Core Insights - Deutsche Bank's report indicates that Zhenkunhang (ZKH.US) exceeded expectations for Q4 2024, with total revenue and adjusted net profit surpassing market forecasts by 4% and 19% respectively [1] - Based on strong Q4 performance, Deutsche Bank raised Zhenkunhang's revenue and adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 by 3% and 55%, anticipating an 11% year-on-year revenue growth and an increase in adjusted net profit margin by 0.4% [1] - The management expressed confidence in rapid revenue recovery and achieving profitability for the full year 2025, following the completion of business adjustments [2] Revenue and Profitability - For FY 2024, total GMV is expected to decline by 5% year-on-year, with net income remaining flat; however, excluding the impact of business adjustments, total GMV is projected to achieve double-digit growth [1] - Key verticals such as electrical, electronics and communications, new energy vehicles, transportation, and public utilities are expected to perform well, with GMV growth exceeding 20% year-on-year in 2024 [1] Margin and Growth Drivers - The company anticipates a 1-1.5 percentage point increase in gross margin for its 1P business over the next few years, aiming for a long-term target of 20% (16% in 2024), while the commission rate for 3P business is expected to remain around 11% [2] - Key drivers for margin improvement include economies of scale, increased share of private label products, and overseas expansion [2] Artificial Intelligence and Digitalization - Zhenkunhang's "AI Material Manager" has standardized over 2 million material entries with an accuracy rate exceeding 90%, while the "AI Expert Assistant" has improved order processing efficiency by 23% for over 12,000 enterprises [2] - The growth of AI technology is expected to continue benefiting the company by enhancing service efficiency and accelerating customer penetration [2] Overseas Expansion - Since the launch of ZKH's independent website in the U.S. in December 2024, the number of registered customers has surpassed 1,500, with 412 SKUs currently available and an additional 1,800 SKUs set to launch [2] Private Label Growth - In 2024, Zhenkunhang's private label GMV grew by 29%, accounting for 6.7% of total GMV (up from 4.9% in 2023), with a long-term goal of increasing this share to 30% [3] - The company aims to enhance its product innovation and research capabilities to support this growth [3] Industry Positioning - Zhenkunhang is recognized as a leading industrial procurement service platform in China, providing one-stop procurement and management services while facilitating digital transformation in the supply chain for the manufacturing sector [3]
Deutsche Bank维持震坤行“买入”评级 目标价4.5美元并看好其长期增长潜力