谁还关心海底捞

Core Viewpoint - The restaurant industry, particularly hot pot chain Haidilao, is facing significant challenges, with a decline in stock price from a peak of 76.82 HKD to around 17 HKD, indicating a loss of investor confidence and growth potential [1][2] Financial Performance - Haidilao's 2024 revenue and net profit are projected to grow only 3.1% and 4.6% year-on-year, respectively, reflecting limited growth prospects [1] - The average revenue per store is estimated at 30.81 million CNY, with a profit of over 3.47 million CNY per store [4] - The company reported a 20.4% increase in takeaway revenue, reaching 1.254 billion CNY, but this only accounts for 2.9% of total revenue [7] Store Operations - Haidilao opened 62 new restaurants in the past year but closed or relocated 70, resulting in a net decrease of 19 self-operated restaurants, totaling 1,355 by the end of 2024 [5] - The average table turnover rate has stabilized at 4.1 times per day, but maintaining this rate may become increasingly difficult due to service quality issues [5] Market Strategy - The company has initiated a franchise model to tap into lower-tier markets, with 13 franchise stores contributing 16.7 million CNY in revenue, indicating limited immediate growth potential [6] - Haidilao is diversifying its brand portfolio with 11 new restaurant brands, but these have not yet shown significant revenue contributions, with new brands averaging 6.5 million CNY in annual revenue [7][9] Consumer Trends - The consumer base is shifting towards younger demographics, with a growing emphasis on fresh ingredients and high cost-performance ratios, which may challenge Haidilao's traditional business model [12][13] - Analysts predict a revenue growth rate of around 7% for 2025, but the lack of new growth narratives and high stock prices may deter investor interest [13]