Nio stock short interest spikes

Core Viewpoint - Nio's stock experienced a significant decline following a disappointing quarterly earnings report, despite earlier gains due to subsidy announcements. The company's outlook remains uncertain amid increased short selling and potential share dilution from a new offering [1][2][9]. Financial Performance - Nio's Q4 and FY earnings report revealed an earnings per share (EPS) miss and revenues below expectations, leading to weaker guidance [1]. - The stock price dropped to $3.93 by March 27, representing a 24.71% decrease from its YTD high of $5.22 [2]. Analyst Sentiment - Despite recent setbacks, Wall Street analysts maintain a consensus 'hold' rating on Nio, with an average 12-month price forecast suggesting a potential upside of 16.35% [3]. - There is a noted disconnect between analyst coverage and market actions, as the short volume ratio for Nio shares increased sharply post-earnings report, indicating heightened bearish sentiment [4]. Market Activity - The short volume ratio rose from 41.18 on March 21 to 67.71 by March 27, reflecting increased bearish interest among investors [4]. - A recent announcement indicated that Nio plans to offer up to 118.8 million shares outside the U.S., which could lead to approximately 5.77% dilution of existing shares [9][10]. Growth Prospects - Nio has shown year-over-year growth in vehicle deliveries, but this has not translated into improved financial performance, raising concerns amid unstable macro conditions and weak guidance [7]. - The proceeds from the new share offering are intended for research and development, which could serve as a growth catalyst if managed effectively, although benefits may take time to materialize [10][11].