当前包装水行业已进入价格、渠道、品牌、水源等多维度博弈竞争阶段，行业集中度较高，头部企业优 势相对稳固，2023年行业CR5市占率已接近60%。预计未来行业竞争将逐步从过去的价格战向价值战转 型，头部企业有望凭借资源、渠道、品牌及产能优势，持续提升市场份额，中小品牌则面临淘汰压力逐 步退出市场，行业集中度进一步提升，包装水头部企业有望受益。 产品创新与场景细分提速，价值升级持续深化 随着消费需求的多元化与精细化，包装水行业产品创新与场景细分成为重要增长抓手。产品端呈现两大 主线：一是品质升级，头部企业加速向矿泉水、天然矿泉水赛道布局，依托优质水源地资源打造高品质 产品，通过天然、健康等核心卖点抢占消费者心智;二是形态与包装创新，小容量便携装适配户外、办 公等即时场景，家庭大包装依托高性价比成为居家消费主流。场景端持续细分化发展，母婴水、运动 水、茶饮搭配水等精准场景产品快速崛起，进一步挖掘细分消费潜力，推动行业价值持续提升。 风险提示：经济下行、食品安全、原料价格波动、消费需求复苏低于预期等。 健康意识升级为驱动力，包装水行业规模稳步扩容 消费健康意识升级是驱动包装水需求增长的核心动力，近年来随着居民健康认知 ...

食品饮料 2026 年 02 月 11 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 包装水行业发展稳健，头部分化孕育结构性机遇 ——行业点评报告 | 张宇光（分析师） | 张恒玮（分析师） | | --- | --- | | zhangyuguang@kysec.cn | zhanghengwei@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030003 | 证书编号：S0790524010001 | 数据来源：聚源 -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 2026-02 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《复苏态势明朗，板块预期乐观—行 业周报》-2026.2.8 《修复趋势确立，坚定板块布局—行 业点评报告》-2026.2.5 《茅台春节需求韧性超预期，大众品 底 部 改 善 趋 势 明 确 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2026.2.1 zhanghengwei@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524010001 健康意识升级为驱动力，包装水行业规模稳步扩容 消费健康意识升级是驱动包装水需求增长的核心动力，近年来随着居民健康认知 不断深化，消费偏好 ...

Group 1 - The stock price of Nongfu Spring increased by 0.9% in the Hong Kong market [1]

来源：新浪基金∞工作室 2月11日，港股消费（159735）收盘跌0.57%，成交额7423.11万元。 港股消费ETF（159735）成立于2021年5月25日，基金全称为银华中证港股通消费主题交易型开放式指 数证券投资基金，基金简称为港股消费。该基金管理费率每年0.50%，托管费率每年0.10%。港股消费 ETF（159735）业绩比较基准为经估值汇率调整的中证港股通消费主题指数收益率。 港股消费ETF（159735）现任基金经理为李宜璇。李宜璇自2021年5月25日管理（或拟管理）该基金， 任职期内收益-12.98%。 最新定期报告显示，港股消费ETF（159735）重仓股包括泡泡玛特、百胜中国、安踏体育、农夫山泉、 万洲国际、海尔智家、申洲国际、美的集团、李宁、蒙牛乳业，持仓占比如下。 股票代码股票名称持仓占比持仓股数（股）持仓市值（元）09992泡泡玛特10.42%44.64万7568.02万 09987百胜中国9.09%19.83万6601.94万02020安踏体育7.76%77.46万5635.55万09633农夫山泉6.50%111.58 万4720.60万00288万洲国际5.37%497. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand relationship is expected to improve, with a focus on investment opportunities related to CPI recovery [5] - CPI has shown a positive growth trend since October 2025, with food CPI also reflecting improvements [5] - The report highlights specific sectors such as liquor, dairy, and consumer goods that are poised for recovery [12][14][15] Summary by Sections Supply-Demand Relationship and CPI Recovery - PPI transmission combined with consumer recovery is likely to sustain the CPI improvement trend, with CPI growth recorded at +0.7% in November and +0.8% in December 2025 [5] - Food CPI showed a year-on-year increase of +0.2% in November and +1.1% in December, with fresh vegetable prices rising significantly [5][11] - The report anticipates that the CPI recovery will continue into 2026, driven by PPI improvements and supportive domestic demand policies [5] Sector-Specific Insights - **Liquor**: The price of Feitian Moutai has rebounded, with prices reaching 1710 RMB for whole boxes and 1660 RMB for individual bottles as of February 8, 2026, indicating strong demand during the Spring Festival [12][14] - **Dairy**: The average price of fresh milk has stabilized around 3.04 RMB per kilogram, with expectations for upward movement in 2026 due to supply adjustments and improved demand from demographic policies [14] - **Consumer Goods**: Prices for certain products, such as frozen foods and snacks, are beginning to recover, with companies like Anjijia adjusting promotional strategies to enhance profitability [15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies within the consumer goods sector, including Dongpeng Beverage, Nongfu Spring, and others, as well as key players in the liquor sector like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu [21]

Core Insights - The article highlights the top short-selling ratios and amounts for various companies, indicating significant market sentiment against these stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Top Short-Selling Ratios - Lenovo Group-R (80992) has the highest short-selling ratio at 91.38% with a short-selling amount of 52.16 thousand [2]. - Ping An Insurance-R (82318) follows with a short-selling ratio of 83.34% and a short-selling amount of 200.88 thousand [2]. - Xiaomi Group-WR (81810) has a short-selling ratio of 80.95% with a short-selling amount of 597.54 thousand [2]. Group 2: Top Short-Selling Amounts - Tencent Holdings (00700) leads in short-selling amount at 29.69 billion, with a short-selling ratio of 15.25% [2]. - Alibaba Group-W (09988) has a short-selling amount of 23.66 billion and a short-selling ratio of 19.56% [2]. - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) ranks third with a short-selling amount of 10.16 billion and a short-selling ratio of 21.54% [2]. Group 3: Top Short-Selling Deviation Values - Ping An Insurance-R (82318) has the highest deviation value at 36.33%, indicating a significant difference from its average short-selling ratio [2]. - Xiaomi Group-WR (81810) follows with a deviation value of 34.41% [2]. - China Resources Beer (00291) has a deviation value of 33.89% [2].

Core Viewpoint - The strong rebound of Moutai has ignited the entire liquor sector, with significant price movements and market reactions indicating a potential recovery in the industry after a prolonged adjustment period [1][2][4]. Group 1: Moutai's Market Performance - Moutai's stock price surged by 8.61% on January 29, marking the highest single-day increase since February 2025, and its market capitalization returned to 1.8 trillion yuan with a trading volume exceeding 26.3 billion yuan [2]. - The stock price of Moutai has rebounded over 18% from its low, approaching a critical technical bull market position, which could influence the extent of its price increase and the nature of the rebound [4]. - The price of Moutai's 53-degree 500ml flying Moutai is psychologically anchored at 1499 yuan, and if the market price falls below this level, Moutai may implement strategies to stabilize prices [4]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Consumer Behavior - The upcoming Spring Festival is traditionally a peak consumption period for liquor, and the introduction of iMoutai has helped stabilize prices after a previous decline [1][4]. - There is a notable increase in demand for flying Moutai during the Spring Festival, but post-holiday, consumer purchasing behavior may revert to more rational levels, potentially affecting prices [4]. - The overall liquor industry is showing signs of recovery, with first-tier brands like Moutai indicating a gradual exit from the adjustment phase, which could positively impact the pricing structure across the sector [7]. Group 3: Collectible Liquor Market - The collectible value of Moutai's zodiac-themed products is under scrutiny, with some experts advising caution regarding their investment potential, as past releases have shown significant price fluctuations [5]. - The market for zodiac-themed Moutai has seen substantial price adjustments, with the latest batch experiencing a drop from 2750 yuan to 2280 yuan per bottle [4][5]. - Comparatively, other collectible products, such as the zodiac water from Nongfu Spring, have demonstrated even higher premium rates, raising questions about Moutai's relative value in the collectible market [1]. Group 4: Economic Context and Future Outlook - The liquor industry has experienced multiple adjustment cycles since 1999, with the current cycle, which began in 2022, being notably prolonged, reflecting broader economic challenges and shifts in consumer demand [8][9]. - The recovery of the liquor sector is closely tied to macroeconomic indicators, with expectations for a turning point in the industry by the second half of 2026 as inventory levels normalize [9].

来源：深科技 福布斯2026年1月中国富豪榜新鲜出炉！ 字节跳动创始人张一鸣以693亿美元身家，首次超越钟睒睒登顶新首富✨ 这份榜单堪称大型"洗牌现场"，满屏都是互联网和硬科技的狂欢，传统赛道彻底被颠覆，咱们熟悉的大 佬们，有人登顶封神、有人逆袭翻盘、有人遗憾离场，每一处名次变动，都藏着当下最实在的财富密 码！ 1． 张一鸣（字节跳动）：693亿美元； 张一鸣成为中国首富背后！抖音、TikTok之外，字节跳动早偷偷押注AI了，豆包和海外版Dola（豆包英 伟版）已经成为张一鸣AI时代的底牌！2026年砸1600亿搞AI，850亿买芯片、750亿建计算中心，天价 抢人才，这波硬砸钱，才是他身家暴涨的关键，纯属长期布局的必然结果~ 2． 钟睒睒（农夫山泉/万泰生物）：680亿美元； 3． 马化腾（腾讯）：627亿美元； 4． 曾毓群（宁德时代）：562亿美元； 5． 丁磊（网易）：449亿美元； 6． 黄峥（拼多多）：424亿美元； 7． 李嘉诚（长江实业）：424亿美元； 8． 郑淑良家族（中国宏桥/山东魏桥创业）：327亿美元； 9． 何享健家族（美的）：327亿美元； 10． 雷军（小米）：304亿美元； ...

马年限定版茅台，和马年限定版农夫山泉究竟谁更有收藏价值？ 在i茅台上发售的53%vol 500ml贵州茅台酒（丙午马年）经典版，包装侧面出现错别字，二十八星宿中的"昴"被错写成了"昂"，日前茅台发布声明回应 称"是供应链失误，并给出就近更换和自行补缺的两种解决方案"。有意思的是，随着茅台的回应，二手平台部分标价1899马茅很快就飙升至2800元。 作为A股市值最高的知名企业之一，茅台的市值早已突破万亿，而这次简单的失误竟然是出售16天后由消费者发现。随着错版马茅的溢价，很多网友甚至 怀疑是不是茅台的故意为之，毕竟一瓶酒的溢价近千元，快溢价出一瓶飞天茅台出来了。 不过要论产品的溢价，茅台显然不是最狠的一家，20元一瓶的农夫山泉的"生肖水"溢价到170元，溢价超过8倍。正在发售的马年生肖水，单瓶二手售价约 20元。而以前发售的生肖水，年份越早价格越贵。目前一套11个款式"全家福"，二手价1888元左右，一瓶差不多170元。生肖水没有官方售价，考虑采用 玻璃瓶+长白山莫涯泉＋特殊元素设计，姑且一瓶定价10元。这么算下来，生肖水溢价率轻松甩飞天茅台好几条街。 茅台引发的焦点新闻还不止这一则。近日，贵州茅台参与Spac ...

Group 1: Canned Food Industry - The State Administration for Market Regulation has released draft recommendations for national standards for canned food to enhance industry standards and applicability [3] - The canned food industry in China is diverse but lacks innovation, particularly in attracting younger consumers, with Fujian province accounting for 36% of national production [3][4] - The industry is upgrading through the development of self-heating foods, high-end products like bird's nest canned food, and customized dining products [3][4] Group 2: New Beverage Trends - The sugar water shop has become a new franchise trend, with brands like Mai Ji Milk and Zhao Ji Chuan Cheng rapidly expanding, but facing challenges such as high costs and low-frequency consumption [5] - The Chinese herbal health water market is experiencing a sales surge due to hot weather, with products like red bean and coix seed water gaining popularity, potentially exceeding a market size of 10 billion yuan [6] - The beverage market is accelerating its health trend, with low-sugar and no-sugar products becoming standard, while traditional giants face declining sales [7] Group 3: Functional and Innovative Products - Vitamin drinks are gaining popularity among young consumers for their health benefits, with sales of Nongfu Spring's water-soluble C100 increasing by 34% year-on-year [9] - The rise of banana-flavored drinks from major brands reflects a growing market potential, leveraging high national recognition and health trends [10] - The global nutrition and health industry is set for a peak in raw material innovation and technological iteration by 2025, with a focus on standardized and stable ingredients [11] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Brand Strategies - The "medicinal food" trend is becoming a significant market, with a projected scale of 370 billion yuan, driven by policy support and technological advancements [12] - The rise of Chinese herbal health water reflects a shift in consumer behavior towards health-conscious products, but the industry faces challenges like exaggerated claims and quality control [14] - The dairy industry is shifting focus from consumer markets to B2B markets, driven by the growth of new consumption formats like tea and coffee [15] Group 5: Brand Developments and Challenges - The beverage brand Commune is preparing for an IPO, aiming to expand its presence while facing challenges like declining same-store sales and rising costs [24] - The acquisition of the beverage brand Dayao by KKR marks a shift towards capitalizing on efficiency over emotional branding, as the brand faces challenges in national expansion [25] - Dongpeng's coffee brand has achieved a market share of 14%, positioning itself among the top three in the ready-to-drink coffee market through a focus on quality and targeted marketing [26]