短期玻璃供需格局仍偏宽松

Group 1 - The short-term glass supply and demand structure remains relatively loose, with current market prices stabilizing and midstream distributors increasing inventory due to a quick recovery in production and sales [1][4] - Weak terminal demand continues to be a significant factor limiting the rise in glass prices, as downstream entities face difficulties in cash flow and slow order recovery, leading to cautious stocking behavior [1][4] - The production capacity of float glass in China is currently at a low level compared to the past five years, with 223 out of 285 production lines in operation, and a daily melting capacity of 158,155 tons, down 9.73% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The recent "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" issued by the central government aims to boost domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market, which may positively impact glass demand if policies are effectively implemented [2] - The plan includes measures to support housing consumption, such as allowing special bonds for purchasing existing homes for affordable housing and potentially lowering housing provident fund loan rates [2] - Current inventory levels in key monitored provinces have decreased by 202 million weight boxes, a reduction of 3.23%, indicating a slight improvement in the market despite ongoing cautious purchasing behavior from downstream entities [3] Group 3 - The overall glass market is characterized by a low profit level, with many companies facing losses; if prices continue to decline, there is a possibility of a further reduction in supply, which could improve the supply-demand environment [4] - The market is expected to experience pressure on prices due to the loose supply-demand structure, while policy expectations and cost support may provide some stability [4] - Future market dynamics will depend on the release of midstream and downstream stocking demand and the effectiveness of real estate policies [4]