RSPC(002493) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-03-30 04:20Core Viewpoint - The domestic refining industry is experiencing a dual weakness in supply and demand, with international crude oil prices rising due to geopolitical factors and declining inventories, while domestic refining product prices are generally falling due to weak demand [1][2]. Group 1: Refining Sector Performance - The international crude oil market is influenced by U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, as well as OPEC+ production cuts, leading to a 2.96% week-on-week increase in Brent crude oil prices to $73.35 per barrel [2]. - Domestic refined oil prices are declining, contrasting with rising overseas prices, primarily due to weaker-than-expected terminal demand and high refinery operating rates, resulting in slow market inventory digestion [2]. Group 2: Chemical Product Prices - Prices for polyethylene, polypropylene, and other polyolefin products are generally declining, with EVA and pure benzene price spreads continuing to narrow [3]. - Weak demand for styrene has led to further price declines, while products like acrylonitrile and PC maintain stable prices but face squeezed profit margins due to raw material costs [3]. - The MMA market is under pressure from expectations of new capacity coming online, leading to weakened prices and price spreads [3]. Group 3: Polyester Industry Chain - The upstream PX and PTA prices are slightly rising due to support from increasing crude oil prices, while the downstream polyester filament faces dual pressures from increased supply and weak demand [4]. - Weaving enterprises are experiencing high fabric inventory levels, and seasonal weakness in orders for lightweight fabrics is causing low production and sales rates for filament, leading to weak price performance [4]. - The transfer of profits within the industry chain towards the downstream is hindered, highlighting the lack of recovery in terminal consumption [4]. Group 4: Market Structural Divergence - Sulfur prices have recently risen significantly due to tightening supply and demand, contrasting with the general trend of declining refining product prices [5]. - Major players like Sinopec, PetroChina, and Rongsheng Petrochemical dominate the sulfur production market, holding over 70% market share, benefiting from economies of scale and cost advantages [5]. Group 5: Company Performance Divergence - Stock performance among six major private refining companies shows significant divergence, with Rongsheng Petrochemical (+2.22%) and Xin Fengming (+1.70%) seeing stock price increases, reflecting market recognition of their advantages in niche segments [6]. - Conversely, companies like Dongfang Shenghong (-2.26%) are negatively impacted by net outflows of main funds, indicating a competitive landscape that is increasingly favoring leading firms [6].