出品｜搜狐财经 作者｜柴鑫洋 编辑｜李文贤 詹军豪表示，纯净水与天然水生产本质区别在于水源，而非技术。纯净水一般来自公共供水系统，采用 反渗透或蒸馏技术，去除水中杂质，工艺相对简单，大部分厂商可生产或代工。天然水则来自非公共供 5月20日，农夫山泉在杭州总部召开年度股东大会，关于近期农夫山泉产品代工的传闻，钟睒睒在会上 给予回应："不反对代工，但农夫山泉目前的所有产品是无法代工的。" 知名危机公关专家、福州公孙策公关合伙人詹军豪表示，天然水来自非公共供水系统的地表水或地下 水，需保留矿物质和微量元素，生产系统高度定制，对水源地依赖性强，难以代工。 财报显示，农夫山泉去年营收428.96亿元，同比增长0.5%；公司净利润为121.23亿元，同比增加0.4%。 钟睒睒在财报中坦言，去年公司遭遇"有组织、持续性的网络恶意攻击"，导致包装饮用水产品市占率连 续三个月下滑，全年该品类收益同比减少21.3%，品牌形象面临"历史性考验"。 截至5月22日收盘，农夫山泉跌2.73%，报36.7港元/股，总市值4127亿港元。 钟睒睒称农夫山泉目前所有产品无法代加工 未来会积极参与养生水赛道 在农夫山泉股东大会上，钟睒睒称，在 ...

中国商报（记者 周子荑 文/图）近期，娃哈哈纯净水由今麦郎代工一事，将饮用水行业的代工现象推向了舆论的风口浪尖。5月20日，农夫山泉董事长钟睒 睒称，农夫山泉目前所有产品是无法代工的，引发外界关注。 业内人士认为，目前，饮用水行业代工的情况多存在于纯净水产品中，天然水和矿泉水品牌很难找到合适的代工厂。那么，矿泉水、天然水、纯净水这三者 在生产中究竟有何区别？ 农夫山泉的饮用天然水产品。 "农夫山泉目前所有产品无法代工" 5月20日，在农夫山泉2024年年度股东大会上，面对近期关于农夫山泉产品代工的传闻，公司董事长钟睒睒在会上回应："不反对代工，但农夫山泉目前的所 有产品是无法代工的。" 钟睒睒进一步解释，在工业体系中，代工是普遍存在的协同方式。但对于农夫山泉而言，代工在根本上几乎是行不通的——公司对水源地有极高依赖，其生 产系统高度定制，从管线铺设、原水处理、灌装设备到每一瓶标签的粘贴，背后是极其复杂的标准流程。 对此，饮用水行业的从业者李鑫（化名）表示，钟睒睒的表述有一定道理，矿泉水类产品因水源的独占性和生产系统定制化，确实难以代工；其他饮品（如 茶饮）若依赖通用配方则可能代工，但农夫山泉可能出于品控或品牌 ...

烈日下，成箱的饮料堆积在仓库角落，包装上的生产日期正悄然逼近临期线。一位经销商蹲在货架旁，手机里不断弹出品牌方的催款消息和商超的压价通 知，额头上的汗珠混着焦虑砸向地面——这是当下无数饮品经销商的缩影。他们卡在品牌方与消费市场的缝隙之间，利润被反复压榨，生存空间日益逼 仄。 渠道的碎片化更让传统经销商手足无措。商超客流锐减，社区团购和即时零售却凶猛蚕食市场，货架上的饮料还没捂热，消费者已转向直播间秒杀或外卖 30分钟达。仓库里，保质期仅剩三个月的乳品堆成小山，临期损耗率飙升，而品牌方的新品仍在源源不断压来。不少经销商自嘲道："我们像是一群困在 旧地图里的人，拼命奔跑，却找不到新大陆。" 这边经销商的库存积压利润萎缩，那边品牌方并没有收缩战线而是加速推新，一时间，电解质水赛道硝烟弥漫。 去年，统一重启海之言系列，不仅增加了产品口味，还新推出了海之言等渗电解质水。这款等渗电解质水一经上市，就凭借其性价比收获了广大消费者的 一众好评。农夫山泉在推出紫色助眠尖叫的同时又推出了尖叫专业等渗系列饮料，其中特别添加海盐成分，入口有淡淡的咸味，更加贴合运动后补充电解 质的需求。康师傅也不遑多让，推出无限·电"电解质水，加入战 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of Nongfu Spring (09633.HK) to "Strong Buy" due to sufficient potential and acceleration catalysts [1][6]. Core Views - Nongfu Spring is positioned as a leading player in the beverage industry, with a strong brand and solid channel foundation. The company is expected to achieve steady growth in the long term, particularly in the packaging water and sugar-free tea segments [6][3]. - The report anticipates that the company's market share in packaging water will steadily increase, driven by the high-frequency demand for drinking water and the rising packaging rate in China [6][3]. - The sugar-free tea segment, represented by the "Oriental Leaf" brand, is expected to benefit from the health trend and has significant growth potential, with the company's market share remaining stable at over 70% [6][3]. - The report highlights the company's proactive marketing strategies and product matrix expansion, which are expected to enhance sales performance during the peak season [6][3]. Financial Summary - Main revenue projections for Nongfu Spring are as follows: - 2024: 42,896 million - 2025E: 49,356 million (15.1% YoY growth) - 2026E: 55,196 million (11.8% YoY growth) - 2027E: 60,933 million (10.4% YoY growth) [2][3]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to grow from 12,123 million in 2024 to 17,932 million in 2027, with corresponding YoY growth rates of 0.4%, 17.2%, 13.5%, and 11.3% [2][3]. - The report maintains EPS forecasts of 1.26, 1.43, and 1.59 for 2025-2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 28, 25, and 23 [6][3]. Target Price - The target price for Nongfu Spring is set at 48 HKD, with the current price at 38.9 HKD, indicating a potential upside [3][6].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of Nongfu Spring (09633.HK) to "Strong Buy" due to sufficient potential and acceleration catalysts [1][6]. Core Views - Nongfu Spring is positioned as a leading player in the beverage industry, with a strong brand and solid channel foundation. The company is expected to achieve steady growth in the long term, particularly in the packaging water and sugar-free tea segments [6][3]. - The report anticipates that the company's market share in packaging water will steadily increase, driven by the high-frequency demand for drinking water and the rising packaging rate in China [6][3]. - The sugar-free tea segment, represented by the "Oriental Leaf" brand, is expected to benefit from the health trend and has significant growth potential, with the company maintaining a stable market share of over 70% [6][3]. - The report highlights the company's proactive marketing strategies and product matrix expansion, which are expected to enhance sales performance during the peak season [6][3]. Financial Summary - The main financial indicators forecast a revenue increase from 42,896 million in 2024 to 60,933 million in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.4% [2][13]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to grow from 12,123 million in 2024 to 17,932 million in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 11.3% [2][13]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 1.08 in 2024 to 1.59 in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [2][13]. - The report sets a target price of 48 HKD, with the current price at 38.9 HKD, suggesting a potential upside [3][6]. Market Positioning - Nongfu Spring is strategically positioned in high-growth segments such as packaging water and sugar-free tea, which are expected to drive long-term growth [6][3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its product offerings and marketing strategies to capture market share and respond to consumer trends effectively [6][3]. Conclusion - The report concludes that Nongfu Spring has strong long-term growth potential, with the upcoming peak season likely to catalyze accelerated performance, justifying the upgrade to a "Strong Buy" rating [6][3].

Group 1 - Eastroc Beverage has laid the foundation for a new production base in Hainan, which will enhance its operational capacity and efficiency in the coastal regions [1][3] - The new facility will cover over 200 acres and involve an investment of 1.2 billion yuan in smart production lines, expanding Eastroc's production bases across twelve provinces [3] - In 2024, Eastroc Beverage's revenue is projected to exceed 15.8 billion yuan, with significant growth in sales from Hainan and coastal areas [3][8] Group 2 - Genki Forest is also expanding, having established the world's largest production base in Tianjin, which will serve the North China and Northeast markets [5] - Genki Forest has built factories in six locations across China, effectively covering the national market [5] - Nongfu Spring is investing 1.5 billion yuan to build a water plant in Hainan, alongside other production bases in Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Tibet [7] Group 3 - The trend of building factories among leading beverage brands is driven by strong performance in their financial results, providing confidence for capacity expansion [8] - Eastroc Beverage's net profit increased by 60%, while Genki Forest's sales are expected to exceed 10 billion yuan in 2024 [8][10] - Building factories allows companies to reduce logistics costs, improve regional penetration, and enhance product quality control [10][11] Group 4 - The article discusses the advantages of both heavy asset and light asset business models in the beverage industry [12] - Light asset models, like that of IFBH Limited, focus on outsourcing production and logistics, allowing for lower fixed costs and operational flexibility [14][15] - However, reliance on outsourcing can lead to risks in product quality and supply chain management, as seen in the case of IFBH [18] Group 5 - The experiences of brands like Genki Forest and Eastroc Beverage illustrate the importance of balancing light and heavy asset strategies as they grow [20][21] - Companies must assess their development stage to determine the appropriate investment in production capabilities [20][21]

Company Overview - Nongfu Spring Co., Ltd. is a leading company in the packaged drinking water and beverage industry in China, established in 1996 and listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in September 2020[5][6]. - The company operates a dual growth engine strategy focusing on packaged drinking water and beverages, supported by a nationwide sales network covering all provinces and municipalities in China[8]. - The company emphasizes the use of high-quality raw materials, sourcing all packaged drinking water from quality natural water sources containing natural mineral elements[7]. - Nongfu Spring has implemented a multi-brand strategy, enhancing its brand communication capabilities and establishing itself as a super brand in the PRC soft beverage market[8]. Financial Performance - The company reported significant growth in revenue and market share, although specific financial figures are not provided in the extracted content[10]. - The company recorded total revenue of RMB 42,896 million in 2024, representing an increase of 0.5% compared to 2023[24]. - Profit attributable to the owners of the parent amounted to RMB 12,123 million in 2024, remaining generally flat compared to 2023[26]. - The overall profit/loss ratio maintained an industry-leading position at 28.3%[24]. - Revenue from packaged water products declined by 21.3% for the full year, despite maintaining the number one market share in China[25]. - The company plans to distribute a final cash dividend of RMB 0.76 per share, amounting to approximately RMB 8,547 million[27]. Product Development and Innovation - Future outlook includes continued expansion in product categories such as tea beverages, functional beverages, and juice beverages, aiming to capture a larger market share[5]. - The company is actively involved in research and development for new products and technologies to enhance its competitive edge in the market[10]. - The tea beverage products gained more consumer acceptance, becoming a strong engine for the company's growth[28]. - The company plans to continue improving and innovating in product R&D technology, aiming to evolve into a R&D-oriented enterprise in the beverage industry[28]. - The Group relaunched its purified drinking water product in April 2024, aiming to help consumers distinguish between purified and natural water[48]. Market Strategy and Expansion - The company plans to further expand its market presence through strategic partnerships and potential acquisitions in the beverage sector[10]. - The company aims to explore overseas markets to develop its products internationally and create new growth opportunities[169]. - The company will deepen efforts in agricultural collaboration, expanding successful projects into tea farming and other agricultural areas[29]. Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Initiatives - Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) initiatives are a focus area, reflecting the company's commitment to sustainable practices in its operations[10]. - The company has established a robust ESG governance structure, integrating sustainable development into its corporate strategy and community investment policies[176]. - During the reporting period, 99% of plastic packaging for water and beverage products was recyclable, with a target of 100% recyclability by 2025[180]. - Nongfu Spring focuses on sustainable water use through water-efficient design, upgrades, and management practices[180]. - The company actively engages in philanthropic activities in disaster relief, poverty alleviation, educational improvement, and support for public sports[177]. Corporate Governance - The company adheres to high standards of corporate governance and has adopted sound governance and disclosure practices[188]. - The Board consists of nine Directors, including five executive Directors and three independent non-executive Directors[196]. - The Company has established three specialized committees: Audit Committee, Nomination Committee, and Remuneration Committee[199]. - The Board oversees corporate governance, risk management, and compliance with legal and regulatory requirements[200]. Employee Relations and Incentives - The total number of employees exceeded 20,000, with total employee benefit expenses amounting to RMB 4,301 million[142]. - The employee share incentive scheme allows a maximum of 5% of the total issued share capital to be acquired by the trustee, with individual participants limited to 1%[144]. - The company believes that granting awards to experts and senior technical personnel will enhance long-term development and contributions to the group[159]. Challenges and Future Outlook - In 2024, the company faced challenges due to online public opinions affecting brand reputation and sales of packaged drinking water products, but remains confident in its capabilities[166]. - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized boosting consumption and improving investment returns as key tasks for 2025, indicating a stable growth trend in the consumer market[164].

Group 1: Company Overview - Nongfu Spring, once a symbol of bottled water in China, is facing stagnation in growth, with a slight revenue increase of 0.5% and a net profit increase that is negligible for 2024 [1] - The bottled water business, previously a stronghold for Nongfu Spring, has seen a decline, with a 6.7% drop in revenue and a 3.8% drop in net profit in the second half of the previous year [1] - The tea beverage segment, represented by Dongfang Shuye, has surpassed bottled water in revenue for the first time, achieving a remarkable 32.3% year-on-year growth [2] Group 2: Market Competition - The tea beverage market has become highly competitive, with numerous established and emerging brands vying for market share, leading to increased pressure on Nongfu Spring's tea business [3][4] - New brands are employing aggressive distribution strategies, such as credit sales, to quickly gain shelf space, which poses a challenge to Nongfu Spring's market position [4] - Despite maintaining a leading position in the tea market, Nongfu Spring's growth rate has slowed from 59.5% in the first half of the previous year to 32.3% [4] Group 3: Strategic Responses - In response to market pressures, Nongfu Spring has launched a 1.5L version of Dongfang Shuye to capture the "water substitute" demand, which has seen immediate success [6] - The company is investing in tea production facilities, with a commitment of 100 million yuan to build five initial tea factories, aiming to enhance its overall system capabilities [8] - Nongfu Spring is also exploring international markets, particularly in developed countries, to expand its tea beverage business [9] Group 4: Financial Performance - The bottled water segment's revenue for 2024 is reported at 16 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 21.3% year-on-year, with operating profit margins dropping from 36% to 31% [25] - The aggressive pricing strategy for green bottle water has not yielded the expected market growth, leading to issues of low profit margins and high inventory [25] Group 5: Brand Management - Nongfu Spring's sales strategy has been characterized by a strong presence in retail channels, with sales personnel actively engaging with store owners to secure shelf space [12][16] - However, the company's aggressive tactics have led to some negative perceptions among retailers, with reports of pressure to prioritize Nongfu Spring products over competitors [14][22] - The contrasting attitudes within the company regarding the value of green bottle water have created confusion among retailers, impacting overall brand perception [22]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has raised the target price for Nongfu Spring (09633.HK) to HKD 33 while lowering the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 to 2027 due to slower-than-expected recovery in market share for packaged drinking water [1] Group 1: Sales and Market Share - The market share recovery speed for Nongfu Spring's packaged drinking water is slower than anticipated, leading to a 7% to 8% reduction in sales forecasts for 2025 to 2027 [1] Group 2: Profit Margins and Operating Expenses - The gross margin forecast has been slightly increased by 0.3 percentage points for 2025 to 2027 due to a higher contribution from the tea beverage segment, which has a higher gross margin [1] - Operating expense ratio forecasts have been lowered by 0.9 percentage points for the same period due to operational leverage effects [1] Group 3: Earnings Per Share and Target Price - As a result of the above adjustments, Morgan Stanley has decreased the EPS forecast for Nongfu Spring by 2% for 2025 to 2027 [1] - The target price for Nongfu Spring has been raised by 3%, from HKD 32 to HKD 33, maintaining a rating of "in line with the market" [1]

Group 1 - Hong Kong consumer stocks strengthened in the afternoon, with Mixue Group (02097.HK) rising over 7% to reach a new high [1] - Gu Ming (01364.HK) increased by more than 8%, contributing to the overall positive trend in the sector [1] - Other companies such as Nongfu Spring (09633.HK) and Cha Baidao (02555.HK) also experienced gains [1]