BANK OF CHINA(601988) 智通财经·2025-04-02 01:15Core Viewpoint - The performance of Chinese bank stocks improved in Q4 2024, with a preference for the four major state-owned banks due to their lower risk exposure to non-housing retail loans and less impact from fixed income market fluctuations [1][6]. Group 1: Profitability and Growth - In Q4 2024, operating profit and profit growth accelerated to 6.8% and 2.5% year-on-year, respectively, driven by a reduced narrowing of net interest margin (NIM) and strong growth in non-interest income [2]. - Non-interest income grew by 10% year-on-year in Q4, primarily due to investment income, while fee income remained flat with a decline of 3% year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Asset Quality - Retail loan non-performing loan (NPL) ratio increased by 18 basis points year-on-year, while corporate loan NPL ratio decreased by 15 basis points [3]. - The proportion of retail loans in the loan portfolio decreased from approximately 34% in 2023 to about 33% in 2024, with the overall NPL ratio declining from 90% in 2023 to 81% in 2024 [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - For FY 2025, revenue growth is expected to moderately improve compared to FY 2024, with a smaller narrowing of NIM anticipated despite a further expected decrease in loan market quotation rates (LPR) [4]. - Fee income is expected to improve in 2025 as capital market and consumer-related fees recover, although retail asset quality may continue to deteriorate [4]. Group 4: Preferred and Avoided Stocks - The preferred order of banks is the four major state-owned banks > China Merchants Bank > CITIC Bank > other banks, with China Construction Bank being the top pick due to stable earnings and a strong balance sheet [6]. - The banks to avoid include Ping An Bank, Minsheng Bank, and Postal Savings Bank of China due to their higher risk exposure to non-housing retail loans and significant asset quality risks [6].