 29.09 | 24.93 | 22.08 | 19.76 | [Table_Tag] [T ...

Core Insights - In 2024, the Chinese beverage industry is facing challenges as Nongfu Spring reports annual revenue of 32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18%, maintaining a market share of 27% in the packaged water sector [1] - Despite strong revenue figures, the company is confronted with market saturation, competition from new tea beverage brands, and fluctuations in raw material prices [1] Market Position and Competition - Nongfu Spring holds a market share of 26.7%, but this is being eroded by competitors like Yibao, which increased its share to 21.3%, and Kangshifu, which regained a market share of 18.5% through low-price strategies [1][2] - New tea beverage brands are also impacting traditional categories, with Genki Forest's sales of sugar-free soda water surpassing 1.5 billion bottles [1] Brand Positioning Challenges - The brand's differentiation as "natural water" is under pressure from high-end brands like Baishui Mountain and Evian, as well as low-cost brands in the lower-tier market [2] - In the price segment below 5 yuan, Nongfu Spring's market share decreased by 3 percentage points, while Kangshifu's share increased by 5 percentage points [2] Product Innovation Issues - Nongfu Spring's product innovation has seen a low success rate of less than 30%, with products like "Bubble Tea" being withdrawn shortly after launch due to taste controversies [3] - The company's new product "Lithium Water" has only achieved 40% of expected sales due to high pricing [3] Environmental and Regulatory Concerns - The company faces environmental scrutiny, particularly regarding its water extraction practices, which have led to a decline in consumer confidence [4] - Negative reviews on its Tmall flagship store increased by 12%, with 45% of complaints related to water quality concerns [4] Supply Chain and Cost Pressures - Nongfu Spring's supply chain is robust, with 12 water source bases and 78 automated production lines, but cost pressures are diminishing this advantage [5] - PET prices, which account for about 30% of production costs, surged by 42% in 2023, leading to a decline in gross margin to 55.7% [6] Channel and Distribution Challenges - Traditional retail channels are being disrupted by new retail models, with Nongfu Spring's online sales lagging behind competitors [7] - The company's reliance on traditional retail outlets is becoming a liability as sales in these channels decline [7] Asset and Capacity Issues - The company's heavy asset model, with fixed assets making up 48% of total assets, limits flexibility in responding to market demand fluctuations [8] - Capacity utilization at its Yunnan base was only 65% due to insufficient demand, leading to increased depreciation costs [8] Competitive Landscape - Traditional competitors like Yibao and Kangshifu are strengthening their market positions, with combined market shares approaching 40% [9] - New entrants like Genki Forest and HiTea are disrupting the market with innovative products and strong online sales strategies [10] - Dairy giants like Yili and Mengniu are entering the bottled water market, posing new threats to Nongfu Spring's market share [11] Strategic Outlook - Nongfu Spring's revenue milestone highlights its brand strength but also reveals deep-rooted issues related to product dependency and innovation stagnation [12] - The company must balance cost control and product innovation in the short term while integrating brand strength, supply chain efficiency, and digital capabilities for long-term success [12]

Core Insights - The core issue is the significant decline in Nongfu Spring's bottled water revenue, which has dropped by over 20%, raising concerns about the viability of the bottled water business [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, Nongfu Spring reported a revenue of 428.96 billion yuan, a mere 0.5% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 121.23 billion yuan, up by 0.4% [3]. - In contrast, the previous year (2023) saw a revenue of 426.67 billion yuan, reflecting a robust growth of 28.4%, and a net profit of 120.79 billion yuan, which grew by 42.2% [3]. - The primary revenue sources for 2024 included packaged drinking water (159.53 billion yuan), tea beverages (167.45 billion yuan), functional drinks (49.32 billion yuan), fruit juices (40.85 billion yuan), and others (11.83 billion yuan) [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The bottled water segment experienced a rare decline, with revenue falling by 21.3% to 159.52 billion yuan, and market share decreasing from 47.5% to 37.2% [3]. - The tea beverage segment, however, grew by 32.3% to 167.45 billion yuan, surpassing bottled water revenue for the first time, now accounting for 39% of total revenue [3]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The bottled water market in China is highly competitive, with numerous brands entering the space, leading to intensified price competition and consumer choice [4]. - To counteract market pressures, Nongfu Spring launched a new product line of low-priced purified water, which, while effective in capturing market share, has negatively impacted traditional bottled water sales [5]. - The ongoing price wars initiated by Nongfu Spring and other brands have led to a reduction in profit margins across the industry, forcing companies to adopt cost-cutting measures [6]. Group 4: Strategic Outlook - The decline in bottled water revenue does not indicate a failing business model but highlights the increasing competition in the market [7]. - For Nongfu Spring, the challenge lies in innovating and adjusting strategies to maintain its competitive edge while exploring new growth opportunities [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the development of China's tea industry, emphasizing the importance of integrating tea culture, industry, and technology to enhance the sector's growth and sustainability [1][2]. Industry Overview - China's tea production has been increasing, with a reported output of 3.74 million tons in 2024, marking a 5.5% increase. However, tea prices have been declining, particularly in comparison to international markets [5][6]. - The domestic tea market is facing a significant gap between production and sales, leading to substantial amounts of tea being wasted [6]. Company Initiatives - Nongfu Spring has actively engaged in the Yunnan tea market by purchasing tea leaves at prices higher than the market average, significantly benefiting local farmers and tea producers [7][8]. - The company has committed to building five modern tea processing facilities in Yunnan, with a processing capacity of 20,000 kg of fresh leaves per day, which is five times that of typical facilities [2][12]. Economic Impact - The high purchasing prices from Nongfu Spring have revitalized the local tea market, leading to increased incomes for farmers and tea factories [7][8]. - In 2024, Nongfu Spring purchased approximately 13,000 tons of tea, benefiting over 60,000 households, with plans to increase purchases to 19,000 tons in 2025, representing a 58% growth [8][12]. Technological Advancements - The new processing facilities will utilize advanced technology, including automated systems for tea processing, which will enhance efficiency and product quality [11][12]. - The company aims to standardize tea production processes to ensure consistent quality, addressing issues related to traditional production methods [11][15]. Cultural and Market Positioning - Nongfu Spring's initiatives are seen as a way to strengthen the overall tea supply chain and improve the market position of Chinese tea globally, especially in comparison to Japanese tea, which commands higher prices internationally [16][17]. - The company emphasizes the need for a cultural revival in the tea industry to enhance its global competitiveness and market presence [16][18].

Core Insights - The article discusses the modernization of the tea industry in Yunnan, facilitated by Nongfu Spring's donation of five modern tea processing factories, which aims to enhance local livelihoods and promote industrial revitalization [1][3][5]. Group 1: Investment and Infrastructure - Nongfu Spring has invested 20 million yuan in a green tea processing factory in Yunnan, which has begun operations, marking a significant step in local industrial development [3]. - The new factories are equipped with advanced tea processing lines capable of handling 20,000 kilograms of fresh leaves per day, significantly outperforming traditional facilities [4]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The tea processing facilities utilize automated processes for various stages, including withering, killing green, and rolling, leading to a quality improvement where the pass rate of tea quality has increased from 52% to over 90% [4]. - The introduction of digital control systems allows for precise management of temperature and pressure during processing, enhancing overall efficiency and product quality [4]. Group 3: Economic Impact - Local tea farmers have seen a 20-30% increase in the price of fresh leaves due to Nongfu Spring's involvement, which has also led to a shift from seasonal to year-round tea collection [6]. - The partnership with Nongfu Spring has resulted in local tea producers receiving guaranteed purchase agreements, thus stabilizing their income and encouraging further investment in equipment upgrades [6]. Group 4: Future Prospects - Nongfu Spring aims to replicate its successful model from Jiangxi, focusing on standardized production and market competition, which could lead to a significant transformation in the Yunnan tea industry [7]. - The company plans to invest 1 billion yuan in a beverage production base in Kunming, set to launch in 2026, which will further integrate Yunnan tea into global markets [7]. Group 5: Societal Benefits - The initiative emphasizes a people-centric approach to industrial upgrading, transforming farmers from mere participants to beneficiaries of technology and value sharing [8]. - The article highlights the potential for Yunnan tea to achieve substantial global sales, leveraging the region's natural resources and improving production standards [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of public sentiment and rumors on Nongfu Spring's business performance in 2024, highlighting the company's financial results and the challenges it faced due to negative publicity surrounding its founder, Zhong Shanshan [1]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Nongfu Spring reported revenue of 42.896 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, and a net profit of 12.123 billion yuan, also up 0.4% [1]. - The bottled water segment experienced a significant decline, with revenue dropping by 21.3% to 15.952 billion yuan, leading to a market share decrease from 47.5% to 37.2% [1]. - The tea beverage segment, however, saw a revenue increase of 32.3% to 16.745 billion yuan, becoming the largest business segment with a 39% share [1]. Rumor Dynamics - The article categorizes the types of rumors affecting Nongfu Spring into three main forms: fabrication, strained associations, and distorted interpretations [2]. - Fabricated rumors included claims that Nongfu Spring hired online trolls to discredit Wahaha and imposed sales bans on its products, which were proven false [3]. - Strained associations involved claims that Zhong Shanshan's founding of Nongfu Spring was a personal vendetta against Wahaha, which was not the case [4]. - Distorted interpretations included rumors about the company's future ownership due to Zhong's son's American nationality, which were addressed by Zhong clarifying the company's ownership structure [6][7]. Response to Public Sentiment - Nongfu Spring's approach to handling rumors was characterized as "hard confrontation," which had mixed results in mitigating negative impacts [8]. - The company misjudged the severity of public sentiment, leading to a response that did not resonate with certain audience segments, ultimately affecting its bottled water business [9]. - The article emphasizes the importance of emotional management in public relations, suggesting that the company should focus on addressing underlying public sentiments rather than merely countering rumors [14]. Strengths and Weaknesses - Nongfu Spring's strong market position is attributed to its extensive water sources and robust offline distribution channels, with over 80% of revenue coming from offline sales [12]. - Despite its hard strengths, the company struggled with soft skills in public relations, leading to a disconnect with public sentiment and contributing to the negative impact on its bottled water segment [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of a tea processing factory by Nongfu Spring in Yunnan aims to enhance the industrialization and standardization of the local tea industry, addressing the growing demand for tea beverages and improving supply capabilities [1][2][3]. Group 1: Investment and Infrastructure Development - Nongfu Spring invested 20 million yuan to build a tea processing factory in Jingdong County, Yunnan, which officially commenced operations on March 31 [1]. - The company has committed over 100 million yuan to construct five modern tea processing facilities in various locations in Yunnan, each capable of processing 20,000 kilograms of fresh leaves daily, significantly exceeding the capacity of typical initial processing factories [1][2]. Group 2: Technological Advancements and Production Efficiency - The newly established factory features advanced processing equipment that automates multiple steps in tea production, enhancing quality control and production efficiency by minimizing manual handling [2][4]. - The factory's operations are designed to implement a fully digitalized control system for critical parameters, thereby stabilizing the quality of the tea produced [2][4]. Group 3: Support for Local Farmers and Economic Impact - Nongfu Spring aims to not only provide infrastructure but also to instill advanced production standards and practices among local farmers, enhancing their income and productivity [5][6]. - The company has established a detailed management model for collaborating tea gardens, implementing 118 organic standards that exceed national requirements, thus improving the overall quality of tea production [5][6]. Group 4: Strategic Vision and Market Positioning - The initiative is part of Nongfu Spring's broader strategy to upgrade the entire tea industry chain in Yunnan, focusing on increasing the added value of tea products and meeting diverse consumer demands [4][6]. - The founder of Nongfu Spring expressed that the company's efforts in Yunnan are not merely philanthropic but are also aimed at strengthening the supply chain and ensuring sustainable development for both the company and local farmers [5][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][4] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 42.896 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 0.54%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.123 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 0.36% [2][4] - The packaging water segment faced a significant decline in revenue, down 21.3% year-on-year to 15.952 billion yuan, primarily due to negative online sentiment affecting the brand and sales [3][4] - The tea beverage segment saw a robust growth of 32.3% year-on-year, reaching 16.745 billion yuan, driven by health-conscious consumer trends [3][4] - The company maintains a strong focus on product innovation and sustainable agricultural practices, which are expected to drive long-term growth [3][4] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 49.547 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 15.5% [6] - The net profit is expected to reach 14.550 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.02% [6] - The gross margin is projected to be 59.00% in 2025, slightly improving from 58.08% in 2024 [6] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.29 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25 [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is gradually recovering from past challenges, with expectations for a rebound in bottled water market share in 2025 [8] - The company achieved a revenue of 42.896 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, and a net profit of 12.123 billion CNY, also up 0.4% year-on-year [4] - The report anticipates a double-digit revenue growth in 2025, driven by improvements in bottled water market share and continued strength in ready-to-drink tea [9] Revenue Performance - In 2024, the revenue from bottled water was 15.952 billion CNY, down 21.3% year-on-year, while ready-to-drink tea revenue was 16.745 billion CNY, up 32.3% year-on-year [4][5] - The company’s other income and gains reached 2.129 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.6% [7] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 was 58.1%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to promotional activities for bottled water [6] - The net profit margin remained stable at 28.3% for 2024 [7] Future Outlook - The company plans to enhance its product offerings and marketing strategies to strengthen its market position in the ready-to-drink tea segment [8] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 14.130 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 16.6% [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is gradually recovering from past challenges, with expectations for a rebound in bottled water market share in 2025 [8] - The company achieved a revenue of 42.896 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, and a net profit of 12.123 billion CNY, also up 0.4% year-on-year [4] - The report anticipates a potential double-digit revenue growth in 2025, driven by improvements in bottled water market share and continued focus on product quality and consumer preferences [8][9] Revenue Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenues of 42.896 billion CNY, with a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year [4] - The revenue for bottled water in 2024 was 159.52 billion CNY, down 21.3% year-on-year, while ready-to-drink tea revenue was 167.45 billion CNY, up 32.3% year-on-year [4][5] - The company’s other income and gains reached 2.129 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a 15.6% increase, primarily due to increased government subsidies [7] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 was 58.1%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to promotional activities and rising raw material costs [6] - The net profit margin for 2024 was stable at 28.3%, showing resilience despite market challenges [7] Future Outlook - The company is expected to enhance its market share in bottled water by leveraging its product offerings and marketing strategies [8] - The ready-to-drink tea segment is projected to face slower growth due to high competition and a significant revenue base [8] - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are adjusted to 14.130 billion CNY and 15.958 billion CNY, respectively, reflecting a slight downward revision [9]