Citi(US:C) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-03-31 08:48Group 1 - Citigroup has revised its expectations regarding the implementation of a 25% Section 232 tariff on imported copper in the U.S., moving the anticipated timeline from Q4 2025 to Q2 2025, which is expected to shorten the window for U.S. copper imports and eliminate factors contributing to tightening in non-U.S. physical markets [1] - The bank has lowered its short-term outlook for non-U.S. copper prices, adjusting the 0-3 month target price from $10,000/ton to $9,500/ton, anticipating that the COMEX and LME forward curves will adjust to reflect the new tariff [1] - The potential for tariffs to be implemented as early as April 2025 could significantly impact the LME and COMEX arbitrage opportunities, as U.S. import demand is expected to collapse in the short term [2] Group 2 - Citigroup anticipates that the domestic stockpiling of scrap copper in the U.S. and export restrictions may persist longer, maintaining a degree of supply tightness in non-U.S. markets, which could limit the downside for copper prices [3] - The bank projects that due to insufficient domestic processing and secondary refining capacity, scrap copper prices may need to decline significantly to stimulate exports, which would keep supply tight in non-U.S. markets, particularly China [3] - Overall, the bank expects physical demand to decline due to increased U.S. import tariffs and economic growth challenges, forecasting that copper prices will fall to an average of $8,800/ton in the second half of 2025 [3]